MP play dilemma

[shyams]

[hv=pc=n&s=sa6hkq982dat8ca93&n=sj97hat65dq5ckj54&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=pp4h(Final%20contract)ppp]320|240[/hv]

 

MPs: N/S bid uncontested to 4♥. West leads a low diamond {if it matters, this was on BBO vs robots}.

 

Trick 1 goes ♦2-♦5-♦J-♦A. We have 10 tricks on the lead, so this is about making 11 or 12.

If you draw trumps next, West has ♥J73 and East ♥4; East will discard two small spades.

 

What is the preferred line for overtrick(s)? I chose something and was left feeling foolish. I was wondering if it was luck or poor technique.

[WesleyC]

I can't see anything better than just drawing trumps, ♣A and then a club to the ♣J.

 

That will get you 12 tricks if the clubs are ♣Qxx - ♣xxx (17.7%). If you were playing IMPs in 5♥, you'd be better to try ♣A, ♣K and then leading up to the ♣J which gives you an extra 5% chance of making 11 tricks (♣Qx offside). However given it's MPs and you're in what looks like the normal contract, you pretty much have to go all out for the maximum.

[PhantomSac]

Ace of clubs club to the jack. As my father once taught me "when in doubt always try to make all the tricks in MP." Not sure about the soundness of that rule but I still use it lol. Important is that if there is Tx of clubs onside we can still make 5 by crossing in trumps after winning the SA and unblocking the C9 and crossing in trumps.

[shyams]

I thought the possibility of 12 tricks was low (under 20%) and decided to focus on the best line for 11. So, at trick 2, I played back a diamond to East's King. I won the spade switch with the Ace and drew trumps in 3 rounds.

 

Now I discarded a spade from dummy on the winner diamond and exited with my last spade. After 8 tricks, the position was:

[hv=pc=n&s=sh98dca93&n=shtdckj54]133|200[/hv]

If East wins the 8th trick (although bots don't often misplay this), I am guaranteed 11 tricks. And if West wins as is likely, I make 11 tricks if West had at least one of ♣Q or ♣10 (is that 75%?)

 

Sadly, clubs were 3-3 -- East had ♣Q10x and I made 10 tricks. Anyone who tried the finesse were able to discard their spade loser on the 13th club to make 11 tricks. For my efforts, I got ~5% of the MPs on this board :(

[Stephen Tu]

It's just bad calculation as to the best line for overtricks. Going for endplay is best way to get 3 tricks in clubs *if it is necessary to win 3 tricks in clubs without losing any in clubs*. But on this hand you are fine losing a trick in clubs, because you can pitch a spade on the third club winner as long as you are doing this immediately after drawing trumps. And your line is not even the best for 3 tricks in clubs, the best is K then ace then 9 to the J if the T hasn't shown up yet. This is like 85%, Q onside, or Q doubleton/singleton off, T singleton/doubleton on, clubs 3-3. But the best play for 3 tricks in clubs gives up on 12 tricks too often. You only gain vs. CA low to the J when Q doubleton is offside, but you lose the 12th trick on q third onside, which is a lot more frequent.

 

So your bad score was deserved.