Has U.S. Democracy Been Trumped?

[kenberg]

We are in a tough spot, but not hopeless.

Ballots will be counted, some will be recounted, there will some huffing and puffing, but now it appears that come January we will have Biden taking office. That's not certain, and Biden is correctly counseling patience and restraint, but it seems to be the way to bet it.

Then what?

 

I mentioned that Becky was walking with a friend who said that the economy had been good but you can't spend money of you are dead so she voted for Biden. Yes. Covid and the economy, address that. Address it realistically.

 

I also suggest not much mentioning Trump. Many of us are very tired of hearing Trump, Trump and more Trump. We look forward to not hearing from him or of him.. Of course we still will, but the less the better. Biden needs to speak about Biden's plans for the future, we are all more than aware of the recent past.

 

And then we need to reconcile, to whatever extent we can. That requires something from everyone. I have mentioned before that when I was 14 the minister of my church took me aside to tell me that I had to get my parents to come to church more often so that they would not burn in the fires of hell. Ok, he probably said what he believed to be true, but it can hardly be a surprise that the result was not that my parents started coming to church but rather that I stopped. We really need to be a little cautious about condemnation.

 

There is a lot to be done and we need to get together on some of it. Not possible? Well, that would really be too bad.

[y66]

What is the thinking in the walking group regarding future fiscal policy? I hope they are demanding more fiscal stimulus to keep the economy going as their fellow walkers Jay Powell at the US Federal Reserve and Christine Lagarde at the European Central Bank are doing.

[PassedOut]

Pennsylvania called for Biden by the media. Good to know, and a big relief of tension.

[shyams]

[cynic mode]

I guess it is time now for the Supreme Court of the USA to step up and declare PA elections null & void.

After all, the election officials disobeyed a Court order on Republican observers, thereby permitting Biden supporting staff in the counting centres to stuff the ballots for Biden.

[/cynic]

 

Whew! Finally, there is clarity on the results. Hopefully, this remains final and the moron in the White House doesn't succeed in starting a full-scale civil war.

 

It is unfortunate that the Senate appears to have remained in GOP control though.

[kenberg]

What is the thinking in the walking group regarding future fiscal policy? I hope they are demanding more fiscal stimulus to keep the economy going as their fellow walkers Jay Powell at the US Federal Reserve and Christine Lagarde at the European Central Bank are doing.

 

 

 

I just asked Becky "What is the thinking in the walking group regarding future fiscal policy?" When she finished laughing I asked her if she wished to make a further comment and she said no.

[y66]

From Sam Stein at HuffPo (2012):

 

WASHINGTON — As policy pursuits go, none has had more consequence for the Obama administration than the stimulus: Not only did the American Recovery Act determine the size and scope of the economic mending, it established the ideological battle lines across which many of the subsequent legislative battles were waged inside the White House.

 

There has been no shortage of literature to dissect how President Obama handled the stimulus debate. But a new book by Noam Scheiber of The New Republic, “The Escape Artists,” sheds new light on the matter.

 

As Scheiber writes, members of the president’s economic team felt that if they were to properly fill the hole caused by the recession, they would need a bill that priced at $1.8 trillion — $600 billion more than was previously believed to be the high-water mark for the White House.

 

The $1.8 trillion figure was included in a December 2008 memo authored by Christina Romer (the incoming head of the Council of Economic Advisers) and obtained by Scheiber in the course of researching his book.

 

“When Romer showed [Larry] Summers her $1.8 trillion figure late in the week before the memo was due, he dismissed it as impractical. So Romer spent the next few days coming up with a reasonable compromise: roughly $1.2 trillion,” Scheiber writes.

 

As has now become the stuff of Obama administration lore, when the final document was ultimately laid out for the president, even the $1.2 trillion figure wasn’t included. Summers thought it was still politically impractical. Moreover, if Obama had proposed $1.2 trillion but only obtained $800 billion, it would have been categorized as a failure.

 

“He had a view that you don’t ever want to be seen as losing,” a Summers colleague told Scheiber.

 

“The Escape Artists” is a richly reported look at how continuous efforts on the part of Obama and his top aides to avoid being “seen as losing” resulted in precisely such losses. Culled from interviews with more than 250 people (many of whom were interviewed on multiple occasions) the book is, as its subtitle states, an examination of “how Obama’s team fumbled the recovery.” It’s an indictment that Scheiber, at times, extends to the president’s political and communications teams, whom he depicts as continuously operating off of different assumptions and playbooks.

