Has U.S. Democracy Been Trumped?

[kenberg]

This is a good rebuttal to the Stephen Miller crowd, which includes Individual-1.

 

 

 

 

Please forgive me, I will use this to illustrate why I urge skepticism in the use of data.

The NYT column gets its data from

https://www.bls.gov/.../pdf/forbrn.pdf

I'll start by praising the BLS for being cautious. They define some terms and they talk about methods of gathering data. Good.

But now let's use their data for a different argument.

We find:

In terms of educational attainment, the proportion of the foreign-born labor force age 25 and over that had not completed high school was 21.8 percent in 2017, much higher than the figure for the native-born labor force, at 4.2 percent. The foreign born were less likely than the native born to have some college or an associate degree—16.8 percent versus 29.4 percent. The proportions for foreign-born and native-born high school graduates (25.2 percent versus 25.9 percent) and those with a bachelor's degree or higher (36.2 percent versus 40.5 percent) were more similar

Huh. A group whose educational level is below the level of the nation as a whole has a lower unemployment rate. Kids! Drop out of school now. Pink Floyd is right. We don't need no education.

Even if we agree that some jobs are better than others, it still is remarkable that a group with substantially less education has a lower unemployment rate.

 

What I get out of this is not that kids should drop out of school, but also not that the data is an argument either for or against immigration. Rather I look at this and see numbers that are so impressive that I think they require a closer look before we use them for anything at all. 21.8 percent of this group have not completed high school and the unemployment rate is 4 point something percent?

I haven't done a study of the data. But in the Technical Notes we find:

In response to the increased demand for statistical information about the foreign born, questions on nativity, citizenship, year of entry into the United States, and the parental nativity of respondents were added to the CPS beginning in January 1994.

Hey, wait. Aren't we being told that we should not put such questions in the 2020 census because it will screw up the results?

That's just a first thought on what might be going on. Much more thought would be needed to have any confidence.

 

Note that none of the above involves "mathematics". It's just a matter of having a little skepticism when data seems to show that a group with a substantially lower educational level is having better luck in the job market than those with a higher level of education. It might be true, but we should look at just what is going on before we jump to any conclusions. Motivation can play a big role in achievement, maybe that's the answer, but we need to keep an open mind.

[Winstonm]

Please forgive me, I will use this to illustrate why I urge skepticism in the use of data.

The NYT column gets its data from

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/forbrn.pdf

I'll start by praising the BLS for being cautious. They define some terms and they talk about methods of gathering data. Good.

But now let's use their data for a different argument.

We find:

 

Huh. A group whose educational level is below the level of the nation as a whole has a lower unemployment rate. Kids! Drop out of school now Pink Floyd is right. . We don't nee no education.

Even if we agree that some jobs are better than others, it still is remarkable that a group with substantially less education has a lower unemployment rate.

 

What I get out of this is not that kids should drop out of school, but also not that the data is an argument either for or against immigration. Rather I look at this and see numbers that are so impressive that I think they require a closer look before we use them for anything at all. 21.8 percent of this group have not completed high school and the unemployment rate is 4 point something percent?

I haven't done a study of the data. But in the Technical Notes we find:

 

Hey, wait. Aren't we being told that we should not put such questions in the 2020 census because it will screw up the results?

That's just a first thought on what might be going on. Much more thought would be needed to have any confidence.

 

Note that none of the above involves "mathematics". It's just a matter of having a little skepticism when data seems to show that a group with a substantially lower educational level is having better luck in the job market than those with a higher level of education. It might be true, but we should look at just what is going on before we jump to any conclusions. Motivation can play a big role in achievement, maybe that's the answer, but we need to keep an open mind.

 

I get what you say, but I found the data very easy to accept because of my personal experience with migrant farm workers.

 

I think you might be overstating the "jobs" aspect. Most illegal immigrants - rather than asylum seekers - come to the U.S. precisely for work. I would be shocked to see a high unemployment rate for poorly-educated illegal immigrants living in the U.S. Mar-a-lago has to have a crew mowing the grass. I lived for a short time in Santa Barbara and from there for a class assignment drove to the farm fields outside a small town north of Santa Barbara where every single worker was hispanic - the town was Spanish speaking and the movies playing in the lone theater were in Spanish.

 

I would be surprised to find high education levels in migrant farm workers.

 

As to the census, my understanding is the census is trying to find out population only - and that discouraging minorities to answer would skew the results. BLS is different and looking for different data and uses different methods, to my understanding.

