Has U.S. Democracy Been Trumped?

[y66]

In the models I’ve seen Trump winning is less likely than an average NBA player missing a free throw but more likely than an average NBA player missing two free throws in a row.

*Every* election model shows Trump has almost no chance

 

https://cnn.it/3ifknoZ

[y66]

Court Packing? It’s Already Happening at the State Level

 

https://www.governing.com/now/Court-Packing-Its-Already-Happening-at-the-State-Level.html

[Zelandakh]

21% is higher than the chance of rolling a 6 on a standard die. Is that really an event to which you would assign "almost zero chance"? The Earl of Yarborough made a lot of money off of events with a considerably lower chance of occurring...

[y66]

LeBron James’s effort to attract more poll workers nets 10,000 volunteers. by Astead W. Herndon at NYT

 

More Than a Vote, the collective of athletes headlined by the basketball superstar LeBron James, will announce Wednesday that its initiative to increase the number of poll workers in Black electoral districts had amassed 10,000 volunteers since it began.

 

The effort, which is called “We Got Next” and is a collaboration with the NAACP Legal Defense Fund, will be highlighted during the first game of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers, the team featuring Mr. James. During the game, first-time poll workers will be among the virtual fans, seated alongside basketball legends including Dwyane Wade, Shaquille O’Neal and Julius Erving.

 

In a release provided to The New York Times, More Than a Vote and the Legal Defense Fund said the second phase of their push would be more targeted, aimed at 11 cities “where significant poll worker shortages remain,” the release said.

[akwoo]

21% is higher than the chance of rolling a 6 on a standard die. Is that really an event to which you would assign "almost zero chance"? The Earl of Yarborough made a lot of money off of events with a considerably lower chance of occurring...

 

What I thought when I read the article was "Let's play Russian roulette! You have less than almost no chance of dying!"

[Zelandakh]

What I thought when I read the article was "Let's play Russian roulette! You have less than almost no chance of dying!"

Haha! That is probably a much better example to drive the point home. :)

[y66]

There is a theme that has run through President Trump’s entire re-election campaign: He is afraid that he cannot beat Joe Biden.

 

It explains his extraordinary efforts last year to prevent Biden from becoming the nominee. And it explains his more recent efforts to discredit the election. Rather than running against Biden, Trump now seems to be running against democracy itself.

 

I think it’s useful to think of the 2020 Trump campaign in three distinct stages. The first was during the run-up to the Democratic primaries, when Trump used the powers of the presidency to pressure at least one foreign country, Ukraine, to smear Biden (an effort that led to impeachment). Trump took no similar steps to damage Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris.

 

Why? Trump often acts on instinct, and he may have done so in this case. But he is also a voracious consumer of polls, and polls consistently showed him faring worse in a hypothetical matchup against Biden than against any other Democrat.

 

The second stage began after Biden clinched the nomination, and Trump doubled down on efforts to damage him. He portrayed Biden as a corrupt old politician, not so different from Hillary Clinton, or a closet socialist.

 

It hasn’t worked. Biden’s lead over Trump has remained stable.

 

That has led to the third stage: Try to prevent a normal election.

 

Trump, with help from other leading Republicans, has increased his efforts to make it difficult to vote. His campaign has filed lawsuits in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and elsewhere to restrict voting by mail. (The Times Magazine has a new investigation on this subject, including Mike Pence’s role.)

 

In recent weeks, Trump also began what seems like an obvious attempt at voter intimidation, encouraging his supporters to show up at polling places, purportedly to prevent voter fraud, which almost never occurs. Donald Trump Jr. has released a video calling for an “army for Trump’s election security operation.”

 

Tuesday’s debate was the apex of the strategy, at least for now. Trump refused to allow a normal debate, constantly interrupting Biden. For voters, the result was a chaotic jumble. For Trump, it was one more attempt to undermine the normal functioning of democracy.

 

There is still more than a month until Election Day — an eternity in politics. At this point, though, the picture from the last year and a half is remarkably consistent.

 

Trump seems to believe he would lose a normal election to Biden. But in an abnormal election, with low turnout and protracted fights over ballot eligibility, who knows what will happen? And if Trump does lose, he is laying the groundwork to make the false claim that the election was rigged.

 

As my colleague Maggie Haberman put it yesterday, “People close to him are blunt that the president knows he’s losing and is scared of it.”

[y66]

Condemning white supremacists should be a layup

The president’s former national security adviser on extremism, the election, and the survival of democracy by Peter Nicholas at The Atlantic

[Winstonm]

This importance of this story is not being emphasized at all by mainstream media. Let me recap: The notes taken by an FBI agent who met and memorialized that meeting with Barrack Obama and Joe Biden were altered by someone either in the DOJ or by one of Flynn's attorneys to add a date that then made those notes fit a narrative the Flynn defense and Bill Barr were orchestrating - that the only reason Flynn was investigated was because Biden suggested they could us the Logan Act to start the investigation - but is obviously a lie as the meeting was held a day later than the alteration shows. And then, 5 days after Flynn's lawyer filed this altered document with the court, Trump made the same unfounded claim that Biden has been "caught" suggesting the Logan Act be used to investigate Flynn.

