Has U.S. Democracy Been Trumped?

[johnu]

Grifter in Chief raises estimate for COVID-19 death toll

 

Trump raises his virus death toll projection to up to 70,000 in U.S.

 

Trump had previously seized on the estimate of 50,000 to 60,000 because of his administration's preference for a model developed by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The latest forecast from that model showed a much lower death toll than earlier projected, as well as a much lower number of fatalities than many other epidemiological models.

Just covering his ass-hat so that he can point to his accurate projection later this summer and fall during the presidential campaign. When the death toll approaches 70,000, the Grifter in Chief will revise his estimate to 70-80,000 deaths, and will continue raising his estimates throughout the summer and fall as each previous estimate becomes obsolete. No matter what, the Clown in Chief will claim that he did a simply "marvelous" job in keeping the death toll low.

[Winstonm]

I seem to recall some old admonition about "when they find out they can loot the treasury"...

 

$500 billion bailout plan for large companies has no requirements to preserve jobs or limit executive pay

The Federal Reserve’s coronavirus aid program lacks restrictions Congress placed on companies seeking financial help under other programs.

 

Oh, yeah, this one:

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury...”

― Alexander Fraser Tytler

[y66]

Boing! Trump just dropped below 43% approval via 538's estimate - now at 42.6 - and down to a full -10.0 net approval. His pandemic bounce is gone.

[Trinidad]

I know, I get it... When Mike Pence visited the Mayo clinic in Minnesota and said that he didn't need a mouth mask because he was tested often... he was using sarcasm.

 

Rik

[Winstonm]

As advertised, he got us to 4%:

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank at a 4.8% annual rate last quarter

[johnu]

Another day, another couple of dozen lies by the Grifter in Chief

 

Trump backtracks after saying U.S. would "very soon" hit 5 million tests a day

 

On Tuesday when a reporter asked in an East Room event whether the U.S. would surpass 5 million coronavirus tests per day, the president said that's coming "very soon." But on Wednesday, the president claimed he never said that, blaming a "media trap."

By soon, the Liar in Chief really meant by 2030 or 2040. And by 5 million a day, he really meant 5K a day. Oh you say, we are already doing more than 5K? The Grifter in Chief accepts your adulation for doing such a great job in getting testing up to lightning speed.

 

Of course on the same day

 

On Tuesday, Admiral Brett Giroir, the assistant secretary of health who is the coronavirus testing director, said in an interview with TIME Tuesday, "There is absolutely no way on Earth, on this planet or any other planet, that we can do 20 million tests a day, or even five million tests a day." By May, Giroir said the U.S. would be testing 8 million per month.

Many knowledgeable epidemiologists and health experts have estimated that the US needs to do a minimum of 5 million (some estimates up to 20 million) tests a day in order to reopen the country.

 

Trump’s COVID-19 Testing Claim Is Way Off

 

The United States has not done more COVID-19 testing than “every country combined,” as President Donald Trump claimed in remarks during a recent press briefing.

 

In fact, three countries alone — Russia, Germany and Italy — have done more combined testing than the U.S., according to a reference website tracking global testing for the disease.

 

The president most recently made the false statement at an April 28 White House event highlighting the federal Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses affected by the coronavirus outbreak. But he has been making a version of the claim for more than a week. (We’re not the first to point out he’s wrong.)

In fairness to the Grifter in Chief, he really meant that we had done more testing than “every 3rd world country combined” which is a standard we all can be proud of.

[shyams]

When I checked this morning, it had widened to 12.3%. Now, this is a British/European betting website but the market is deep (£22.7 million has been traded on this specific outcome -- of which approx. £1.5m of trades occurred in the last 10 days).

Currently at 13.0%. Approx £300k traded in the last four days.

 

Here is something that made me wonder/chuckle. So Biden is naturally the most likely Dem nominee for President (87.0% implied probability). Who is the next most likely? As per the betting odds, it is not Andrew Cuomo (2.6%) or Bernie Sanders (0.9%).