[barmar]

Be careful. Couldn't this "low unemployment rate among immigrants" statistic also be used to support the claim that immigrants are stealing our jobs?

 

But it's well known that many of the jobs that immigrants take are the back-breaking, menial jobs we don't want to do ourselves. The reason they have such low unemployment is probably because they're not picky, they'll take any job they can get. That's why they came here in the first place, they were desperate.

[kenberg]

I agree with both Winston and Barry from the last two posts. I also believe it supports the general idea of being careful with how we use data.

First to Barry. I quote from the same BLS document:

In 2017, the share of the U.S. civilian labor force that was foreign born increased to 17.1 percent from 16.9 percent in 2016. (See table 1.) The share of the U.S. civilian labor force that was foreign born was 13.3 percent in 2000.

17 percent might seem high or it might seem low, but surely the impact is not felt evenly across all types of employment. If we looked at, for example, maid service in a motel, I think that the percentage would be far higher. Again I say that this is not an argument for or against immigration, I favor immigration, it is an argument for being careful with data.

And yes, Winston, surely much farm labor is done by immigrants. In my youth I held many jobs but I spent exactly one day, or make that exactly one half of one day, doing farm labor. Well, there was also the two weeks or so that I spent at my cousion's farm when I was 11 or maybe 12. I was very happy to go home.

 

 

The NYT article might have said "Look folks, we need farm labor, and until we can find a way to get the native born to do it we need immigrants". That's not what it said.

I expect there is some useful stuff in the BLS report if it is carefully looked at, approached with a desire to see what it shows and what it doesn't show. The NYT article took one year of data, used it to show that for that particular year the immigrant unemployment rate was almost three quarters of a percentage point lower than the overall unemployment rate, and claimed that this comparison demonstrated something huge. I don't think so. Way way too quick.

[johnu]

Senate Democrats fail to stop Trump administration from lifting sanctions on firms linked to Putin friend

 

In another show of cowardice and hysterical fear of invoking the twitter insults of Dennison, 42 Republican Senators voted to uphold Dennison's lifting of sanctions on the Russian Deripaska, who was one of the Russians behind the hacking of the 2016 US elections. I was hopeful that these Dennison puppets would act in the best interests of the US, but getting reelected is apparently more important to these "patriots".

[johnu]

I agree with both Winston and Barry from the last two posts. I also believe it supports the general idea of being careful with how we use data.

 

As the saying goes, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics'"

 

You have to be able to correctly interpret the raw numbers. If you rely only on the raw numbers, you will constantly misunderstand what's happening.

[y66]

From Judge to announce fate of Chicago cops charged with covering up Laquan McDonald's killing by Jason Meisner & colleagues at the Chicago Tribune:

 

Three Chicago police officers accused of covering up details of the 2014 fatal shooting of 17-year-old Laquan McDonald are expected to finally learn their fate Thursday when a Cook County judge issues her decision in the unprecedented case.

 

The highly anticipated ruling by Associate Judge Domenica Stephenson comes more than a month after closing arguments in the officers’ bench trial.

 

The case has been seen as a referendum on a so-called code of silence within the Chicago Police Department designed to protect fellow officers from accountability for wrongdoing.

 

Former Detective David March, former Officer Joseph Walsh and Officer Thomas Gaffney were charged in an indictment in 2017 with lying in police reports to exaggerate the threat posed by McDonald.

 

The October 2014 shooting was captured in a now-infamous police dashboard camera video that showed Officer Jason Van Dyke shoot McDonald 16 times as the black teen walked from police down Pulaski Road holding a small folding knife.

 

March, Walsh and Gaffney later submitted paperwork, however, that described McDonald as the aggressor, and Van Dyke and other officers as the victims of a battery.

 

They are each charged with official misconduct, obstructing justice and conspiracy.

 

It’s believed to be the first time any Chicago police officer has faced criminal charges stemming from an alleged cover-up of an on-duty shooting.

[Winstonm]

President Donald Trump on Thursday announced that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s scheduled trip to Egypt, Brussels and Afghanistan “has been postponed.”

 

“We will reschedule this seven-day excursion when the Shutdown is over,” Trump said in a letter to Pelosi, referring to the nearly four-week-long partial shutdown of the government over border security disputes between the president and Democratic lawmakers.

