Try this 4 Hearts

[Fluffy]

[hv=d=n&v=b&n=sakq742ha5da6ckq2&s=s103hq1097642d93c94]133|200|Scoring: IMP

N - E - S - W

1♠ -2♦ -2♥ -ps

3♦ - X -3♥ -ps

4♥ -ps -ps -ps[/hv]

 

The lead is the ♦J, when you play ♥A you only catch ♥3 and ♥8.

[the hog]

Can afford to lose 2H and 1C. So now cash A & K of S and play a 3rd S piching a D regardless of whether rho ruffs or not.

[awm]

I'd win the ♦A, then play ♥A and (after both follow), lead a heart towards hand.

 

My line goes down when I have ♥KJx behind me (losing 2 hearts, 1 diamond, 1 club). I will make on any other lie of the cards barring something bizarre like clubs 7-1 or spades 5-0 with LHO holding the club ace and singleton heart, etc.

 

The other possible line seems to be cashing the spades, which will succeed any time spades are 3-2, or if the singleton spade is with Kx or singleton heart.

 

In a vacuum, it would seem that hearts KJx behind declarer is about 1/4, whereas spades breaking 4-1 is about 1/3, with the chance of short spades with the wrong heart holding improving the odds so that both lines are comparable.

 

However, we have to listen to the bidding. Righthand opponent overcalled 2♦. For my line to fail, he needs to hold singleton heart. This means his values are all in the other suits, barely enough to scrape together a two-level overcall. If LHO has four diamonds and KJx hearts, I would expect a 3♦ raise which never occurred. So it seems like for my line to fail, RHO has six or more diamonds to the king and queen, singleton heart, and around 10-11 high card points at most. I think the majority of opponents would bid 3♦ over 1♠ with such a hand. This tilts the odds in favor of continuing to draw trumps.

[Guest Jlall]

Close case...

 

In this cases:

 

Jx

x

KQxxxx

AJxx

 

Jxx

x

KQxxxx

AJx

 

etc. This type of hand makes spades the right play.

 

In these cases:

 

x

KJx

KQxxxx

AJx

 

x

Jx

KQxxxx

AJxx

 

Jxxx

Kx

KQxxxx

A

(admittedly unlikely but possible)

 

heart is right.

 

 

In my judgement the first hand type is more likely, but i could be wrong. Anyways, would play spades.

[Free]

Can afford to lose 2H and 1C. So now cash A & K of S and play a 3rd S piching a D regardless of whether rho ruffs or not.

If he ruffs with the J, you can overruff and lose 1♥, 1♣ and 1♦ :D

[the hog]

Can afford to lose 2H and 1C. So now cash A & K of S and play a 3rd S piching a D regardless of whether rho ruffs or not.

If he ruffs with the J, you can overruff and lose 1♥, 1♣ and 1♦ :ph34r:

Huh, what difference does it make if you discard the D loser and so have no Ds to lose or whether you overruff the HJ and thus lose only 1H and 1D and 1C?

[Fluffy]

What hapened in the table is kinda irrelevant.

 

But as you can see you have to decide between the 3/4 (Actually less, cos of vacant spaces), of playing trumps, or the realy on ♠3-2, or 4-1 and the guy ruffing with ♥K....

 

Nopes, and that is what actually was hapening at most tables, the second ♠ was ruffed with ♥K, but then he played ♦K and another ♦ promoting ♥J.

 

Still both lines seem pretty close, and would you change your mind if you held ♦10?

[pclayton]

I'm never playing West for a stiff spade with a low diamond lead here. I'll at least cash one high spade, with the intent of cashing 2 more. If the J falls on my right, I can still change tacks.