Transfer Preempts

[inquiry]

Just a question about the 6♦ slam hand. Your suggested auction was:

 

3♦-3♥-3NT-5NT-6♦

 

Apparently 3♦ followed by 3NT shows a minor two suiter with four losers, and 5NT is pick a slam. But wouldn't the following hands for south also rebid 3NT:

 

x

Ax

AKxxx

AKxxx

 

x

x

AKxxx

AKxxxx

 

-

xx

AKxxx

AQJxxx

 

-

Ax

AKxxx

ATxxxx

 

Honestly I would have no great desire to be in slam with the north cards opposite any of these hands. With 2-1 in the minors it seems awfully aggressive by north to force to slam despite holding good cards. Unless there's some way your methods can find the SIXTH diamond, which is really what makes slam so good, this one seems unconvincing. Curiously, my relay auction starting with 1♣ has a fair chance to be unimpeded and find 6♦ on this hand.

The 6♦ hand shows, indirectly, the problem with the MisIry bid, that needs to be considered" That is, when you transfer with the strong hand (say five-five), your partner's suit can get lost. This doesn't happen when you have the suit your partner doesn't transfer too, if you don't want it too. You can reject the transfer and bid your suit (or jump in your suit to show solid type suit). But on the 5♦ hand, north is not strong enough for a forcing 3♠ bid.

 

Here was why I shot 6♦. Over 3NT, north has to take a gamble. He can pass or bid some number of diamonds. At this point, however, everthing else is a slam try in a minor. That is, if he failed to bid 3♠, there is no reasonable way to get to spades now. So to pass 3NT or to bid 5♦ both gamble that 4♠ is not the right spot. 3NT surely is playable, as you have extra strength here, and is a normal result as the result show. However, opposite as little as

 

x

Ax

AKxxx

AKxxx

 

You drew up, even with a 4-1 diamond split, you have 1C ruff, 4D, 2H. 2S. amd 2C, so there is chance for either an elopment with your fifth trump, or to set up a long spade, or a squeeze.

 

As an aside, this analysis wasn't so much for what it the right way to bid the found hands. it was more of a frequency thing.. (weak versus strong) in response to richard's questions. I lacked the time to do Saturday;s yet.. I had better do them quick before they get lost... otherwise, we can look at next saturdays.