technical vs practical

[nige1]

Nobody leads from Tx against a NT slam. I challenge you to construct a hand where that looks right on this deal.

There must be millions of such hands e.g.

♠ J x x x ♥ Q x x x ♦ T x ♣ J x x.

 

 

 

 

[phil_20686]

There must be millions of such hands e.g.

♠ J x x x ♥ Q x x x ♦ T x ♣ J x x.

 

Maybe you should poll it, but I would be very surprised if a diamond was a majority lead here. I would lead a heart. Against slams with no invite, leading aggressively and setting up your trick is usually the way to go.

 

Also, you had to give lots of slow cards in this example, because most people would much prefer to lead from xxxx or even xxx than xx if they are going passive against a slam. It isnt that likely that you are on lead against a slam and have no suit > 2 cards with no honours.

[PhilKing]

Leader can have ♦T9.

[nige1]

The defender with long hearts is more likely to hold the queen. Hence, if the knave loses to the queen, then the likelihood that West has sole heart control increases.

Since the hand with more hearts is more likely to have the Q, it must be the case that the hand which has the Q is more likely to have long hearts.

The simulation just demonstrated that this can be the case even when the hand has slightly fewer vacant places.

Nobody leads from Tx against a NT slam. I challenge you to construct a hand where that looks right on this deal.

There must be millions of such hands e.g. ♠ J x x x ♥ Q x x x ♦ T x ♣ J x x.

Maybe you should poll it, but I would be very surprised if a diamond was a majority lead here. I would lead a heart. Against slams with no invite, leading aggressively and setting up your trick is usually the way to go. Also, you had to give lots of slow cards in this example, because most people would much prefer to lead from xxxx or even xxx than xx if they are going passive against a slam. It isnt that likely that you are on lead against a slam and have no suit > 2 cards with no honours.

Leads are a matter of judgement. If phil_20686 really believes that nobody (except me) would lead a ♦, then he can can poll it.

[nige1]

It may be because I am a simple soul but Nige1 seems to have the best approach. It is easy to do (not much guesswork) and still works against a reasonable amount of opps possible holdings. The play to trick 2 low to the J (vs low to the spade T) has the same 50% chance of making and then the vienna coupe type squeeze can work against both opps. The compound type squeeze set up by playing a spade to the T (and losing) is much more limited since it is possible for both opps to guard hearts and even to try it requires a guess as to when and how to perform it (maybe that's what scares me the most). Nige1 works when either opp has 4d and the spade K OR when lho is guarding both dia and hearts .there is nothing the opps can do and it requires no guesswork merely counting the suits.

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Thank you gszes. I concede that chances are similar -- even better if East panics or you are sure that West has ♦ length. For example,

After winning the ♦ lead, If you lead a ♠ to the ♠T and ♠J, you can win the return and reduce to the 3-card ending on the left

When you lead the last ♣, you discard dummy's ♦ unless it is good

Unless ♠Q is good, you rely on dummy's hearts[/hv]

[Fluffy]

If anyone wonders contract was totally hopeless from the start, LHO had ♠KJ ♥Q9x ♦1098x ♣J9xx

[Lovera]

If anyone wonders contract was totally hopeless from the start, LHO had ♠KJ ♥Q9x ♦1098x ♣J9xx

As card lie and on hipothesys that clubs run(=three in W) my solution, because 6 is controlled by E, is right. Infact on last club the hearts will be eliminated from the table(=is the same to have extra longness in spade) and now we can lead ♠ A and little and W must return in diamond to rescue Queen of spade.