 

Here is how Marcy Wheeler describes this:

 

 

 

Over the past 72 hours, the following events have proven not just that Peter Strzok's notes were altered, but that that was done for political purpose.

 

It started on Monday, when Strzok lawyer Aitan Goelman sent Judge Emmet Sullivan a letter confirming that the handwritten dates on two sets of his notes were, "not written by Mr. Strzok."

 

That the notes memorializing what Jim Comey briefed others about a January 5, 2017 meeting were altered is not in doubt. Sidney Powell and DOJ have already provided the original notes (which I've annotated to show that the notes did not originally have a date) and the altered ones (which I've annotated to note where a date has been added).

 

The second set of notes were provided to Flynn's lawyers on September 23 and submitted to the docket on September 24. It's not clear whether they were altered before or after they got sent from DOJ. I hope Judge Sullivan gets to the bottom of that question.

 

Then, in Tuesday's hearing, Sidney Powell admitted not just that she has spoken with the President about this case (insanely asking him not to pardon her client), but also that she speaks — apparently regularly — with President Trump's campaign lawyer, Jenna Ellis, betraying that Flynn's efforts to blow up his prosecution are a matter of interest to Trump's campaign.

 

Then, hours later, on Tuesday night, the President made this prepared attack on Joe Biden during the first debate.

 

 

President Donald J. Trump:We've caught them all. We've got it all on tape. We've caught them all. And by the way, you gave the idea for the Logan Act against General Flynn. You better take a look at that, because we caught you in a sense, and President Obama was sitting in the office.

 

This looks very much like the President and the U.S. Department of Justice and a private attorney knowingly altering a critical document in a court case in order to give the President ammunition to propose a lie about Biden. Christ - this administration is the swamp. They should not be drained - they need to go to jail prison.

[y66]

This looks very much like the President and the U.S. Department of Justice and a private attorney knowingly altering a critical document in a court case in order to give the President ammunition to propose a lie about Biden. Christ - this administration is the swamp. They should not be drained - they need to go to jail.

Nixon was a grasshopper compared to Trump when it comes to the art of the hit job. Half of Trump's problem is that he provides more fodder for his opponents every time he opens his mouth. The other 90 percent is that he is incompetent at governing. Unfortunately, that is also our problem.

[Winstonm]

Jennifer Rubin:

 

“Trump is becoming more frantic and unhinged by the day,” Rubin argues. “He is staring not only at a possible landslide defeat, but potentially, also economic ruin and criminal prosecution. And his kids’ inheritance may be going down the drain as well. Certainly, Trump’s presidency has been a four-year nightmare for the country, but for Trump, it may turn out to be devastating and permanent.”

 

Karma's a bitch.

[Winstonm]

Critical information from Senator Chris Murphy

[hrothgar]

Today, as the Coronavirus rips its way through the White House, my thoughts and prayers are with the virus.

[shyams]

Critical information from Senator Chris Murphy

 

This is tragic. It shouldn't happen in a robust democracy.

 

I don't care how petty and venal the politicians become during election season; it simply should not spill into the apolitical institutions. These "short-term gains" (if any) come with a very profound long-term cost.

[johnu]

This is tragic. It shouldn't happen in a robust democracy.

 

I don't care how petty and venal the politicians become during election season; it simply should not spill into the apolitical institutions. These "short-term gains" (if any) come with a very profound long-term cost.

This sort of thing has been going on for almost 4 years.

[johnu]

Nobody knows if Hope Hicks was the source of the Grifter in Chief's positive COVID-19 test, but if she was, is she eligible for the von Stauffenberg award?

[shyams]

I have a theory that says that the Covid infection has improved Trump's chances of being reelected. Here is my tenuous rationale:

 

1. Americans love to rally for their President in times of stress.

... A. This infection having spread right to the highest seat of power might make Americans stressed and could create a larger support for Trump.

... B. A few days before the 2004 election, there was a tape of OBL released by Al Jazeera. Although the tape itself was highly critical of Bush, its viewing increased Bush's lead in the Presidential election. Perhaps the viral infection is an equivalence and will invoke a "defiant" response.

 

2. What actually happens to Trump from the infection will play to his benefit too:

... A. If Trump comes out of this unscathed (the most likely outcome), he will use his own example to discredit all scientists and weaken the fear of Covid. His demands to reopen the economy will get more shrill and he will use this call to bludgeon Biden and paint Biden's positioning as weak/defeatist.

... B. If he falls more ill before recovering (e.g. like BoJo did), he will garner a much bigger sympathy vote.

 

3. Finally, it is now almost certain that at least one Presidential debate (if not all debates) will be cancelled. Again something which Trump's side won't mind.

[kenberg]

It's quite the news to wake up to.

 

I don't wish covid on anyone, I'll leave it at that as far as health wishes go.

