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Going for 450


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The National Teams Congress is approaching, to get everyone in the right mood, here's a BAM problem:

 

[hv=pc=n&n=sq95hqt5da8642cat&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1c(Clubs or Bal)2s3d(5+ hearts INV+)4spp5dp?]133|200[/hv]

 

Do you want the better fit or do you want 30 per trick?

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while we have no idea if p is sacrificing or bidding to make, we do know p began with inv+. This greatly increases the chance p is bidding to make and p had to be somewhat cautious because we have never had the opportunity to define our hand (ie the hand could be a misfit). Our hand is so pluperfectly? perfect I would actually bid 6c (cant be misunderstood since with a self sufficient club suit I could have bid 5c over 4s) in an attempt to reach a grand slam. It is BAM so the risk factor is minimal and if p 5d bid makes much sense 6d should be simple and 7d very close.
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Partner is doubling most of the time with 5-5 and a good hand I think esp at this vul (eg x AKxxx KQxxx xx given earlier seems like a double?). It seems like he will often be 6-5. It's a very weird problem but the options are 6D or pass, not 5H or pass. Normally with 0553 partner would bid 4N if they didn't have enough defense to X, but I think with nebulous club that doesn't really work. Not sure what I'd do.
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[hv=pc=n&n=sq95hqt5da8642cat&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1c(Clubs or Bal)2s3d(5+ hearts INV+)4spp5dp?]133|200|The National Teams Congress is approaching, to get everyone in the right mood, here's a BAM problem:

Do you want the better fit or do you want 30 per trick?[/hv]

I rank

  1. 6 = Hoping that partner has at least x A K x x x K J x x x x x.
  2. 5 = In case partner has x K J x x x K Q J x x K x.
  3. Pass .

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I rank

  1. 6 = Hoping that partner has at least x A K x x x K J x x x x x.
  2. 5 = In case partner has x K J x x x K Q J x x K x.
  3. Pass .

 

I don't fancy 5 that much on 2 for a couple of reasons.

 

1: potential diamond ruff

2: 2 rounds of spades and you may lose control if hearts are 4-1.

 

If hearts are 4-1 and they find the ruff, 5 may go off too, but the singleton diamond lead with the other hand having A looks far from improbable.

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Normally with 0553 partner would bid 4N if they didn't have enough defense to X, but I think with nebulous club that doesn't really work.

Right, our general philosophy is to bid on the assumption that partner opened a weak NT, so the prototypical shape for 4NT would probably be 0544.

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I don't fancy 5 that much on 2 for a couple of reasons.

 

1: potential diamond ruff

2: 2 rounds of spades and you may lose control if hearts are 4-1.

 

If hearts are 4-1 and they find the ruff, 5 may go off too, but the singleton diamond lead with the other hand having A looks far from improbable.

Aren't these the sorts of considerations that should easily convince you at IMPs but must be weighed very carefully at BAM?

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Aren't these the sorts of considerations that should easily convince you at IMPs but must be weighed very carefully at BAM?

 

I feel the number of hands where 5 is better than 50:50 and 6 doesn't make is pretty small, so you're aiming at a very small target, although 5 in practice will make more often than its theoretical odds.

 

Whether you should play 5 or 6 on the other hand is not so clear, I'd probably try 6 depending on what I knew about partner.

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