 

Chief among the examples of the administration’s failures is the stimulus itself. When Summers made the final presentation to the president’s then-chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, Scheiber writes, “It reflected what he deemed the best course that was politically feasible ... Yet because Emanuel and the president assumed Summers was largely giving them [economic advice], they believed they were closer to the ideal than they actually were.”

 

If that had been the only misstep, things might have gone more smoothly. But the White House also overestimated the support it had on the Hill. Two administration aides told Scheiber that they thought they could pick 8 to 10, or even up to 15, Republican votes in the Senate. They would end up with three, but not before trading away good policy to win that support and the support of moderate Democrats.

 

The internal disputes that plagued the Obama administration’s economic team during its first years in office were, in the end, more consequential than the ineptitude at vote counting.

Interestingly, Obama's head of OMB, Peter Orzag, who did not agree with Romer, felt strongly that her position should have been communicated in the memo that went to Obama. Also interesting that Summers is now firmly in the camp that is demanding more fiscal stimulus. Too bad he didn't listen to Romer. If not for his timidity, and Obama's, the economy would have bounced back sooner, Clinton would have won handily in 2016 and this thread would not exist.

[y66]

Almost exactly four years ago, a small group of us on the editorial board sat huddled around a laptop in a corner office on the 13th floor of the New York Times building in Manhattan. Like most of the rest of the country, we were in shock. It was around 11:30 p.m., and the early returns that had at first appeared to be an anomaly — Donald Trump doing far better in the rural areas of Florida than the polling had suggested he would — were repeating in North Carolina and Ohio, across Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

 

His margins of victory were paper-thin, but they were real. A former casino owner and reality-TV star who insulted everyone from military families to people with disabilities, who refused to release his taxes and stood accused of sexual assault by dozens of women, who knew nothing and cared even less about governance or international relations, was about to become the 45th president of the United States.

 

We opened the next day’s editorial with three words: “President Donald Trump.” It still seemed so implausible — that title for that man — that we had to put the words on paper to remind ourselves it was real.

 

Four years later, we can at last put another name after that title. President Joe Biden.

 

The former vice president, along with his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris, made their own kind of history during a year in which the unprecedented seems to happen nearly every day.

 

Biden will be the oldest person ever to assume the presidency. Harris will be the first Black woman vice president — and the first woman to be a step from the presidency, period.

 

In the highest-turnout election in more than a century, and in the face of a devastating viral pandemic, Biden and Harris earned the support of an absolute majority of American voters — a remarkable feat, especially against an incumbent whose vote totals, if not his approval ratings, actually grew compared to 2016.

 

But unlike Trump, who lost the popular vote that year by nearly 3 million ballots, Biden is expected to win it by 6 to 7 million. He will finish with close to 80 million votes. And assuming current leads hold up, he will have won support in all parts of the country — from the northeast to the southeast, from the upper midwest to the Sun Belt to the entire west coast.

 

That is a decisive, resounding victory, and it’s worth taking time to celebrate it.

 

We’ve made the case in these pages for why Biden will be a very good president. As he assumes power, we will continue to hold him to his promises, and demand that he do all he can to help the American people emerge from this awful pandemic, and begin to repair the monumental damage his predecessor inflicted on the office, on the federal government, and on American society.

 

Speaking of that damage, there is a dark undercurrent to Biden’s win. As we write in today’s editorial, “Trump’s message of fear and resentment resonated with tens of millions of Americans. Trumpism will not magically disappear. If anything, its adherents will very likely find renewed energy and purpose in marshaling a new resistance movement committed to undermining and delegitimizing the incoming administration.”

 

It’s already begun. Trump is doing exactly as he has threatened to for months, spouting lies and conspiracy theories about rampant corruption and voter fraud — only, of course, in the places where he’s losing. Republican lawmakers who should know better, like Senators Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham, and House minority leader Kevin McCarthy, are parroting the president’s lies, showing Americans once again who they really are.

 

With his colossal ignorance and all-consuming narcissism, Trump has always posed a threat to the country, but perhaps never as much as he does in this moment — defeated, angry and with nothing left to lose.

 

We will be watching closely. You should be, too. The last four years have been a long, intense and often painful test of America’s professed values and its system of government. The next two months will be an even greater test. Assuming we get through it, that is when, as we write, “the real work begins.”

[y66]

Having peered into the abyss of autocratic nationalism, the American people have chosen to step back from the brink. The ballot counting will continue for a few days yet, but the math is what it is: Joe Biden will have the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, and likely many more. President Trump’s four-year assault on our democratic institutions and values will soon end.