 

There are practical issues and I hope that's where the focus goes.

 

I recommend to JB that he wish the Trumps well, and that hi wish everyone well in dealing with the virus. But then the world continues to turn and the election is coming, Biden will continue to make his case. It is probably pre-mature to talk of the next debate, although I think a person with covid should cut back on activity. But then I thnk people should wear masks and keep a good distance, and, s far as Trump is concerned, this advice fell on deaf ears.

 

Shyams could be right about a sympathy vote but I don't really think so. Voteers can send him a get well card if they want to, there is no reason to give him a vote to cheer him up.

 

It has really been quite a year. And it's not over yet.

[kenberg]

A bit of morbid humor struck me while drinking my coffee. Recently DT was speaking favorably about masks and mentioned he had one right in his pocket. .It reminded me of a tv show where a woman was saying the she had joined a gym and it hadn't done a bit of good. "Apparently you also have to go".

[Zelandakh]

I recommend to JB that he wish the Trumps well,

In case you have missed it, JB has already done this. Regarding JB there is perhaps a more immediate issue though. From my understanding, Hope Hicks was already symptomatic on Wednesday, which would mean that she was almost certainly infected (and highly infectious) at the time of the debate on Tuesday. That might mean that JB and his campaign also need to self-isolate. There is much yet to run in this story. From the Republican perspective, at least the news cycle has changed away from the POTUS's support of neo-fascism. Watching CNN and BBC News today, I have not heard that mentioned even once.

[kenberg]

In case you have missed it, JB has already done this. Regarding JB there is perhaps a more immediate issue though. From my understanding, Hope Hicks was already symptomatic on Wednesday, which would mean that she was almost certainly infected (and highly infectious) at the time of the debate on Tuesday. That might mean that JB and his campaign also need to self-isolate. There is much yet to run in this story. From the Republican perspective, at least the news cycle has changed away from the POTUS's support of neo-fascism. Watching CNN and BBC News today, I have not heard that mentioned even once.

 

I had missed that part. I trust he, and others, will be tested.

 

Comparing their issues with mine os ot super-valid but a couple of examples come to mind. I was in a doctor's office and later got an email that one of the staff had tested positive. So I got tested. It was negative.

A grandson, living in LA, was going to come east for a while. He tested positive. He cancelled the plans to come out, both as social responsibility and as caution for himself. Sure, presidential candidates lead hectic lives, not at all like mine or even like my grandson's. Still, covid is a serious business so a mixture of caution and social responsibility is called for.

 

One can easily imagine some serious legal and political complications going forward. I'll lay off speculating, I don't know enough. But this is a serious mess. The best result for the country really is that Trump males a full recovery and does so quickly. That doesn't mean I want him re-elected, of course not. But I do want him sent from the office in the usual way.

 

This will require some good common sense from us all.

[Winstonm]

Today, as the Coronavirus rips its way through the White House, my thoughts and prayers are with the virus.

 

I tried to send the Trumps my thoughts and prayers but they were deflected by my mask.

[Winstonm]

I have a theory that says that the Covid infection has improved Trump's chances of being reelected. Here is my tenuous rationale:

 

1. Americans love to rally for their President in times of stress.

... A. This infection having spread right to the highest seat of power might make Americans stressed and could create a larger support for Trump.

... B. A few days before the 2004 election, there was a tape of OBL released by Al Jazeera. Although the tape itself was highly critical of Bush, its viewing increased Bush's lead in the Presidential election. Perhaps the viral infection is an equivalence and will invoke a "defiant" response.

 

2. What actually happens to Trump from the infection will play to his benefit too:

... A. If Trump comes out of this unscathed (the most likely outcome), he will use his own example to discredit all scientists and weaken the fear of Covid. His demands to reopen the economy will get more shrill and he will use this call to bludgeon Biden and paint Biden's positioning as weak/defeatist.

... B. If he falls more ill before recovering (e.g. like BoJo did), he will garner a much bigger sympathy vote.

 

3. Finally, it is now almost certain that at least one Presidential debate (if not all debates) will be cancelled. Again something which Trump's side won't mind.

 

It struck me this morning that this whole episode could be an orchestrated ruse to change the news cycle and make Trump look like a superhero when he emerges in 2 weeks having conquered the virus. The fact that this is not an unrealistic thought shows how far down the rabbit hole we have gone.

[kenberg]

It struck me this morning that this whole episode could be an orchestrated ruse to change the news cycle and make Trump look like a superhero when he emerges in 2 weeks having conquered the virus. The fact that this is not an unrealistic thought shows how far down the rabbit hole we have gone.

 

I have to be honest, that thought occurred to me also. I don't believe it is so, but it occurred to me. We have not yet hit the bottom of our collapse, it seems there is no bottom.

 

But recovery for Trump, victory for Biden, and then we move on. That's my hope, I recommend it to all.

 

 

 

[sharon j]

My reaction was much like Winston's. I'm suspicious of anything Trump says.