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Has U.S. Democracy Been Trumped?


Winstonm

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Do you think that the US must have the approval/support of its allies before attempting to negotiate a better deal for the US?

 

I believe that there are significant costs associated with erratic behaviour.

If you can not trust that a country will live up to its word, why enter into any kind of agreement to begin with?

 

You disagree with Trump about the current agreement. Do you have some information that causes you to hold that position?

 

I certainly don't have any classified information if that is what you mean.

 

I like to think that I am reasonable well informed on Middle Eastern politics.

 

  • I have a degree in History with a focus on Turkey and the Middle East
  • My father taught political science at Vassar for many years and the Middle East was one of his areas of specialty
  • I have travelled extensively in both Turkey and Iran
  • I also have a whole bunch of friends at the State Department and I know what they have to say about our fearless leader

 

I can take a look at the track record of the foreign policy experts who support Trump and compare them with the record of those who oppose Trump.

I know which ones are more trustworty

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Why do you only ask questions and never answer anything?

 

I think that there are two plausible explanations

 

1. Drews grasp of facts is "iffy" at best. As such, he steers away from making statements that can be checked against reality

2. Drews is attempting to run some kind of Socratic dialogue, much as Luke Warm did years back... Sadly, these don't work too well when they're being run by an idiot

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There really hasn't been any change other than the way that you are choosing to interpret facts.

 

The stock market, unemployment, etc are all following the same long term trends that they were on before.

 

With this said and done, I think that we're headed for a major correction (I pulled my $$$ from the market back in August)

 

Not sure what will trigger it. Maybe impeachment. Maybe some stupid military action. Maybe just animal spirits. But it feels as if its time for the bears to come out and play...

 

I love to see how the economy has been growing steadily according to Mother Jones. Would anyone expect them to show anything different? BTW, the historical growth in the stock market has always been about 7-8% per year long term since they started measuring it.

 

But if you look at a shorter period, it's not so clear that there was "steady" increase. Looking back at 5 year charts for the Dow Jones and S&P 500 provides some interesting perspective. I picked off approximate values at the beginning of each year, current value, and shortly before the election.

 

DJIA

 

Current 24,000

1/17 20,000

8-9/16 18,000

1/16 17,600

1/15 18,000

1/14 16,500

1/13 13,000

 

S&P 500

 

Current 2,700

1/17 2,300

8-9/16 2,100

1/16 1,900

1/15 2,000

1/14 1,800

1/13 1,500

 

Both showed about the same thing, between 1/14 and the 2016 election, there was some modest increase in the averages but they were pretty flat after 1/15. These were borne out by the growth in GDP which was less than 2% annually I believe in that period.

 

But since the election, both indices have risen by about a third of the value of the indices (DJIA 18,000 -> 24,000, S&P 500 2100 -> 2700) just before the election.

 

Let's give it to Mother Jones for creative graph creation and curve fitting/line drawing.

 

In the past, the stock market has been an indicator of the economy and has historically led (been ahead of) the economy by about 6 months. So you'd expect the economy to be at least a little better with its huge rise. The question is where the market belongs long term. Is it just recovering to a level it should have been at but for the business stifling policies of the Obama administration. Or, is it somewhat overvalued and will correct back to a lower level that is still quite a bit above the levels during the Obama administration. Stay tuned.

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I love to see how the economy has been growing steadily according to Mother Jones. Would anyone expect them to show anything different? BTW, the historical growth in the stock market has always been about 7-8% per year long term since they started measuring it.

 

I thought MJ picked a fairly reasonable starting point for this analysis

Jan 1, 2010 is a nice round number

 

If you prefer, we can move back a year to the start of Obama's term...

Or chose the point where the S&P bottomed out...

 

FWIW, the reason that people look at long term trends is to avoid just the sort of cherry picking that you are doing,

 

Oh! If I start the analysis on 2015 look how weak things look!

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For all of his "ineptness" the country and the economy seems to be doing OK. It certainly feels better than it did a couple of years ago.

He hasn't actually done anything. No significant legislation that he's spearheaded has passed. The tax bill will be his first legislative success, and it looks like a disaster for the middle class.