 

Individual-1 threatens to hold his breath until the Senate turns blue. B-)

[rmnka447]

Individual-1 threatens to hold his breath until the Senate turns blue. B-)

 

In your wildest dreams, Winnie!!

 

The current impasse and political situation reminds me of a couple current affairs events in the recent past.

 

The "trip postponement" is eerily similar to when Kim Jung Un boasted about having a button on his desk and President Trump retorted "I've got a bigger button and mine works."

 

It also occurs to me that the shutdown is very similar to when the Reps tried to shutdown the government during the Obama administration. Mitch McConnell is doing a great Harry Reid imitation in the Senate and President Trump is out-Obamaing Obama. King Barak I was terrific at talking about compromise, then coming out a day or two later and saying he wouldn't sign anything unless it had what he had originally asked for. In the end, Reid and Obama were able to make the Reps cave on the shutdown. Let's see how the Dems fair.

 

Now, I won't compare Speaker Pelosi to any of the Reps who sought to shutdown the government. She's either being held hostage by the radical left of the Dem party or has become unhinged with a severe case of Trump Derangement Syndrome. Take your pick.

 

The funniest moments of this situation was the Dem response to President Trump's speech. Many comments abounded about how Chuck and Nancy looked and spoke like cardboard cut-outs. That was pretty apt. But the best satire of that situation was the person who imposed Chuck and Nancy's faces over Grant Wood's classic painting American Gothic -- perfect!

 

The Dem push for opening the government and then negotiating on border security is a con job. Starting with the Reagan administration, the Dems promised to follow up on improved border security and comprehensive immigration reform for amnesty. Then they reneged. Several times since, it's been the same story. Reps know that if they open up the government, the Dems won't negotiate nor compromise on border security. Once burned, twice wise.

 

I think the situation may linger until the new mega-caravan gets to the border. It may be the tipping point to turn public opinion in favor of the "wall".

[Winstonm]

Check or checkmate?

 

President Donald Trump directed his longtime attorney Michael Cohen to lie to Congress about negotiations to build a Trump Tower in Moscow, according to two federal law enforcement officials involved in an investigation of the matter.

[johnu]

The "trip postponement" is eerily similar to when Kim Jung Un boasted about having a button on his desk and President Trump retorted "I've got a bigger button and mine works."

Is Dennison's bigger button really big like his very big hands? Certainly cancelling Pelosi's trip was probably irritating to Pelosi and others in the delegation, but all in all, no big deal. And it showed the pettiness of Dennison, especially as Melania was flying on Air Force 2 down to Florida for a vacation. Postponing (or even cancelling) the State of the Union message where Dennison was going to take the opportunity to try to savage the Democrats over the wall? Basically the biggest presidential PR event of the year. Who do you think won that round?

 

It also occurs to me that the shutdown is very similar to when the Reps tried to shutdown the government during the Obama administration.

Yes, Republicans love to shut down government and cut services that people need.

 

Now, I won't compare Speaker Pelosi to any of the Reps who sought to shutdown the government. She's either being held hostage by the radical left of the Dem party or has become unhinged with a severe case of Trump Derangement Syndrome. Take your pick.

Are you so stupid that you don't know that President Coulter's puppet Dennison agreed on the budget and said he was going to sign and that the Republican majority Senate passed a spending bill by a veto proof majority. And that because President Coulter has said no negotiations, lying Mitch the hypocrite has refused to let the new budget bill (actually almost the same bill passed and approved in the last Congress) come to a vote. I withdraw the question.

 

The funniest moments of this situation was the Dem response to President Trump's speech. Many comments abounded about how Chuck and Nancy looked and spoke like cardboard cut-outs. That was pretty apt. But the best satire of that situation was the person who imposed Chuck and Nancy's faces over Grant Wood's classic painting American Gothic -- perfect!

The Dennison Lie Counting app overheated and broke down because it couldn't keep up with the lies during Dennison's speech. Dennison already said he could declare a national emergency and build the wall without the Democrats. Dennison has said many times that he is already building the wall (and maybe it is almost finished :lol: ). If the border is such a serious and immediate problem, isn't Dennison President Coulter derelict in his job in not declaring a national emergency? :lol:

 

The Dem push for opening the government and then negotiating on border security is a con job. Starting with the Reagan administration, the Dems promised to follow up on improved border security and comprehensive immigration reform for amnesty. Then they reneged. Several times since, it's been the same story. Reps know that if they open up the government, the Dems won't negotiate nor compromise on border security. Once burned, twice wise.