 

The contest generated intense passions. In a year marked by the incalculable loss of life and the economic devastation of a pandemic, Americans turned out to vote in numbers not seen for generations, starting weeks before Election Day. Mr. Trump still knows how to draw a crowd — albeit not always to his advantage. In the end, it was Mr. Biden who captured more votes than any presidential candidate in U.S. history, while Mr. Trump captured the second-most votes in U.S. history.

 

The tally comes with disappointment on both sides: for Biden supporters, who hoped for a more resounding repudiation of Trumpism and for a Senate ready to enact their agenda, and for Trump supporters, who hoped for another four years and to chasten their critics. Fortunately for America, Mr. Biden promises to be a president for both sides — a welcome shift from a leader who has spent his tenure dividing the electorate into perceived fans and enemies.

 

While the coming weeks will most likely bring unexpected moves and more dangerous disinformation from Mr. Trump, it is worth taking this moment to raise a glass and breathe a sigh of relief. America gives its citizenry the ultimate responsibility for holding leaders accountable, for deciding what kind of nation this will be. The broad endorsement of Mr. Biden’s message of unity and healing is cause for celebration. Americans have embraced that optimism and Mr. Biden as their next president.

 

Now the real work begins.

 

Come January, Mr. Biden will take office facing a jumble of crises. His predecessor is leaving America weaker, meaner, poorer, sicker and more divided than four years ago. Recent events have laid bare, and often exacerbated, many of the nation’s pre-existing conditions: from the inadequacy of our health care system to the cruelty of our immigration policies, from entrenched racial inequities to the vulnerabilities of our electoral system. Mr. Biden has pledged himself to big thinking and bold action in tackling these challenges.

 

The electoral map suggests recovery will be neither quick nor easy. It is not yet clear what the precise composition of the Senate will be, but Republicans may hold the chamber. The government, like the nation, would remain divided.

 

Mr. Biden has made clear he wants to work across the aisle. That is his nature and his political brand. But today’s political climate is not the same as it was 50, or even five, years ago. Even as he seeks consensus, the new president must be prepared to fight for his priorities. Now is no time for timidity.

 

The American public should be prepared to do its part. People of good will and democratic ideals must not lose interest simply because Mr. Trump leaves center stage. They need to remain engaged in the political process and demand better from their leaders if any progress is to be made.

 

Mr. Trump’s message of fear and resentment resonated with tens of millions of Americans. Trumpism will not magically disappear. If anything, its adherents will very likely find renewed energy and purpose in marshaling a new resistance movement committed to undermining and delegitimizing the incoming administration.

 

Republicans will have to decide whether they will continue to wallow in political nihilism, or rise to meet the challenges of the moment. How Republicans respond to this loss, whether they seek to stoke or to cool partisan passions, will help determine the nation’s — and their party’s — path forward.

 

With the perspective of time, the Trump era is likely to be viewed as an extended stress test for the American experiment. The president did his best to undermine the nation’s democratic foundations. They were shaken, but they did not break. Mr. Trump exposed their vulnerabilities but also their strength. It now falls to Mr. Biden to improve and safeguard those foundations, to help restore faith in our democracy and ourselves — to make America greater than ever before.

[Winstonm]

From Sam Stein at HuffPo (2012):

 

 

Interestingly, Obama's head of OMB, Peter Orzag, who did not agree with Romer, felt strongly that her position should have been communicated in the memo that went to Obama. Also interesting that Summers is now firmly in the camp that is demanding more fiscal stimulus. Too bad he didn't listen to Romer. If not for his timidity, and Obama's, the economy would have bounced back sooner, Clinton would have won handily in 2016 and this thread would not exist.

 

Or they could have just listened to Paul Krugman - sorry Ken!

[Winstonm]

For those of us old enough to remember: From Dana Milbank, the WaPo:

 

 

Our long national nightmare is over.

 

Donald Trump has lost the presidency. Americans have sent packing the man who made the lives of so many a hell for the past four years with constant chaos, unbridled vitriol and attacks on the foundations of democracy. There may be difficulty in the days ahead because of (gratuitous) court challenges and (baseless) claims of fraud. The rage he has induced in supporters and opponents alike will take time to dissipate. But for a moment, let us rejoice: Our democracy has survived.

[y66]

Félicitations, @JoeBiden et @KamalaHarris.

 

Nos pays sont de proches amis, partenaires et alliés. Nous avons une relation unique sur la scène internationale. J’ai vraiment hâte de poursuivre notre travail en ce sens, avec vous.

[y66]

in a congratulatory tweet to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, “It’s time to get back to building bridges, not walls.”

[shyams]

Below is an indicator of how much the betting world does not trust your nation's administration + its much vaunted checks and balances.

