Has U.S. Democracy Been Trumped?

[Zelandakh]

An anecdote from the UK.

 

The 1970 General Election on 18 June was the first in which 18-year-olds had the vote. My 18th birthday was 3 days earlier, and I was determined to take part (as I have done in every election since).

 

My grandmother lived with us, and I took her along to the polls. She was then nearly 90 (her birthday, in a happy chance for this thread, was 4th July), and one of the 'lucky' women to be first enfranchised in 1918, the year she was 38 - others had to wait another 10 years. I remember how fortunate I was to be exercising the right that so many had to struggle so hard to achieve.

 

Decisions are made by those who show up and make a statement; it's trite but true to say that we can't all rely on someone else to do it for us, even in groups of millions.

But a woman's right to vote was not won at the ballot box but rather from a combination of circumstances (the war meant that women had been running the economy), activism (the women's suffrage movement had been highly effective) and political expediency (the emerging Labour party saw a tactical advantage to greater enfranchisement of both men and women). In general, activism, lobbying and political donations are a much more effective way of achieving change than simply voting. So you are right about not relying on someone else to do it but imho wrong about voting being the means of doing it yourself.

[Zelandakh]

Here's another Fox conspiracy theory - an Arizona voter comes on saying that she voted in person with a "sharpie" and now her online vote tracking status says "canceled". Sounds serious? Well, not exactly. The online status tracks mail ballots so having a status of canceled actually proves that the system is working. If it was not saying canceled then that might be evidence of potential voter fraud in precisely the way dodgy Donald suggested weeks ago, voting both by mail and in-person. Are Fox going to point out the truth here (as they surely know)? Hahahahaha! :lol: :lol: :lol:

[PeterAlan]

But a woman's right to vote was not won at the ballot box but rather from a combination of circumstances (the war meant that women had been running the economy), activism (the women's suffrage movement had been highly effective) and political expediency (the emerging Labour party saw a tactical advantage to greater enfranchisement of both men and women). In general, activism, lobbying and political donations are a much more effective way of achieving change than simply voting. So you are right about not relying on someone else to do it but imho wrong about voting being the means of doing it yourself.

I don't disagree with you about activism and other political activity being crucial elements, and ones to which one's individual contribution generally has proportionately more weight than voting itself, but voting remains the bedrock of political activity, and can be even more critical: for example, Florida 2000 or Georgia right now.

 

Mine was an anecdote, not a detailed analysis of the comparative impacts of different aspects of political activity.

[Zelandakh]

I don't disagree with you about activism and other political activity being crucial elements, and ones to which one's individual contribution generally has proportionately more weight than voting itself, but voting remains the bedrock of political activity, and can be even more critical: for example, Florida 2000 or Georgia right now.

Florida surely proves the reverse to be true. It is almost certainly the case that more people voted for Gore than Bush there is 2000 but due to the voting technology in use, more of the Gore votes got thrown out through no fault of the voters themselves. Moreover Florida represents 6.5% of the US population, and Georgia just 3.2%. Is it really so democratic to put the say of the entire electorate in the hands of such a small group? In any given FPTP election, typically at least two thirds of the electorate are effectively disenfranchised because they live in areas that will not actually influence the overall result. In a proportional system every vote counts. Can you not see why the former is a disenfranchisement and a disincentive for voting while the latter enfranchises everyone and encourages it?

[PeterAlan]

Zel, I'm too tired to want to get into a lengthy debate with you, and disinclined to do so anyway, but just for the record I was in no way disputing the advantages of (good) proportional voting systems over FPTP. I'm doing no more than saying that in such unsatisfactory circumstances voting itself can be a critical activity. Goodnight.

[Zelandakh]

Zel, I'm too tired to want to get into a lengthy debate with you, and disinclined to do so anyway, but just for the record I was in no way disputing the advantages of (good) proportional voting systems over FPTP. I'm doing no more than saying that in such unsatisfactory circumstances voting itself can be a critical activity. Goodnight.

FWiW, I would indeed vote if I lived in Florida or Georgia. But that is the point - the value of my vote changes depending on where I live; and I think every vote should be equal.

[pilowsky]

Zel, I'm too tired to want to get into a lengthy debate with you, and disinclined to do so anyway, but just for the record I was in no way disputing the advantages of (good) proportional voting systems over FPTP. I'm doing no more than saying that in such unsatisfactory circumstances voting itself can be a critical activity. Goodnight.

 

I think his Village must be in lockdown and he can't get back into it so we have to put up with him ranting here a while longer.