Do you get tired of being ignorant? Apparently not.

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/19/border-wall-democrats-respond-470687

 

Dennison could have had 25 billion, not just 5 billion, for his border wall if he had been willing to negotiate in good faith.

 

I think the situation may linger until the new mega-caravan gets to the border. It may be the tipping point to turn public opinion in favor of the "wall".

Wow, your amygdala must be stuck in overdrive. In any case, the only wall that's going up right now is the wall around Dennison to try to insulate himself against felony charges and the Mueller investigation.

[johnu]

Check or checkmate?

In bridge terms, claim all, or concede all.

 

Democrats demand investigation after report that Trump ordered Michael Cohen to lie to Congress

 

Democratic leaders reacted with fury and demanded an investigation late Thursday following a new report that President Trump personally directed his former attorney, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress about the president’s push for a lucrative condo project in Moscow in the lead-up to the 2016 election.

Rudolph W. Giuliani, Trump’s attorney, responded to the report by saying, "If you believe Cohen I can get you a great deal on the Brooklyn Bridge.”

Dennison's "free" attorney gives advice worthy of his compensation.

 

But BuzzFeed says that Mueller’s office has more evidence than just Cohen’s testimony that Trump directed him to lie to Congress. Per the report, Cohen’s testimony is backed up by “interviews with multiple witnesses from the Trump Organization and internal company emails, text messages, and a cache of other documents.”

Cohen is just the guy who says "Look here, and look there". Without corroboration, it's his word against Dennison's. Cohen has been convicted of lying to the FBI, Dennison is unindicted Individual-1. It might be hard to pick a winner if this was Liars Poker. With corroboration, it looks like Dennison is going to be buried.

[andrei]

Wow, your amygdala must be stuck in overdrive.

 

lol @ sensitive John

[Winstonm]

It goes to show the mindset of the president's "base" when an allegation so serious it could end his presidency is ignored but the spiteful trip cancellation is held up as presidential acumen. This is allowing bitterness and resentment to overwhelm intelligence.

[Winstonm]

 

I think the situation may linger until the new mega-caravan gets to the border. It may be the tipping point to turn public opinion in favor of the "wall".

 

You mean when the next group of asylum-seekers lawfully presents themselves at a border checkpoint? Yes, that should really terrify us all.

 

I was wondering, does it matter to you that the narrative this president has carefully crafted about himself - that he is a self-made successful businessman - is all false, that his "success" came from a combination of support from his father's wealth and the image-creating mastery of television producers for "The Apprentice"?

[y66]

Guest post from Paul Krugman via twitter

 

A thought about where we are as a nation: We're living in the age of the unsurprising revelation. Is there anyone who doesn't already believe that Trump-Putin-treason is a real thing? Even Trump loyalists surely know it's true, they just think it's an OK price for the racism.

 

The question instead is when and whether the evidence will become so dramatic, so blatant, that Trump's defenders won't feel able to keep pretending they don't know. That is, it's not really about what we learn but about how it plays.

 

Think of the Steve King story as a dress rehearsal. Everyone knew what he was, and has for years. Somehow, though, we reached a tipping point where GOP leaders felt they had to say "We're shocked, shocked to find open racism going on in our party!"

 

I don't know if we'll ever reach that sort of tipping point with Trump. But even if we do, remember: they've known all along, but were willing to sell out America as long as it was convenient.

Anyone who thinks Trump is the only problem isn't paying attention.

[Winstonm]

Yep, a wall. That'll do it.

 

The largest single group of asylum seekers ever to cross into the U.S. tunneled beneath the border wall near San Luis, Arizona, on Monday, voluntarily turning themselves into Customs and Border Protection, according to the agency.

[hrothgar]

 

I think the situation may linger until the new mega-caravan gets to the border. It may be the tipping point to turn public opinion in favor of the "wall".

 

If you're serious about this, then you are dumber than I thought...

 

The last caravan, like the caravans before it marched right up to the "wall" and promptly applied for asylum.

They did so are the heavily monitored section of the border at San Diego (Which has one of the most serious sections of "wall")

 

The existence of a physical barrier is completely irrelevant to the asylum process.

 

Its only idiots like you who believe the ridiculous claims that there is a linkage between building more concrete barriers and dealing with the humanitarian crisis at the border.

[johnu]

Yep, a wall. That'll do it.