 

Looking at the stock market as an indicator of his success is crazy. Much of his policy benefits mainly rich business owners, and they also do much of the investing. The DJIA is hardly a representation of how the country is doing as a whole.

 

Unemployment is almost nonexistent, yet wages haven't been improving, and many of the jobs are poor ones. Income inequality is the worst it's ever been, and his policies will just make things worse.

 

Trump's foreign policy is making us a pariah among our "allies". Even Israaelis were not in favor of his recognition of Jerusalem (our past non-recognition was not considered a problem).

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I believe that there are significant costs associated with erratic behaviour.

If you can not trust that a country will live up to its word, why enter into any kind of agreement to begin with?

 

 

 

I certainly don't have any classified information if that is what you mean.

 

I like to think that I am reasonable well informed on Middle Eastern politics.

 

  • I have a degree in History with a focus on Turkey and the Middle East
  • My father taught political science at Vassar for many years and the Middle East was one of his areas of specialty
  • I have travelled extensively in both Turkey and Iran
  • I also have a whole bunch of friends at the State Department and I know what they have to say about our fearless leader

 

I can take a look at the track record of the foreign policy experts who support Trump and compare them with the record of those who oppose Trump.

I know which ones are more trustworty

 

Great! Then with your education and experience you must have a solution to the Middle East problems. Would you mind sharing them because I certainly don't see them.

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I think that there are two plausible explanations

 

1. Drews grasp of facts is "iffy" at best. As such, he steers away from making statements that can be checked against reality

2. Drews is attempting to run some kind of Socratic dialogue, much as Luke Warm did years back... Sadly, these don't work too well when they're being run by an idiot

 

Well they certainly would not work in an audience of idiots as well.

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He hasn't actually done anything. No significant legislation that he's spearheaded has passed. The tax bill will be his first legislative success, and it looks like a disaster for the middle class.

 

Looking at the stock market as an indicator of his success is crazy. Much of his policy benefits mainly rich business owners, and they also do much of the investing. The DJIA is hardly a representation of how the country is doing as a whole.

 

Unemployment is almost nonexistent, yet wages haven't been improving, and many of the jobs are poor ones. Income inequality is the worst it's ever been, and his policies will just make things worse.

 

Trump's foreign policy is making us a pariah among our "allies". Even Israaelis were not in favor of his recognition of Jerusalem (our past non-recognition was not considered a problem).

 

I was under the impression that Trump has signed some 80+ bills into law, something of a record pace. Is this incorrect?

 

Unemployment is at a 17 year low, wages ticked up slightly the recent quarter, stock market is at record highs, consumer confidence is at record highs, 200,000+ new jobs were just added including a significant number of manufacturing jobs. Perhaps Trump is not responsible for this but it is happening on his watch. I think I would stick with the guy enjoying good luck. As my grandfather told me, "I would rather be lucky than talented".

 

So what does it take for you to concede that the economy is improving? Doesn't two consecutive quarters of 3+% growth, while suffering from 5 hurricanes, and after several years of <3% growth count? What does it take?

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Great! Then with your education and experience you must have a solution to the Middle East problems. Would you mind sharing them because I certainly don't see them.

 

I don't think that anyone has a "solution" to the issues in the Middle East, however, I think that its pretty trivial to improve the trajectory.

 

To start with, I'd re-empower the state department rather than relying Trump's dim witted son-in-law to make "a deal"...

That seems like a pretty good idea.

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I don't think that anyone has a "solution" to the issues in the Middle East, however, I think that its pretty trivial to improve the trajectory.

 

To start with, I'd re-empower the state department rather than relying Trump's dim witted son-in-law to make "a deal"...

That seems like a pretty good idea.

 

I am not so sure. The State Department has had many years to try to effect a solution and has had little or no success. What would make you think they would do any better now? As Einstein has been quoted: "Doing the same thing over again and again and expecting a different result is a sign of insanity".

 

Perhaps it is time to try radically different approaches.

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It is really fascinating to watch this group and other liberal/left leaning groups. Each day Trump tweets something in the morning that outrages or offends the left and the media and they spend the rest of the day reacting to it. Meanwhile Trump is busy making the kinds of changes that he intends without acquiring a lot of notice.