[Zelandakh]

The mood on Fox is getting darker and darker. Newt was just on calling for DJT to "lead the millions", for the AG to lock up the people counting votes, to have all votes thrown out in counties specified by DJT/Barr and for states to ignore the counts and appoint their own electors. Chilling stuff. :blink: :ph34r:

[thepossum]

I know its been discussed higher in the thread but maybe the history books (EDIT sorry dictionaries before I am corrected) will define/partially defne being Trumped as getting people passionately interested and involved in something after many years

 

And I can still get $9

[Zelandakh]

I know its been discussed higher in the thread but maybe the history books will define/partially defne being Trumped as getting people passionately interested and involved in something after many years

It might also cite him as the spark that lit the Second US Civil War. We're not there yet but flipping between Fox and CNN is really scary even from 6000 miles away.

[pilowsky]

They haven't stopped fighting the first civil war yet.

That's what this current stupidity is all about.

The so-called red states are the antebellum slave-owning Southern states still hoping for a return to

.

Even Southern California sent Confederate soldiers to war.

 

This election seems to have proven what an unsophisticated poorly developed infantile political system the Americans have.

The persistent and entrenched concept that being sociable and fair, being altruistic and empathetic is exactly equivalent to becoming a Stalinist state is so entrenched in the minds of even so-called liberal-minded Americans that there is no hope for near-term improvement.

 

Like the Oil barons in the middle east and the chinless wonders that rule Britain, they have been spoiled rotten by vast wealth. Not having to be concerned about starvation because a cornucopia around them led to sloth.

Now, these chickens are coming home to roost.

 

In the UK, ordinary people aren't permitted to own property, they buy long leases and gaze in wide wonder at gormless cucumber sandwich eaters that talk to plants.

 

Governments can be rated on a scale ranging from none (0) through medieval to warlord to authoritarian and so on all the way up to sophisticated egalitarian and well-organised fair societies where all citizens care for each other (100).

The same sort of scale applies to Bridge players as a helpful comparator.

 

In terms of wealth, America is a Zia. In terms of international standing, it's a mere novice, politically, as of today, it's not even a pilowsky.

[helene_t]

Now with Biden ahead in Georgia the election is over.

 

Trump promised to leave the country. Where do you think he is going?

 

A Facebook poll just offered Russia, Saudi Arabia and North Korea, but my guess would be Brasil.

 

Something else: for those who ridicule USA for taking four three days to count the votes, New Zealand just finished counting after three weeks. Two seats were reallocated relative to the original result, with the already disastrous National Party result being worsened by two more seats lost.

 

As for the referendum result, unfortunately we won't get cannabis, but at least we can now get euthanasia.

[pilowsky]

Now with Biden ahead in Georgia the election is over.

 

Trump promised to leave the country. Where do you think he is going?

 

A Facebook poll just offered Russia, Saudi Arabia and North Korea, but my guess would be Brasil.

 

Something else: for those who ridicule USA for taking four three days to count the votes, New Zealand just finished counting after three weeks. Two seats were reallocated relative to the original result, with the already disastrous National Party result being worsened by two more seats lost.

 

As for the referendum result, unfortunately we won't get cannabis, but at least we can now get euthanasia.

 

I'm voting for Elba - let's start a fund-raiser!

[thepossum]

It might also cite him as the spark that lit the Second US Civil War. We're not there yet but flipping between Fox and CNN is really scary even from 6000 miles away.

 

Who knows what will be written, but from my very limited knowledge of history its either written by those in power or those who weren't involved at all

[Cyberyeti]

I'm voting for Elba - let's start a fund-raiser!

 

St Helena

[Zelandakh]

Now with Biden ahead in Georgia the election is over.

It really isn't. First of all, if he were to win every other state it would be 269-269, which would mean a House vote that he would win. Secondly, the vote is not yet over in Georgia. While I expect Biden to stay ahead, it could theoretically be that the provisional and armed forces votes come in so heavily Republican that he wins the state legitimately. Thirdly, there will be legal challenges and with the current state of the courts it is not at all impossible for him to win enough cases to take the state; and finally, just because he wins the count does not mean the state will send electors for Biden. It has been openly touted in conservative media, even Fox earlier today as I mentioned, for states to send electors for Trump regardless of the actual vote. Just be patient. Pennsylvania is going to end up 50000 or so for Biden. At some point there is going to be some sort of concession from the GOP, even if it comes from Mitch rather than DJT. That probably will not happen until December but it is I think inevitable. Only then can we finally close the chapter and hope that America can turn the page (or even "turn the corner" :lol: )

[thepossum]

How are the houses looking. I for one will be very anxious if its a clean sweep of all three, especially from some of the tendencies in that side of politics. And the links with all the other powerful interests dominating the world at the moment literally frightens the hell out of me

[pilowsky]

By a strange coincidence, the French gave the Americans the statue of liberty as a gift: Its framework is - wait for it - iron. Bastille day is on the 14th of July. Exactly one month after Trump's birthday on 14th of June.