 

Instead, the second highest implied probability goes to Hillary Clinton (4.3%). And her % probability increased (slightly) after she did her video conference to endorse Biden. :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

Maybe the betting markets are flawed, but these are money-making opportunities. And (full disclosure) I am currently trading this market, hoping to make some money!

 

Edit: Some eight hours later, Hillary's odds have improved to a new probability of 5.5%

Edited April 30, 2020 by shyams

[y66]

Jonathan Bernstein at Bloomberg:

 

With the economic fallout from the coronavirus likely to worsen in the months ahead, and Republicans in Congress apparently disinclined to take further bold action, now’s the time when decisive presidential action could really make a difference. Unfortunately, it’s increasingly clear that President Donald Trump is in over his head.

 

Watching Trump take questions Wednesday afternoon, it was apparent that his recovery plan … well, “plan” is too strong a word. What he said will happen is that government-imposed restrictions will soon come off, the economy will start up again, the coronavirus will disappear and “pent-up demand” will kick in to make the economy stronger than ever.

 

There are some obvious problems with this scenario, not least that the virus is unlikely to simply go away on its own any time soon. Trump did refer to the possibility of “embers” flaring up, but dismissed it as a complication that we know how to deal with. This seems fairly optimistic given that the original outbreak is still killing thousands of Americans every week despite extreme and economically disastrous interventions.

 

Even if we grant his wishful thinking, Trump’s oft-repeated claims about pent-up demand seem divorced from reality. It’s true that some people have continued to work as usual while sheltering at home during the lockdown, and may be eager to spend like sailors once it’s possible. But millions of others have lost their jobs, watched their businesses fail, or had their hours and wages cut back. Even if they got some relief from previous aid packages, they’ve still taken a significant blow. They may want to rush out to dinner and a movie, but they don’t have the cash to do so.

 

Nor is it plausible that all of those millions will be back to work on day one, which means many will be falling deeper into the hole until there’s another round of significant government action — something Trump is downplaying and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell seems to oppose outright.

 

If consumer demand is in fact restricted rather than “pent-up,” then instead of some grand reopening we’re likely to see cascading bouts of trouble throughout the system. And the budget disasters that state and local governments are already experiencing will likely worsen. Huge government layoffs have already begun, with “millions” of more jobs at risk.

 

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday urged Congress to do more. But this is a case where Republicans in Congress are unlikely to feel a sense of urgency — after all, most of them have safe seats and may get pressure from ideological party actors to avoid additional massive spending packages for things that Republicans don’t typically like. That’s exactly the scenario where forceful party leadership from the White House can make a difference. But if Trump is at least publicly living in a fantasy world in which viruses just disappear and the economy comes roaring back for no particular reason, then congressional Republicans may well decide to sit on their hands. And everyone will suffer if they do.

[shyams]

Dark clouds on the horizon for Biden?

 

Why Won’t TV News Book Tara Reade?

NY Times article by Ben Smith (link here)

 

The fast-moving news site Business Insider reported other details that gave further weight to Ms. Reade’s story. The reporter, Rich McHugh, had taken the story to Vanity Fair first, which declined to publish it, a spokesperson for Vanity Fair confirmed. The broadcast television networks, CNN and MSNBC have covered the story on their websites, while Fox News has covered developments breathlessly on air and online.

 

There’s still no clear explanation, however, for why Ms. Reade hasn’t been on mainstream TV. Representatives for CNN and MSNBC declined to explain why they haven’t booked a woman who is, whether you believe her or not, one of the few newsmakers right now who could cut through the pandemic.

 

Their posture is all the more strange because, at this point, it’s essentially symbolic. In 1999, you could argue that NBC’s decision to hold back Lisa Myers’s interview with Ms. Broaddrick had real political consequences: Taped in January, as the Senate took up impeachment charges against Mr. Clinton, it did not air until after the Senate voted not to convict the president in February. (Curiously, the only version online now is on the website of a conservative group.) Back then, the only way Americans were going to hear her voice was on television.

 

But these days, if you want to judge Ms. Reade’s story you can listen to her original podcast interview with Ms. Halper, or watch her on the populist Hill.TV online show “Rising,” or the leftist news program “Democracy Now!”