 

For example:

Trump has one Supreme Court justice, nine circuit court appeals judges and six district court judges. These conservative men and women will serve for decades on the courts, shifting the balance rightward long after Trump's time as president ends, and with it the tenure of several GOP senators.

 

"The #Senate has confirmed 3X the amount of Circuit Judges for @POTUS in his first year than President Obama," McConnell crowed in a tweet crediting Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa.

 

And the various agencies have been instructed to and are busy rolling back regulations.

 

One report indicated that about 75% of Obama's accomplishments were by Executive Order. Trump is busy reversing a significant portion of those EOs.

 

So you guys keep fuming about Trump's demeanor, appearance, twitters, and lack of unity with foreign and international allies/groups, etc. Meanwhile the landscape is being altered right under your feet.

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For centuries, the Nile flooded every year. In modern times, human sacrifice to the god Ra to prevent Nile flooding would certainly qualify as a radically different approach to flood control, but the action that finally worked was the Aswan High Dam, accomplished after multiple failures of other dams - so doing the same thing slightly differently turned out to be a much wiser and more successful approach.

 

Then there is the fellow who holds all the cards, owns the dealer, owns the casino, owns the chips, and has no opponent, yet still can't figure out how to win a hand - and his supporters talk about how clever he is at distractions because he is able to accomplish something that his opponents have zero power to prevent.

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I was reading that in the 2018 elections, 23 Democratic senators are up for re-election, 10 from states that voted for Trump in 2016. 8 Republican senators are up for re-election. Unless the Democrats get their act together between now an the 2018 elections, it is quite probable that the Republicans will increase their majority in the Senate. And the Democrats are not demonstrating that they will get their act together.

 

As James Carville noted many years ago: "It's the economy, stupid!" If the Democrats continue to focus on social issues, such as sexual misbehavior, or continue to push the "Russian collusion" story, I don't think they will do well. Their only hope is that Trump is found guilty of such a crime that he is impeached and removed from office. After a year of investigation there is still no apparent evidence that Trump did anything illegal much less impeachable. Anyone want to place a bet on that?

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With a 32% presidential approval rating, a 63% presidential disapproval rating, and a presidential popular vote loss of almost 3 million votes, it's easy to see why Trump supporters can't figure out how they can lose any Congressional seats. When the reddest of red states is in panic mode because a Democrat has a 50-50 shot of being elected as their senator, it is easy to understand why there should be nothing but optimism on the right. When red state red district seats keep getting flipped, it is an obvious sign that Trump is on the right path. ;)
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With a 32% presidential approval rating, a 63% presidential disapproval rating, and a presidential popular vote loss of almost 3 million votes, it's easy to see why Trump supporters can't figure out how they can lose any Congressional seats. When the reddest of red states is in panic mode because a Democrat has a 50-50 shot of being elected as their senator, it is easy to understand why there should be nothing but optimism on the right. When red state red district seats keep getting flipped, it is an obvious sign that Trump is on the right path. ;)

 

Want to lay on a bet?

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Apparently the US has spent >6 trillion dollars on wars in the Middle East. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/oct/27/donald-trump/did-us-spend-6-trillion-middle-east-wars/

 

Just think what the US could have done for social programs and infrastructure with that money.

 

Thank you Clinton, Bush, Obama, and now Trump.

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I was under the impression that Trump has signed some 80+ bills into law, something of a record pace. Is this incorrect?

I have no idea. I was very careful to say "significant legislation that he spearheaded". Just signing bills that come from Congress doesn't require any leadership, just agreement.

Unemployment is at a 17 year low, wages ticked up slightly the recent quarter, stock market is at record highs, consumer confidence is at record highs, 200,000+ new jobs were just added including a significant number of manufacturing jobs. Perhaps Trump is not responsible for this but it is happening on his watch. I think I would stick with the guy enjoying good luck. As my grandfather told me, "I would rather be lucky than talented".

I think all those things could have been said a year ago, too. All this means is that Trump hasn't caused the country to implode. The President isn't a dictator, and the economy has enormous inertia.

