Is this a 50-50 guess?

[zenbiddist]

So you're in 6♠ South on the ♦K lead:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=saqj874hjda8cq654&n=sk652haq2dt42cajt&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1sp2n(GF%20raise)p3h(shortage)p3sp4dp4hp4np5cp5sp6sppp]266|200[/hv]

 

Tiny details: IMPs. No hesitations or questions from the opps during or after the auction. Fairly quick lead... Is there anything to go on here? I find when I ask experts I usually find there is - so here you are.. Thanks!

[Mbodell]

You can get slightly better if you play for either stiff K of club or stiff or doubleton K of hearts, no? If you choose to try the heart dropping you get the extra chance of a cover or hitch when playing the J up, although not against reasonable players who should have heard shortness and looked at the board :).

[PhantomSac]

Yeah if you hadn't shown heart shortness I'd lead the HJ since they might need to cover if our hand was different (5224 with the CK?). At least there is some chance.

 

Anyways I am not sure if this is legit but LHO with H+D length would be more likely to bid with the HK than the CK (eg, x Kxxxx KQJxx xx might michaels or bid 2H, but x xxxxx KQJxx Kx wouldn't?), so I'd probably take the club hook after trying to ruff out Kx of hearts. But yeah it's basically 50-50.

[PhantomSac]

You can get slightly better if you play for either stiff K of club or stiff or doubleton K of hearts, no?

 

Trying to drop the stiff CK before taking the H hook seems like a donation. You are just trying to go down 2 for basically no gain (stiff K of clubs despite being very unlikely a priori, requires LHO to have presumably some D length (DK lead), plus 5 clubs, and we are missing 9 hearts, so we can assume some hearts). I would guess that catering to the stiff CK is very -EV, even including the chance that they don't bid slam, and the chance that they take a different hook from us.

[WesleyC]

I'd draw trumps, try the ♥J and unless I got a sniff that the ♥K was onside, win the ♥A, ruff a heart and fall back on the club hook. Even a solid LHO might think they have a problem holding ♥KTx or similar. The faster you can do this the better!

 

If you're playing a team match (rather than swiss pairs) another advantage of this line compared to ♣A and then heart finesse, is that you will go only 1 down and save 3 IMPs if both Kings are offside (in what looks like a relatively normal contract).

[lorserker]

Some farfetched speculation: we know that a given card is more likely to be in the hand which has more cards in that suit. For west to hold more hearts than his partner (and be favorite to have the K) he needs to have 5, but in clubs he only needs 4. Since we already know that he has some length in diamonds, it is harder for him to have another 5 card suit, so go for the clubs.

 

Im not sure how reasonable what i just wrote is, what do others think? :)

[zenbiddist]

A friend of mine just noted the absence of a lead-directing double of 5♣.

[WesleyC]

Some farfetched speculation: we know that a given card is more likely to be in the hand which has more cards in that suit. For west to hold more hearts than his partner (and be favorite to have the K) he needs to have 5, but in clubs he only needs 4. Since we already know that he has some length in diamonds, it is harder for him to have another 5 card suit, so go for the clubs.Im not sure how reasonable what i just wrote is, what do others think? :)

 

I'm not convinced that West's lead marks him with much extra diamond length. On one hand giving him the KQ and dividing the other diamonds evenly does suggest more diamonds, but if he does hold KQ to 6+ Diamonds, a side king and some shape he would often bid over 1S, so we have to discount some amount of those hands. Also if West does have long diamonds, your extra chance of ♥Kx (or KTx misdefence) also increases.

 

And even if you did know he has longer diamonds, the average proportion of clubs and hearts between the two hands should still be pretty similar - you could test this theory with a simulation.

 

A friend of mine just noted the absence of a lead-directing double of 5♣.

 

This depends on your opponents but I suspect the chance of RHO making a lead directing double on King empty would be pretty close to zero in most Australian fields so I wouldn't read too much into that.

[lorserker]

you could test this theory with a simulation.

 

Ok, simulation says that west is not more likely to hold the !CK than the !HK :)

[phil_20686]

WHat about a layout like west having x KT9x KQJx xxxx?

 

In this case three rounds of trumps might already bring him under some pressure. He can afford one easy diamond pitch, but if he were to mistakenly let go a club then you might be safe enough to cash two more spades, since they would surely not be deep enough to pitch a club from Kx, and you can be confident that the fourth club will not need to be ruffed. If he pitches two more easy clubs you might convince yourself that you know the layout and so take the heart finesse.