 

So the decisions by networks of how and whether to cover her have fewer consequences for how she’s viewed, or even how Mr. Biden is viewed, than they do for how Americans view the media.

[johnu]

We have nothing to fear but the Grifter in Chief and FEMA

 

Maryland’s GOP Governor Hid COVID-19 Test Kits So Feds Can’t Take Them

 

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan said he’s been forced to resort to drastic measures to protect nearly 500,000 COVID-19 test kits from the federal government.

 

The state bought the test kits from South Korea earlier this month, and the state’s National Guard is guarding them in a secret location to prevent them from being commandeered by the Trump administration.

The federal government has left states largely on their own when it comes to testing their citizens and securing critical equipment during the pandemic. But when it comes to those supplies, Hogan’s concern appears to have been warranted: There have been numerous reports of the Federal Emergency Management Agency hijacking desperately needed protective gear for first responders and health care workers.

 

“We wanted to make sure that that plane took off from Korea safely, landed here in America safely,” Hogan said. “And that we guarded that cargo from whoever might interfere with us getting that to the folks who need it.”

It's bad enough that the Incompetent in Chief refuses to take the lead in supplying the nation with protective gear and test kits, but the Criminal in Chief has resorted to stealing form hospitals, cities, and states after they were forced by federal incompetence to go out and get materials on their own.

[Winstonm]

I can take pleasure in seeing the opinions of others. Often they are interesting, some are memorable. Sometimes I want to examine their opinions closely. So the analogy has gaps.

 

But I have to ask. Are you still comfortable with Trump as president? No need to explain why you are or are not, but I have been expecting for quite a while that people will change on this, and I am now thinking it is happening, so I am curious.

 

I notice you got no response. How quaint.

[johnu]

The Grifter in Chief is 1000% responsible for this travesty

 

How Profit And Incompetence Delayed N95 Masks While People Died At The VA

 

It’s also unclear why the VA gave Stewart’s fledgling business — which had no experience selling medical equipment, no supply chain expertise and very little credit — an important contract. Or why the VA agreed to pay nearly $5.75 per mask, a 350% markup from the manufacturer’s list price. In the end, after ProPublica asked questions about the deal this week, the VA quickly terminated it and referred the case to its inspector general for investigation.

Stewart wasn’t alone. The coronavirus pandemic had unleashed a bonanza for untested contractors riding a wave of unprecedented demand and scarcity of everything from hand sanitizer to ICU beds. So far, the administration of President Donald Trump has handed out at least $5.1 billion in no-bid contracts to address the pandemic, federal purchasing data shows. The VA, far more than any other agency, appeared to be awarding large contracts to little-known vendors in search of the personal protective equipment that’s pitted local, state and federal agencies against one another.

 

I wanted to know how a company the 34-year-old Stewart had formed two years earlier had gotten one of the largest no-bid contracts. And, more importantly, could it fulfill it?

 

There was reason to wonder. A quick Google search showed large portions of the text on FGE’s company website had been lifted verbatim from a 1982 Harvard Business Review article. The company primarily advertised IT consulting and advertised a “block chain” A.I. solution to government procurement, whatever that means. But I found nothing suggesting the company could buy and ship life-saving medical equipment — and fast.

The complete and absolute failure of the Incompetent in Chief to take control of the supply chain for personal protective equipment directly lead to this unbelievable boondoggle.

[kenberg]

I have argued that in the upcoming election we want to go with the simpler the better. An examplle.

 

As we know, Mike Pence met with doctors, nurses and staff at the Mayo clinic. He was the only one without a mask.

 

His wife has said that he was not aware that a mask was expected.

 

A reporter has said that they were all told that it was.

 

Pence is mad at the reporter.

 

Ok. We have the vice-president of the United States, he is also the chair of corona virus task force, unaware that a mask was expected in a hospital. He has his wife lie for him. He is mad at the reporter.

 

This is who we have in office now.

 

It is stunning. Could the man at least tell his own lies? Are there really people who are still ok with this team?