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One thing that must be understood about the “Obama economy” is how little impact he was able to have after 2010, with Republicans in congress blocking every proposal. Comparing the “anemic recovery” from 2008 crash to other recessions, one observes the significant DECREASE in government jobs and spending, which effectively knee-capped the recovery. Much of this was at the (mostly Republican-controlled) state level of course, but even President “government is the problem” Reagen saw an uptick in government jobs during his term.

 

Basically everyone knows that we need an infrastructure bill. Obama asked for one on multiple occasions only to get negative answers from a Republican congress intent on cutting every major program that helps lower income Americans (even the middle class tax cuts in the stimulus were allowed by Republicans to expire without comment, at the same time they were fighting tooth an nail to keep Bush era tax cuts on millionaires in place).

 

There are a number of reasons the stock market has done well under Trump. Some of them:

 

1. Hope that some infrastructure bill (part of Trump platform too) will finally pass.

2. Hope that tax cuts will lead to corporate stock buy backs and acquisitions (lucrative for investors, but not particularly great for workers).

3. Hope that tax cuts will put more money in hands of rich investors (and they gotta Park it somewhere, certainly won’t be spending it).

4. Reduced regulation of big banks and extractive industries will lead to more profits in those sectors, at least in the short term. These are some of the stocks that have done best under Trump.

5. We are less likely to see a crack down on ridiculously high drug prices, leading to more profits for the drug industry.

6. Some of the “Trump is crazy” panic was priced in during the six months or so before the election, when the market had a bit of a slowdown.

7. Trump hasn’t started a war yet, or really done anything to impact the “real economy” significantly. The tax bill (if congress comes to agreement) will be the first big change. Canceling TPP was priced in (Hillary also against it, probably Senate would not approve, etc). If Trump actually cancels NAFTA as he has threatened that will be another big one.

 

I’m actually more optimistic about the market in the short term than Hrothgar — usually the market seems to react well to upward wealth transfer (in the short term anyway).

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One thing that must be understood about the “Obama economy” is how little impact he was able to have after 2010, with Republicans in congress blocking every proposal. Comparing the “anemic recovery” from 2008 crash to other recessions, one observes the significant DECREASE in government jobs and spending, which effectively knee-capped the recovery. Much of this was at the (mostly Republican-controlled) state level of course, but even President “government is the problem” Reagen saw an uptick in government jobs during his term.

 

Basically everyone knows that we need an infrastructure bill. Obama asked for one on multiple occasions only to get negative answers from a Republican congress intent on cutting every major program that helps lower income Americans (even the middle class tax cuts in the stimulus were allowed by Republicans to expire without comment, at the same time they were fighting tooth an nail to keep Bush era tax cuts on millionaires in place).

 

There are a number of reasons the stock market has done well under Trump. Some of them:

 

1. Hope that some infrastructure bill (part of Trump platform too) will finally pass.

2. Hope that tax cuts will lead to corporate stock buy backs and acquisitions (lucrative for investors, but not particularly great for workers).

3. Hope that tax cuts will put more money in hands of rich investors (and they gotta Park it somewhere, certainly won’t be spending it).

4. Reduced regulation of big banks and extractive industries will lead to more profits in those sectors, at least in the short term. These are some of the stocks that have done best under Trump.

5. We are less likely to see a crack down on ridiculously high drug prices, leading to more profits for the drug industry.

6. Some of the “Trump is crazy” panic was priced in during the six months or so before the election, when the market had a bit of a slowdown.

7. Trump hasn’t started a war yet, or really done anything to impact the “real economy” significantly. The tax bill (if congress comes to agreement) will be the first big change. Canceling TPP was priced in (Hillary also against it, probably Senate would not approve, etc). If Trump actually cancels NAFTA as he has threatened that will be another big one.

 

I’m actually more optimistic about the market in the short term than Hrothgar — usually the market seems to react well to upward wealth transfer (in the short term anyway).

 

Do you think small business growth contributes anything significant to the economy, or does it all trickle down from government and big corporations?

