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Which suit to tackle?


phoenix214

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[hv=pc=n&s=sahkt432dq32cj932&n=sk32ha5dakj54caq4]133|200[/hv]

You are in 6NT - played by S, W overcalled 2S over your 2(Strong)-2 Action. Lead SQ.

Dealer:W

Colors:Non-vul vs Vul.

Scoring - Teams, 8 board match.

Plan the play

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[hv=pc=n&s=sahkt432dq32cj932&n=sk32ha5dakj54caq4]133|200[/hv]

You are in 6NT - played by S, W overcalled 2S over your 2(Strong)-2 Action. Lead SQ.

Dealer:W

Colors:Non-vul vs Vul.

Scoring - Teams, 8 board match.

Plan the play

 

I don't really see how playing on hearts can gain, apart from a miracle layout or a 3-3 break. Also they will likely force you to commit yourself in clubs as well. I guess I am missing something.

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If the diamonds are 5-0 I think there's no chance, so we have to assume there are 5 diamond tricks. Added to that there are AK, AK and A. Two more needed. 3-3 hearts and you're home and dry. Too easy! One extra club is assured, don't need to finesse. 3-3 clubs? Risky to test either clubs or hearts, in any case. I think you need to count opponent's hands, to see what the distribution is. Of course West might have very long spades, which would help.

 

Another thought. You have 31 points. Would west have overcalled with less than nine? Certainly you can place the missing king.

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to the Q at trick 2.

 

If it loses you'll still have a chance for 3 by a 3-3 split or finesse if West started with a stiff.

 

If it wins, like billw55, I'll try a Club to the 9.

 

You also have chances for double squeeze if West guards and East , a - simple squeeze if only East can guard both, a - simple squeeze if only West can guard both, or possibly a guard squeeze if West guards both , and has a honor.

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Thinking a bit more. Play for west with K 10... You lead 9 from hand. West has to cover, else you finesse Q for the 12th trick. So West plays 10 and you play Q from dummy. Now can you work a squeeze in clubs and hearts? As I see it, you're in the wrong hand...

 

Unless you know West, I don't think you can assume anything about their hand. I know players who would overcall there on QJTxx or even xxxxxx and nothing else; I know players who will never overcall in that seat with only 9 points; I know players who routinely psych in that situation; I even know players whose partners (should) alert that they frequently or even routinely psych 2 in that position.

 

I go for clubs, because when the finesse is off in clubs, you still have squeeze chances after attacking clubs. (Btw, the squeeze chances against West involve spades.) If you attack hearts and they are not 3-3, you still need the club finesse since you don't have the late entry to hand that makes a squeeze with hearts possible. If the club finesse works first round, then I reevaluate. (Maybe my analysis is wrong, but that would be my first approximation at the table.)

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First let's assume diamonds are not 5-0:

Club to the Q i) It holds: so unless West has KTxx(x), we have made it, just playing a club to the 9 will do. If West does turn up with two club tricks we can try and play them for singleton heart honour, or QJ doubleton, the former probably being more likely, but I'm sure we can play some diamonds and get a count. But wait, we can always make it if West has KTxx, through some sort of weird strip squeeze/guard squeeze hybrid (provided we have a count). Suppose West has something like QJTxxx Hx x KTxx, now after playing a club to the queen we can cash 5 diamonds (pitching two hearts from hand), West cannot through a heart or a club, is this would be immediately fatal, so they give up four spades. Now we cash the K, pitching a club, West is forced to also pitch a club. We play A, and a heart to the T. West is now endplayed. So we score: 2 spades, 2 hearts, 5 diamonds, 3 clubs. This line will also work if QJxxx Hxx x KTxx, and provided you read the cards correctly you will still make if West has fewer than 4 clubs. This is all very nice, but it would be a bit ridiculous to go down when clubs are 3-3 (and you misread the cards), just because you were trying to be flash. This amazing ending doesn't work if you concede a club earlier. So a crucial question is: what card did East play at trick 1? If they gave a clearly readable count card, you might actually consider taking this line.

ii) It loses. Presumably they will play a spade back. Now you have a choice between cashing a top club and finessing the 9, or playing for the drop, but again - why commit? Cash the A and cash some diamonds. If East is 3334 then they will need to discard well (two hearts - otherwise the double squeeze is coming). If East is 3424, they are getting squeezed in the round suits. If East is 2xx4, there will be a non-simultaneous double squeeze, with hearts as the pivot suit. In short, play winners, guess the ending. But what if West turns up with 4 clubs (Why is life so hard sometimes?) now we should try for one of singleton heart honour or QJ doubleton with West.

 

Diamonds are 5-0 with Wast having them:

Again we start with club to the Q i) it holds. A will drop the king unless it really isn't your day.

ii) It loses. Win the return, cash A, finesse the 9, today West has a singleton heart honour.

 

Diamonds are 5-0 with East having them:

Club to the Q i) It holds. A and a club, the layout is kind and you can make 3 club tricks. Your twelfth is coming from a red suit squeeze against East, or a double squeeze with hearts as the pivot suit.

ii) It loses. Try a line similar to the above one.

 

So your play changes slightly if diamonds are 5-0 (you need to be a bit more optimistic), so just cash one diamond first.

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That was my immediate thought also, but then we need to play the club suit for zero losers. We need Kx onside or hearts 3-3. The chances in the club suit must be a bit better.

Personally, I think clubs should be played upside down, meaning lead low from dummy first. If East has the K and hops, you have twelve tricks assuming diamonds are not 5-0.

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I think I am going to test the diamonds first. I win in hand and play a diamond to the King. If both diamonds are 5-0, it appears I must rely upon the club hook and 3-3 hearts. If diamonds are 4-1 or 3-2, I can play a second diamond to my Queen, noting whether diamonds are splitting evenly or not as this might be relevant in the end position. Regardless, I now play a club and hook with the Queen. If this loses (as I expect) and a spade comes back, I win the spade return in Dummy and cash Ace and King of hearts. If the Queen and Jack do not come down, I continue with a club to the Ace, run the diamonds, and look for a squeeze if the count does not make the club layout clear.
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I would start with a low club for a finesse by Q.

1) Should it make, then A to catch eventual stiff honour in West. If this is not the case, 5 letting opponents taking the trick. Now 3-3 hearths or Kx can both be tried.

2) Provided K wins trick 2, A and A will follow to check for stiff honour or Tx with West, and then all diamonds to count West hand and squeeze East in -.

Odds seem quite high, the final guess in both scenarios shall also consider Txx or Qx with West.

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North's last 5 cards are small spade, small heart,3 clubs. South has K hearts and 4 clubs.

North plays a small heart to K. If West has only one spade left then finesse Club and throw him in

with small spade to lead away from Kx of clubs. If W has kept two spades Finesse Club , and then

Ace of clubs drops the K.

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