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Cheating Allegations


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Still sad there was not a USA 3 qualifier out of default lol

The question of whether the US should get 1 team, 2 teams or 3 teams never goes away.

 

No other country gets 2 teams. No other country has as large a bridge-playing community. Giving the US the right to send 3 teams, by (for example) making Mexico and Canada play off against US teams, is contrary to how the rest of the world allocates teams....Europe has far more players than the US, Canada, and Mexico combined, and limits teams to 1 per country for the zonal playoff.

 

It would, effectively, bar Canada and Mexico from ever competing in the BB, and while (especially in recent years) one could argue that neither country is very strong, in 1995 Canada won the silver medal and didn't lose to the US by much.

 

Part of the problem is that our best players end up playing for the US. That has been going on since the 1960's and is evident in the BB today, with two of USA2 being Canadians. Imagine how Italy would do if Versace, Laurier et al were eligible to play for the US? Or the UK, if their top pairs all moved to Las Vegas and took up US residency? It is, of course, much easier for Canadians to do that, by virtue of being members of the same ACBL, and being on the bridge circuit in the US.

 

Imagine how better we would be with Demuy, Wolpert, Fred G playing for Canada? We'd still not match up well against the very best teams, but we'd be no pushover even for them.

 

We need a Mrs Lavazza in Canada, I suppose :P We don't have very many wealthy Canadian sponsors, so we don't get to keep the best players home. That shouldn't justify excluding us from the chance to participate.

 

Maybe we need to give the US 3 teams but keep Canada and Mexico still able to compete.

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haha I just wanted USA 3 for selfish reasons... I imagine it would be the team that lost the final of the trials (5 out of 6 lost the final of both trials).

 

Was just kidding, I was laughing with Thomas bessis about what the odds when he was 9th in the euros were of him winning the Bermuda bowl and said really USA 3 should be next haha

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I also want Spain to become African or South American :)

Create a new world division by language with Spain joining South/Central America excluding Brazil (so Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Spain, Uruguay and Venezuela). The new English zone would allow Justin's wish for more USA teams to go too. ;)

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Create a new world division by language with Spain joining South/Central America excluding Brazil (so Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Spain, Uruguay and Venezuela). The new English zone would allow Justin's wish for more USA teams to go too. ;)

Problem: We don't speak English in the U.S. Only the English speak English. Just ask them.

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Create a new world division by language with Spain joining South/Central America excluding Brazil (so Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Spain, Uruguay and Venezuela). The new English zone would allow Justin's wish for more USA teams to go too. ;)

 

Sorry, did Guyana and Belize cease to exist ? There are more non-Spanish speaking countries in south/central America than just Brazil.

 

Also because of the way the Netherlands and France administer their former colonies, could they legitimately do this ? (or Spain join the African federation due to Ceuta/Melilla).

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Sorry, did Guyana and Belize cease to exist ? There are more non-Spanish speaking countries in south/central America than just Brazil.

I skipped details for stylistic reasons but posted the (hopefully) complete list of countries using Spanish instead. No offense intended to any BBFers from the omitted countries. :o

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Helene if Bulgaria and Poland finally are declared to have been cheating. Can you please tell us the chances that England was cheating as well given that the other 5 teams who qualified did so? (NOTE to idiots: This is a joke)

Depends which data we have by now.

 

Suppose we had originally no clue about how many teams were cheating and we took five random teams which turned out all to be cheating.

 

Then I would say that our prior belief was that a random team has a probability p of cheating and that p could be any number between 0 and 1, all with the same probability. Having been told that five randomly selected teams all were cheating, we should now expect that 6/7* of all teams are cheating. Alternatively, if we had tested five random pairs so that we now expect 6/7 of all pairs to be cheating, the chance that at least one English pair is cheating is 0.988**.

 

It could be that some teams have already been found not to be cheating, in which case our estimate becomes lower.

 

It could also be that the 5(?) detected pairs were not randomly selected but were apriori believed to be particularly likely to be cheating. In that case our estimates will also be lower.

 

And finally, it could be that there has already been some investigation of the English pairs so the fact that they haven't been caught yet is some evidence for their innocence.

 

On the other hand, we are probably much more likely to fail to detect a cheating pair than to convict a pair that is in fact innocent.

 

Maybe Boye has already exhausted all available evidence so although most pairs are probably cheating, we may never catch more than the 3-5(?) pairs he has already detected.

 

* 6/7 is the expectation of a beta distributed variable with parameters (1,6)

 

** 0.988 is the probability of X>0 where X is beta-binomial with n=3 and shape parameters (1,6)

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I didn't understand any of that but I lolled a lot anyway

Of course, Helene replied to a joke with a joke.

 

Nevertheless, there is a serious part to this. Helene showed how "math wonkiness" can be used in these cheating questions. People talk about things like correlation between positions of trays and desired leads. But correlation is only one mathematical term that could be used. There are other mathematical tools that might be more useful in the analysis of the data. Probably they should already be recognized before we gather data.

 

I think that in this process it is very important to let the bridge experts handle the bridge part (e.g. "What opening lead do I desire?"). But it is equally important to let the math experts do the "math wonkiness".

 

It won't do us much good if the bridge analyses are great, but the statistics are done by amateurs who don't get the "math wonkiness".

 

Rik

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The WBF allowed Poland to play. The team has played well to reach final. No allegations against the players concerned. So why make an issue out of it now?

 

It's a real slap in the face for the players that voluntarily withdrew.

 

The players actually should attend so as not to spoil it for the organisers. I don't expect that Poland will get much applause for their gold or silver medal.

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