 

By the way, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

 

1 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 49 50 to 99 100 to 249 250 to 499 500 to 999 1,000 or more

employees employees employees employees employees employees employees employees employees

First

Quarter Levels (in thousands)

 

1993 4,960 5,994 7,169 10,043 7,523 9,256 6,222 5,806 31,628

1994 5,024 6,092 7,335 10,379 7,741 9,652 6,509 6,021 32,592

1995 5,097 6,180 7,505 10,681 8,076 10,059 6,809 6,291 33,957

1996 5,136 6,225 7,578 10,857 8,246 10,310 7,013 6,561 34,689

1997 5,218 6,302 7,715 11,117 8,412 10,593 7,247 6,886 36,007

1998 5,241 6,315 7,780 11,230 8,541 10,838 7,464 7,134 37,783

1999 5,311 6,413 7,902 11,427 8,702 11,016 7,585 7,324 39,132

2000 5,324 6,468 8,061 11,682 8,936 11,263 7,922 7,559 40,583

2001 5,346 6,450 8,069 11,698 8,922 11,398 7,907 7,620 41,246

2002 5,381 6,473 8,039 11,597 8,678 11,035 7,577 7,252 39,919

2003 5,464 6,510 8,058 11,522 8,613 10,940 7,504 7,118 39,529

2004 5,534 6,595 8,142 11,661 8,723 11,028 7,605 7,204 39,662

2005 5,613 6,619 8,212 11,804 8,872 11,315 7,811 7,350 40,562

2006 5,744 6,693 8,349 12,069 9,106 11,568 7,953 7,564 41,714

2007 5,787 6,708 8,381 12,168 9,217 11,716 8,026 7,628 42,642

2008 5,765 6,620 8,274 12,048 9,155 11,708 8,060 7,643 43,110

2009 5,618 6,361 7,904 11,356 8,526 10,872 7,583 7,249 41,093

2010 5,527 6,221 7,688 10,990 8,252 10,664 7,340 7,126 40,072

2011 5,549 6,216 7,719 11,124 8,414 10,901 7,520 7,353 40,992

2012 5,564 6,298 7,859 11,404 8,635 11,204 7,741 7,585 42,167

2013 5,592 6,323 7,949 11,627 8,780 11,355 7,897 7,833 43,222

2014 5,628 6,374 8,100 11,912 8,884 11,612 8,063 7,995 44,283

2015 5,666 6,410 8,231 12,226 9,099 11,848 8,314 8,087 45,689

2016 5,722 6,476 8,385 12,521 9,270 12,023 8,451 8,266 46,968

2017 5,772 6,501 8,489 12,702 9,413 12,201 8,645 8,405 48,007

 

Shares (percent)

 

