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Awkward guess


shevek

  

18 members have voted

  1. 1. Your bid

    • 4H - red suit finesses
    • Pass - too rich
    • X - it shows this, right?
    • 3NT - shut out East, no D ruff


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3N

 

Preempts work so this is a guess especially since the range of the overcall is so vast. I opted for 3n primarily to reach game. There is indeed some risk here but at NT all of my offensive power is pretty much safe from attack and the opps opener behind me is no big deal. We will also have a very clear idea on how to proceed once we see the dummy given the bidding. The main downside is there might be no play but if p at least has a decent heart suit lho will be hard pressed to find an x so the "disaster" scenarios are severely limited

and that vul game bonus sure is nice. x as cards is a real gamble here since the overcall range is so vast we could get really hammered with them making 3sx when p passes with no where to go.

 

3n = 8 4h = 7 pass = 5 x = 4

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At IMPs I am a timid passer. A speculative double is tempting. It might even work half the time so I might try it at MP.

 

In my opinion 3NT is outright suicidal. We rate to have almost exactly half the deck and we don't have much prospect of a second spade stopper. 4H is a gamble on partner having a maximum and us getting in in time to pull trumps before E ruffs diamonds or W ruffs spades but I can imagine it working say 25% of the time, and pushing the opponents to a speculative 4S a similar amount of the time. 3NT doesn't push them to 4S.

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Awkward guess indeed. Opposite a simple 1 overcall game is dubious, especially with that distribution (ops will quickly set up vs 3NT and ruffs vs 4), and X just transfers the guess to partner (who will probably score -730 a bit too often for the X to be good).

 

Against very good opponents, I would pass at IMPs and X at MPs.

Otherwise 4, in case they want to push to 4.

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The full hand:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sa8h642dqjt3ca962&w=sj6hajt3dak98ct83&n=sk5hkq875d764ckq7&e=sqt97432h9d52cj54&d=w&v=b&b=4&a=1d1h3s]399|300[/hv]

 

So 4 is worst, -500, and 3NT gets a lucky +600.

Pass is 100. Some partners will find 3NT if you double.

 

Pd should have a good hand to bid 1 over 1 at IMPs so it looks right to act.

Hope you guessed right.

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