 

Maybe this is a bit of a pip dream, but I would win the ace of diamonds immediately and cash three rounds of trumps. Against weaker opposition I might well find a reason to convince me to choose the heart finesse.

[cherdano]

Purely on the technical merits the club finesse is right since you only go down one if both kings are off. But I agree the lack of lead-directing double of 5♣ is the biggest clue - RHO knows partner will likely have to choose between the minors, and with ♣K, but at most the J in diamonds, and declarer known to lack ♣A she would be very likely to double.

[miamijd]

If E-W are good players, you have nothing to go on. W isn't going to cover the Jh knowing it's a stiff. Nor will he cover the Qc with AJT in dummy (better to have QTxx in hand and AJx in dummy; then West has more of a problem). East isn't going to make a silly lead-directing X holding K empty fourth or fifth. For those of you that do this sort of thing, please note that it helps declarer more than it helps your partner. This hand is a great example of that.

 

From a pure "make the contract" standpoint, the best play is Qc overtaking with the Ace and then hook the heart. The Kc is more likely to be stiff than the Kh is to be stiff or doubleton. But the additional benefit is tiny and not worth risking 3 IMPs for an extra undertrick. From an "expected IMP return" perspective, it appears that the the normal play would be Ah and ruff a heart (once a year H will be 7-2 with K doubleton) and if nothing wonderful happens, then hook the club.

 

Sometimes it really is a guess :)

 

Good luck,

mike

[gnasher]

We have three reasons to finesse in clubs, and no reason to finesse hearts. That doesn't seem like a guess to me.

[Fluffy]

We have three reasons to finesse in clubs, and no reason to finesse hearts. That doesn't seem like a guess to me.

 

Do you care to elaborate a bit?

[gnasher]

Do you care to elaborate a bit?

Look higher up the thread: LHO didn't show a two-suiter, RHO didn't double 5♣, and finessing in hearts costs an extra trick when it's wrong.

[lamford]

Should we not lead the jack of spades at trick two and find out whether West cheats by giving a slight twitch? Then we can lead the jack of hearts and rise with the ace if he gives a slight twitch and run it if he does not.

[Caitlynne]

Pretty close to 50%, but I think the heart finesse is slightly better than relying on the club finesse. Why? RHO had the chance to double 4H for a lead when the opponents have 9 card heart length missing the King AND Jack. They have only 6 card club length and are missing only the King, so the failure to double 5C for the lead does not offer quite as strong an inference.

[WesleyC]

Pretty close to 50%, but I think the heart finesse is slightly better than relying on the club finesse. Why? RHO had the chance to double 4H for a lead when the opponents have 9 card heart length missing the King AND Jack. They have only 6 card club length and are missing only the King, so the failure to double 5C for the lead does not offer quite as strong an inference.

 

Given that LHO has already shown shortness in hearts, doubling 4H for a lead seems like a really poor plan!

[zenbiddist]

Should we not lead the jack of spades at trick two and find out whether West cheats by giving a slight twitch? Then we can lead the jack of hearts and rise with the ace if he gives a slight twitch and run it if he does not.

 

Sadly I knew lefty to have an even tempo during play

[nige1]

duplicate deleted

[nige1]

Yeah if you hadn't shown heart shortness I'd lead the HJ since they might need to cover if our hand was different (5224 with the CK?). At least there is some chance. Anyways I am not sure if this is legit but LHO with H+D length would be more likely to bid with the HK than the CK (eg, x Kxxxx KQJxx xx might michaels or bid 2H, but x xxxxx KQJxx Kx wouldn't?), so I'd probably take the club hook after trying to ruff out Kx of hearts. But yeah it's basically 50-50.

Agree. It costs nothing to lead ♥J intending to play ♥A whether or not LHO covers. And then ruff a ♥ in case ♥K is doubleton.

 

Provided you give opponents time to think at trick one and don't shotgun ♥J at trick two, it's probably safe to finesse when LHO hesitates and then plays low. If the finesse loses after LHO's performance, a good director is likely to protect you.

[jogs]

I don't understand the problem. What was the opening lead? Take the club hook after drawing 2 trumps. If it is on, didn't we make this hand? Then take the heart hook if the ♦A is still controlling diamonds. If not, only take the heart hook if the club hook failed.

[zenbiddist]

I don't understand the problem. What was the opening lead? Take the club hook after drawing 2 trumps. If it is on, didn't we make this hand? Then take the heart hook if the ♦A is still controlling diamonds. If not, only take the heart hook if the club hook failed.

 

♦K lead, which was irritating, as it means you have no tempos up your sleeve - first failed hook means you're off. So it's a question of any subtle clues as to which hook is the best one to take first...