1993 5.59 6.76 8.09 11.33 8.49 10.44 7.02 6.55 35.69

1994 5.50 6.66 8.03 11.36 8.47 10.56 7.12 6.59 35.68

1995 5.38 6.52 7.92 11.28 8.53 10.62 7.19 6.64 35.87

1996 5.31 6.44 7.84 11.23 8.53 10.67 7.25 6.79 35.90

1997 5.24 6.33 7.75 11.17 8.45 10.64 7.28 6.92 36.18

1998 5.12 6.17 7.60 10.97 8.34 10.59 7.29 6.97 36.92

1999 5.06 6.11 7.53 10.90 8.30 10.51 7.23 6.98 37.33

2000 4.93 6.00 7.47 10.83 8.29 10.44 7.34 7.01 37.64

2001 4.92 5.93 7.42 10.76 8.21 10.49 7.27 7.01 37.96

2002 5.07 6.10 7.58 10.94 8.19 10.41 7.15 6.84 37.67

2003 5.19 6.18 7.65 10.94 8.18 10.39 7.12 6.76 37.55

2004 5.21 6.21 7.67 10.98 8.21 10.38 7.16 6.78 37.36

2005 5.19 6.12 7.59 10.91 8.20 10.46 7.22 6.79 37.50

2006 5.18 6.04 7.53 10.89 8.22 10.44 7.18 6.82 37.66

2007 5.15 5.97 7.46 10.83 8.20 10.43 7.14 6.79 37.98

2008 5.13 5.89 7.36 10.72 8.14 10.41 7.17 6.80 38.36

2009 5.27 5.96 7.41 10.65 8.00 10.20 7.11 6.80 38.56

2010 5.32 5.98 7.40 10.58 7.94 10.26 7.06 6.86 38.57

2011 5.24 5.87 7.29 10.51 7.95 10.30 7.10 6.95 38.74

2012 5.13 5.80 7.24 10.51 7.96 10.33 7.13 6.99 38.87

2013 5.05 5.71 7.18 10.51 7.94 10.26 7.14 7.08 39.08

2014 4.98 5.64 7.17 10.55 7.87 10.29 7.14 7.08 39.24

2015 4.90 5.54 7.12 10.57 7.87 10.25 7.19 6.99 39.53

2016 4.84 5.48 7.10 10.60 7.85 10.18 7.15 7.00 39.77

2017 4.80 5.41 7.06 10.57 7.83 10.15 7.19 6.99 39.96

 

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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One thing that must be understood about the “Obama economy” is how little impact he was able to have after 2010, with Republicans in congress blocking every proposal. Comparing the “anemic recovery” from 2008 crash to other recessions, one observes the significant DECREASE in government jobs and spending, which effectively knee-capped the recovery. Much of this was at the (mostly Republican-controlled) state level of course, but even President “government is the problem” Reagen saw an uptick in government jobs during his term.

 

Basically everyone knows that we need an infrastructure bill. Obama asked for one on multiple occasions only to get negative answers from a Republican congress intent on cutting every major program that helps lower income Americans (even the middle class tax cuts in the stimulus were allowed by Republicans to expire without comment, at the same time they were fighting tooth an nail to keep Bush era tax cuts on millionaires in place).

 

There are a number of reasons the stock market has done well under Trump. Some of them:

 

1. Hope that some infrastructure bill (part of Trump platform too) will finally pass.

2. Hope that tax cuts will lead to corporate stock buy backs and acquisitions (lucrative for investors, but not particularly great for workers).

3. Hope that tax cuts will put more money in hands of rich investors (and they gotta Park it somewhere, certainly won’t be spending it).

4. Reduced regulation of big banks and extractive industries will lead to more profits in those sectors, at least in the short term. These are some of the stocks that have done best under Trump.

5. We are less likely to see a crack down on ridiculously high drug prices, leading to more profits for the drug industry.

6. Some of the “Trump is crazy” panic was priced in during the six months or so before the election, when the market had a bit of a slowdown.

7. Trump hasn’t started a war yet, or really done anything to impact the “real economy” significantly. The tax bill (if congress comes to agreement) will be the first big change. Canceling TPP was priced in (Hillary also against it, probably Senate would not approve, etc). If Trump actually cancels NAFTA as he has threatened that will be another big one.

 

I’m actually more optimistic about the market in the short term than Hrothgar — usually the market seems to react well to upward wealth transfer (in the short term anyway).

Well stated. The disturbing part of your list is that with the exception of the long overdue infrastructure bill, the PTB are engineering wealth creation by expanding the asset bubble in Wall Street instead of working with Main Street.

 

Inflating the Wall Street bubble maintains the illusion of a bustling economy while Main Street and blue-collar workers in the Russet Belt and beyond get left in the wind. Our growth is NOT organic; it is engineered. As you stated, it is built on cash flush corporations initiating stock buybacks and mergers and acquisitions which will ultimately lead to more layoffs and downsizing as they identify and eliminate process redundancies. The business community will say this is an inevitable conclusion as Corporate America seeks to create economies of scale and economies of scope with the newly created too big to fail entities.

 

Beyonce Knowles asked in one of her songs "Who runs the world?" Nope, it's not girls. It's faceless multinational corporations who run this world, dominate our domestic policy, and have assumed personhood through Citizens United to buy our politicians lock, stock, and barrel.

 

We are just squirrels trying to get a nut!

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I think that there are two plausible explanations

 

1. Drews grasp of facts is "iffy" at best. As such, he steers away from making statements that can be checked against reality

2. Drews is attempting to run some kind of Socratic dialogue, much as Luke Warm did years back... Sadly, these don't work too well when they're being run by an idiot

I think he's just a total and complete arsehole Richard. A small man with nothing going on in his life so he thinks trolling "lefties" is some sort of success. Very sad.

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