 

Is Donald Trump also unaware that universities across the country are having virtual addresses at virtual commencement ceremonies?

 

And really, are the gun toting protesters at state capitals really fine people?

 

In life there are subtle issues and there are issues that are not at all subtle. The head of the corona virus task force has his wife explain that golly gee, he just didn't know that a mask was expected. That's not one of the subtle issues.

 

It's beyond words.

[Winstonm]

It is past time for a simple repudiation of this administration and the party that backs them - it is time for a reckoning.

[Winstonm]

I'm sitting here on a Sunday and reading about the impossible positions in which Doctors Birx and Fauci find themselves, and as explained by the author they do not have the usual choices of quit or complain as Trump will turn on them if they complain and replace them with someone totally unqualified but who will say what Trump wants them to say.

 

And then it occurred to me - this is Donald Trump's sole skill - and he is masterful at its use: he manipulates perceptions. That is all he does; I think it is all he is capable of doing. It has worked for almost 72 years of his life, but now, the pandemic has stripped him of his ability to distract and deceive and create illusions.

 

There was a young man on one of the news shows earlier, and he admitted he had been duped by Trump and had been a Trump supporter, and what helped change his mind, he said, was a change in his own personal worldview. I think this is right. It is simple during good times to think simplistic thoughts - like nationalism as a solution to world problem - but when serious troubles set in and we see that we indeed are all dependent upon each other and the rugged individual of Atlas Shrugged is only a fictional invention - at that point it becomes simple to denounce Donald Trump. And his party.

[Chas_P]

I'm sitting here on a Sunday and reading about the impossible positions in which Doctors Birx and Fauci find themselves.

 

What a lousy way to spend a Sunday afternoon! You should be looking for something to make you happy. You need to

s.

[kenberg]

What a lousy way to spend a Sunday afternoon! You should be looking for something to make you happy. You need to

s.

 

Most of us are fine with roses. I spent part of Sunday working with the raspberry bushes but, roses or raspberries, or preferably both, we do have a pandemic, a crashing economy and a president who is not just the worst of my lifetime but worse than even i had expected him to be. But the raspberries do need some weeding and I think I should transplant a few, the patch is getting crowded.

[Chas_P]

I spent part of Sunday working with the raspberry bushes

 

Good for you! And I'll bet that at the end of the day you were a lot happier than Winston was.

[kenberg]

Recent posts give me an opportunity to again stress a point.

 

From Winston

There was a young man on one of the news shows earlier, and he admitted he had been duped by Trump and had been a Trump supporter, and what helped change his mind, he said, was a change in his own personal worldview. I think this is right. It is simple during good times to think simplistic thoughts - like nationalism as a solution to world problem - but when serious troubles set in and we see that we indeed are all dependent upon each other and the rugged individual of Atlas Shrugged is only a fictional invention - at that point it becomes simple to denounce Donald Trump. And his party.

Now Chas has posted, but has not yet indicated he has given up on Trump.

So here is my point, boringly repeated. I have no belief that I can change Chas's worldview, or even any desire to. But I do hope that somewhere along the way he and others recognize the obvious: Trump's handling of the covid crisis has been an absolute disaster. Sure there are others who can have a share of the blame.But Trump is the president. He had far more resources and far more power than most others, and he totally blew it Totally. Moreover, the disaster followed directly from his general approach. If there is another crisis, he is very apt to blow that also. It is time to send him back to the reality show business.

Getting people to change their worldview is tough. I changed a lot during my adolescence, and I have changed some since then, but do not expect me to be a different person tomorrow or next week than I am today. However I do sometimes reconsider my choices. That's where the push needs to be. People can keep their worldview, they can still see that Trump does not fit into anyone's worldview. An irresponsible nut job is an irresponsible nut job. whatever our worldview might be.

[barmar]

I wonder if Trump thinks that Truman's "The buck stops here" slogan meant that the President gets to keep all the profits, but still gets to deflect blame.

[Chas_P]

Recent posts give me an opportunity to again stress a point.

 

From Winston

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Now Chas has posted, but has not yet indicated he has given up on Trump.