 

Obviously, the solution is to take some of the iron from Lady Liberty, ....

[Zelandakh]

Who knows what will be written, but from my very limited knowledge of history its either written by those in power or those who weren't involved at all

Well exactly. If there really were to be a civil war, he would either be the hero leading the resistance or the demagogue that tried to seize power. Either way the other side will be usurpers trying to undermine democracy. This is genuinely what each side thinks the other is doing right now. No joke.

[johnu]

It has been openly touted in conservative media, even Fox earlier today as I mentioned, for states to send electors for Trump regardless of the actual vote. Just be patient. Pennsylvania is going to end up 50000 or so for Biden. At some point there is going to be some sort of concession from the GOP, even if it comes from Mitch rather than DJT. That probably will not happen until December but it is I think inevitable. Only then can we finally close the chapter and hope that America can turn the page (or even "turn the corner" :lol: )

If the electoral vote is very close (e.g. 270-268), it is possible that individual electors could vote for the other candidate which could swing the election to the other side. 10 voters tried to vote for other than the official winner of their state, and 7 were allowed to vote for other people. Because the electoral vote wasn't close, it didn't make any difference and those votes may have been protest votes knowing that those votes made no difference.

 

If those faithless voters actually managed to change the winner of the electoral college vote, there might be a civil war, or an actual split of the country into 2 separate entities.

[Zelandakh]

If those faithless voters actually managed to change the winner of the electoral college vote, there might be a civil war, or an actual split of the country into 2 separate entities.

As I wrote before, we're not there yet but there is some really scary stuff coming out of the mainstream networks and (Republican) politicians. And you can be sure that the chatter from the extreme sites and groups is quite a way beyond that.

[awm]

There was a discussion earlier in this thread about how bad the polling has been for this election. Here's my theory about that:

 

We know that people who are very concerned about Covid-19 are more likely to vote for Biden. This is probably true even when we hold other factors (like race, gender, education level, etc) constant. The problem is that I suspect people who are very concerned about Covid-19 are also more likely to speak to pollsters. Some reasons:

 

1. Some of these people have lost jobs or had hours cut and others are working from home. All of these mean they are more likely to be available to speak on the phone.

2. Older people in this category may be almost completely isolating themselves at home, and will be happy for some contact with the outside world.

3. In comparison, people who are not very concerned about Covid-19 are more likely to be "out and about" (working, visiting relatives, running errands, etc) and less likely to want to talk on the phone with a pollster.

 

There's no obvious way to re-weight the polls for this (no one knows what percentage of the population is very concerned about Covid -- except that it's probably not as high as it should be given people's behavior). This also explains the very large apparent movement (from polls) among older voters from Trump to Biden (seems hard to believe it is really that large given the strength of polarization in the USA).

 

There may well be an additional / separate issue with Latino sub-groups in Florida of course.

[kenberg]

Unfortunately it is a firm axiom of game theory that people act rationally. Without this most of the maths behind it would collapse.

 

A highly unrealistic assumption. I am not joking.

 

 

A lot has happened while I was sleeping. I need some coffee and such. But Georgia? Oh my. The world is looking brighter this morning even if the margin in GA is slim and not final.

 

 

Later.

[Zelandakh]

A highly unrealistic assumption. I am not joking.

I agree completely. But when I studied it at university it was a requirement and its logical implementation led to some extraordinary results.

 

A lot has happened while I was sleeping. I need some coffee and such. But Georgia? Oh my. The world is looking brighter this morning even if the margin in GA is slim and not final.

The shock of Georgia seems to have been so much for Fox that they are unable to bring themselves to include the latest 179 votes in Biden's column. Perhaps the plan now is for the channel to freeze the counts there and Pennsylvania and hope none of their viewers notice.

[kenberg]

Irrationality:

There are times that I later think "I can't believe I was that stupid, what on Earth was I thinking?' Other times things go wrong simply because I didn't think that the consequences of a choice were worth thinking about. And sometimes there has been deception. In short, I often make a mistake and the reasons vary. Additionally, there are matters such as voting where really I don't care if someone can make an airtight ligical argument that it is irrational to take the time to vote, I am doing it anyway.

 

Game theory has its uses, no doubt abut it. But caution is warranted in following where it leads.

 

The same is true of statistics in general and polling in particular, as we are once again seeing. It's not that the math is wrong, not exactly, it's just that we always have to make some assumptions, eg people act rationally or people tell the truth or;;;, and these assumptions can be way off.

 

When I took Euclidean Geometry back in 1953 I thought basing everything on a small number of Axioms was absolutely brilliant. And that's true, it was a brilliant idea. But there was, for example, this parallel postulate to think about.