The largest single group of asylum seekers ever to cross into the U.S. tunneled beneath the border wall near San Luis, Arizona, on Monday, voluntarily turning themselves into Customs and Border Protection, according to the agency.

 

How could immigrants do that Andrei? Were they highly trained agents from Mission Impossible?

[hrothgar]

Beginning to look like the President was involved in a conspiracy to suborn perjury and specifically directed Cohen to lie to congress.

 

This is a felony.

[y66]

Please pass the pizza.

[rmnka447]

It goes to show the mindset of the president's "base" when an allegation so serious it could end his presidency is ignored but the spiteful trip cancellation is held up as presidential acumen. This is allowing bitterness and resentment to overwhelm intelligence.

 

The Special Counsel's office has said the Buzzfeed report is inaccurate. But, of course, in the progressive biosphere, the steady stream of unattributed accusations are considered all fact and must be shaking our democracy to its foundations. The only problem with that reality is that whenever things aren't going well for the Dems, one of these "bombshells" seems to appear with a regularity that is unreal. But, of course, fake news is that way.

 

The President postponing the trip was a political act just like Speaker Pelosi's refusing to make the House available for the State of the Union Address. Sure its tit for tat, if you please. But it made its point that if Speaker Pelosi wants to play political games she'll get full measure back.

 

Of course, it focuses attention that the Speaker who has been claiming the Dems were with the workers was going out of the country for a week and ensuring the shutdown would last a week longer. Guess the Dems are more interested in retreating to Puerto Rico to a lobbyist sponsored and paid for "retreat" on the beach and junkets to smooze with the financial elite in Switzerland than address the problems facing this nation. The optics are terrible for Dems, my friend.

[johnu]

Evangelical University Praises IT Chief Who Allegedly Participated In Trump Poll Fraud

 

I would expect nothing less from a college founded by Jerry Falwell. It's clear that IT Chief Gauger was on a Mission From God. :rolleyes:

[johnu]

The Special Counsel's office has said the Buzzfeed report is inaccurate. But, of course, in the progressive biosphere, the steady stream of unattributed accusations are considered all fact and must be shaking our democracy to its foundations. The only problem with that reality is that whenever things aren't going well for the Dems, one of these "bombshells" seems to appear with a regularity that is unreal. But, of course, fake news is that way.

And this is being discussed extensively on MSNBC and other "real" news networks. That's the difference between them and Fox Propaganda which will sometimes just make up things, and then refuse to correct them on air, or even continue to repeat things when confronted with evidence that they are completely wrong.

 

And Buzzfeed is not backing down and insists that the original reporting is correct. We don't know exactly what Mueller's office thinks is inaccurate. It could be something substantial, or something very minor.

 

The President postponing the trip was a political act just like Speaker Pelosi's refusing to make the House available for the State of the Union Address. Sure its tit for tat, if you please. But it made its point that if Speaker Pelosi wants to play political games she'll get full measure back.

As I previously noted, cancelled State of the Union speech versus cancelled flight. Do you really claim to not know who scored a knockdown, and who is trash talking while still dazed and laying on the canvas? Dennison is going to have the White House plumbers wall-borders (sic) over to Pelosi's office and build a wall in front of her office. That will be full measure. B-)

 

Of course, it focuses attention that the Speaker who has been claiming the Dems were with the workers was going out of the country for a week and ensuring the shutdown would last a week longer. Guess the Dems are more interested in retreating to Puerto Rico to a lobbyist sponsored and paid for "retreat" on the beach and junkets to smooze with the financial elite in Switzerland than address the problems facing this nation. The optics are terrible for Dems, my friend.

Your ignorance is stunning. Not "Stunning" Steve King stunning, but Pelosi was going to Afghanistan to meet troops and commanders on the ground. Dennison already literally pounded on a table and stormed out of a negotiation with Pelosi and Schumer and has said he won't negotiate. Staying in Washington wasn't going to speed up anything.

 

From the right fringe Republican viewpoint, just existing is terrible optics for Democrats. :rolleyes:

[hrothgar]

The Special Counsel's office has said the Buzzfeed report is inaccurate.

 

The Special Counsel is disputing specific details about Buzzfeed's: (For example, the accuracy of the underlying quotes or whether they were specifically collected by Muller as opposed to, say, the SDNY)

 

I don't believe that they have disputed the primary claim (The President suborned perjury)

 

Time will tell