So here is my point, boringly repeated. I have no belief that I can change Chas's worldview, or even any desire to. But I do hope that somewhere along the way he and others recognize the obvious: Trump's handling of the covid crisis has been an absolute disaster. Sure there are others who can have a share of the blame.But Trump is the president. He had far more resources and far more power than most others, and he totally blew it Totally. Moreover, the disaster followed directly from his general approach. If there is another crisis, he is very apt to blow that also. It is time to send him back to the reality show business.

Getting people to change their worldview is tough. I changed a lot during my adolescence, and I have changed some since then, but do not expect me to be a different person tomorrow or next week than I am today. However I do sometimes reconsider my choices. That's where the push needs to be. People can keep their worldview, they can still see that Trump does not fit into anyone's worldview. An irresponsible nut job is an irresponsible nut job. whatever our worldview might be.

 

Ken, all I was saying is that I think "sitting here on a Sunday and reading about the impossible positions in which Doctors Birx and Fauci find themselves" is a lousy way to spend a Sunday afternoon. I would say the same thing had it been "sitting here on a Sunday and reading about Joe Biden sniffing women's hair and putting his hand in Tara Reade's britches". In my worldview, there's more to life than that.

[kenberg]

Ken, all I was saying is that I think "sitting here on a Sunday and reading about the impossible positions in which Doctors Birx and Fauci find themselves" is a lousy way to spend a Sunday afternoon. I would say the same thing had it been "sitting here on a Sunday and reading about Joe Biden sniffing women's hair and putting his hand in Tara Reade's britches". In my worldview, there's more to life than that.

 

Yes, I understood that. I hope the roses boom, my raspberry plants produce fruit, and more importantly than either I hope that next January we have someone else as president.

Raspberries need tending, the rose bush is in serious need of cutting back.

Still. Trump is president.

I think how to fix that is worth addressing.

Winston and I do not disagree about that being a problem but we probably do disagree on how to go at it.

Don't bother trying to change worldviews, just get their votes.

Central to this is that Trump is so awful that people can have many different worldviews and still agree that we need a new president.

 

 

But I do enjoy being out in the garden.

In fact, I am on my way out the door.

 

Anyway. Advice to dems: Don't try to change anyone's world view, be satisfied with getting them to vote Trump out. Replacing him with a cabbage would be a substantial improvement.

[johnu]

Grifters have to grift.

Trolls have to troll.

[cherdano]

If you haven't seen this yet, watch:

How to medical

 

By the way, I think it's worth parsing out why this is so scandalous. Obviously it's ridiculous and dangerous when The President Of The United States suggests injecting bleach. (Which can kill.)

But why Trump is saying something like that? He fakes being engaged with the scientists, that he is actively following what they are doing, and what that might mean for the future of the pandemic. He fakes because he isn't. And that he isn't is the real scandal. (Or would have been, for any other head of state, or any previous POTUS.)

[Winstonm]

Yes, I understood that. I hope the roses boom, my raspberry plants produce fruit, and more importantly than either I hope that next January we have someone else as president.

Raspberries need tending, the rose bush is in serious need of cutting back.

Still. Trump is president.

I think how to fix that is worth addressing.

Winston and I do not disagree about that being a problem but we probably do disagree on how to go at it.

Don't bother trying to change worldviews, just get their votes.

Central to this is that Trump is so awful that people can have many different worldviews and still agree that we need a new president.

 

 

But I do enjoy being out in the garden.

In fact, I am on my way out the door.

 

Anyway. Advice to dems: Don't try to change anyone's world view, be satisfied with getting them to vote Trump out. Replacing him with a cabbage would be a substantial improvement.

 

The point of my post about the young man's world view change is that it expresses just how difficult it is to get Trump supporters to alter that view - and that explains to me why someone so totally unqualified can still have approval ratings in the 40s.

 

A big problem as I see it is even if Trump is defeated in November and a new president is sworn in, that 40+ percent will still be with us, unable or unwilling to deal with a factual world.

 

But, I suppose if you want to spend Sundays and all the other days with your head buried in the sand - and that makes you happy - by all means breathe deeply.