 

At this moment, I can bet £100 on Biden and make a £4 return on it.

* Given that Biden's presidency is a certainty such a return is absolutely absurd. Yet, it is there and I can honestly put a few thousand quid to give myself (what should be) a guaranteed return.

* In case someone thinks this is a quack website or that the trading is really thin, I am talking about BETFAIR --- a gamblers trading platform where punters make all bets and there is no "house" to bet against. If I had the money, I could place a bet of £100,000 and the market would barely move despite such a huge amount being placed on one outcome.

* The total amount of money traded on this specific market so far is £ 550 million (roughly US$ 720m). Yes, this is trading volume and the underlying profits or losses would be much lower because the same person would be both backing and laying on a specific outcome which means they only receive the net position as payout.

 

Four years ago, I had a very small amount bet on Hillary to win. I vividly remember that when I woke up on Wednesday morning (i.e. day after election), the market was already trading at 1%. By the time it was noon UK, the yield had gone to zero --- i.e. you could no longer make money by betting on Trump. If we (the outside world) believed USA to be about the same as in 2016, we should have seen yields to be sub-1% at this time. Definitely not 4%!!

 

I realise I am simplifying things there and creating a narrative to fit my theory ("USA's checks & balances are all distorted"). Yet I am not totally wrong -- I am showing you the true monetary cost of your corruption. And the opportunity to make a so-called "risk-free" return on your funds.

 

Finally, NO I am not going to put new money on this market; logic says I should but fear of Trump and the Republicans is holding me back.

 

 

 

 

If you don't believe that the market still pays to bet on Biden, here is a link to a gambling website (caution: do not click if your country has restrictive laws that prohibit your landing on their site)

[pilowsky]

[cherdano]

So. Shall we start a new thread?

[pilowsky]

Probably...

edit...wait, let's discuss it

[johnu]

If Biden indeed wins, I hope his first day one activity is to fire Bill Barr.

Every single Manchurian President political appointee, in the White House, in every government agency should be on notice that they will be fired at 12 noon, January 20, and all career employees should be aware of that fact so they can resist illegal orders in the next 2 months.

 

Every Manchurian President executive order should be nulled and voided at 12 noon, January 20

 

Every Manchurian President effort to corrupt and disable government agencies should be nulled and voided at 12 noon, January 20

[johnu]

So. Shall we start a new thread?

There are still 2 more months when the Manchurian President will still be in office. There is no end to the damage he may cause both domestically and world wide. If anything, he will feel no constraints in acting out his most delusional fantasies. He will fire anybody who gets in his way as there are no political repercussions to worry about.

[y66]

People in New York after the announcement of Joe Biden's election victory Photo: CARLO ALLEGRI / REUTERS

[helene_t]

At this moment, I can bet £100 on Biden and make a £4 return on it.

I would expect that each market has its own definitions of what it means that "Biden won" for payout purposes. Odds 104 that the EC will elect Biden is maybe not absurd. Odds 104 that AP will call it for Biden is of course absurd.

[hrothgar]

Theme song for the next couple months:

 

[Winstonm]

So. Shall we start a new thread?

 

I believe we can close this thread with

[johnu]

The Scariest Days Of The Trump Presidency Could Be The Final 74

 

Daniel Goldman, a former federal prosecutor who served as House Democrats’ lead lawyer during Trump’s impeachment hearings, said he predicts the president and his aides will have a busy 10 weeks or so.

 

“Issue all sorts of executive orders rolling back additional Obama regulations, implement new regulations without proper notice and comment, kneecap and handcuff various agencies, use the levers of power to grease the wheels for his personal financial interests post-presidency,” Goldman said. “And, of course, pardons like you’ve never seen before.”

 

One of Trump’s possible pardons, of course, could be for himself, to remove the threat of federal prosecution for potential crimes he may have committed, both before taking office (bank and tax fraud) and during these past four years (obstruction of justice, for example). It’s unclear whether he is actually permitted to self-pardon, but Trump has shown he is willing to break guidelines and laws when useful for him.

[thepossum]

I can get $2.75 that Twitter will suspend Donald Trump's main/personal/whatever account by the end of the year

 

Serious question though, can anyone advise (in short :) ) any changes in how the WHitehouse and Congress operate consitutionally between election results and inaugurations

[shyams]

I would expect tha each market has its own definitions of what it means that "Biden won" for payout purposes. Odds 104 that the EC will elect Biden is maybe not absurd. Odds 104 that AP will call it for Biden is of course absurd.

 

I've read the rules a few times months ago; the result of this vote alone counts.

 

Rules:

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

 

This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.

 

If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

 

Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.