Has U.S. Democracy Been Trumped?

[y66]

From What good are elections, anyway? by Jennifer Victor at Vox:

 

Elections are a necessary but flawed system in democracy. There are good reasons to vote and good reasons to hold elections, but “because that’s how we hold representatives accountable” is not one of them. There are at least three big reasons why elections are imperfect mechanisms of accountability: limited agency, limited cognition, and oversensitivity.

 

...

 

It’s okay that elections probably do not provide accountability. There are other ways of holding elected people accountable (if they are operational). So don’t vote because it makes democracy work; vote because you want to live in a democracy, and if you don’t vote, it won’t be one anymore.

[y66]

From Congress Has No Clue What Americans Want by Alexander Hertel-Fernandez, Matto Mildenberger and Leah C. Stokes at NYT:

 

Congress doesn’t know what policies Americans support. We know that because we asked the most senior staff members in Congress — the people who help their bosses decide what bills to pursue and support — what they believed public opinion was in their district or state on a range of issues.

 

In a research paper, we compared their responses with our best guesses of what the public in their districts or states actually wanted using large-scale public opinion surveys and standard models. Across the board, we found that congressional aides are wildly inaccurate in their perceptions of their constituents’ opinions and preferences.

 

For instance, if we took a group of people who reflected the makeup of America and asked them whether they supported background checks for gun sales, nine out of 10 would say yes. But congressional aides guessed as few as one in 10 citizens in their district or state favored the policy. Shockingly, 92 percent of the staff members we surveyed underestimated support in their district or state for background checks, including all Republican aides and over 85 percent of Democratic aides.

 

The same is true for the four other issues we looked at: regulating carbon emissions to address the climate crisis, repealing the Affordable Care Act, raising the federal minimum wage and investing in infrastructure. On climate change, the average aide thought only a minority of his or her district wanted action, when in truth a majority supported regulating carbon.

 

Across the five issues, Democratic staff members tended to be more accurate than Republicans. Democrats guessed about 13 points closer to the truth on average than Republicans.

 

Our research isn’t unique: As a similar study showed, state politicians also do a poor job guessing public opinion of their constituents. We found two key factors that explain why members of Congress are so ignorant of public preferences: their staffs’ own beliefs and congressional offices’ relationships with interest groups.

 

Aides usually assumed that the public agreed with their own policy views. If an aide did not personally support acting on climate change, he or she was less likely to think that constituents wanted action. This self-centered bias is common in other areas of life — we all tend to think that other people share our preferences. But we aren’t all charged with understanding what the public wants to ensure democratic representation.

 

Interest groups also played an important role in explaining congressional staffs’ errors. Aides who reported meeting with groups representing big business — like the United States Chamber of Commerce or the American Petroleum Institute — were more likely to get their constituents’ opinions wrong compared with staffers who reported meeting with mass membership groups that represented ordinary Americans, like the Sierra Club or labor unions. The same pattern holds for campaign contributions: The more that offices get support from fossil fuel companies over environmental groups, the more they underestimate state- or district-level support for climate action.

 

Since most congressional offices cannot regularly field public opinion surveys of their constituents, staff members depend heavily on meetings and relationships with interest groups to piece together a picture of what their constituents want. And if offices hear from only deep-pocketed interest groups, they are likely to miss out on the opinions of ordinary Americans.

 

We should not place all the blame on Congress. The public contributes to the problem by not taking the time to express its opinions to politicians or vote. For example, recent polling shows that supporters of tighter gun regulations are much less likely to contact Congress than those who oppose gun control. Without citizen participation, it’s hard to imagine how political staffs can accurately gauge public attitudes in their districts and states.

 

The forthcoming midterm elections are an important opportunity for the public to make its policy choices clear to Congress. But political action can’t end on Election Day. Citizens need to keep writing, calling and meeting with elected officials and their staffs long after the midterms. Otherwise, Congress will continue to misunderstand the public’s preferences. And if Congress doesn’t know what the public wants, it’s hard to imagine it will do a good job representing all Americans.

[barmar]

From Congress Has No Clue What Americans Want by Alexander Hertel-Fernandez, Matto Mildenberger and Leah C. Stokes at NYT:

Seems like this would only matter if Congress actually cared what Americans want. While they may claim to represent their constituents, in reality they mostly represent the special interest groups that support them.

[Winstonm]

....we compared their responses with our best guesses of what the public in their districts or states actually wanted using large-scale public opinion surveys and standard models. Across the board, we found that congressional aides are wildly inaccurate in their perceptions of their constituents’ opinions and preferences.

 

If this information is available to researchers it is certainly available to Congressional aides and elected officials.

[y66]

If this information is available to researchers it is certainly available to Congressional aides and elected officials.

Indubitably. See barmar's post.

[Winstonm]

An interesting observation in a series of tweets by David Roberts:

 

One thing we're seeing now is the 2nd generation of Fox conservatives. The first grew up in a normal world & was pulled into Fox world (like my dad). But they *remember* the normal world & can still pass in it; they know what tone & keywords to use. However ...

 

... the 2nd generation, like this Wohl kid, grew up entirely inside the RW bubble. They don't know how to translate to normal people; they don't know what norms & standards are expected in the normal world. They are *Fox natives*, you might say. I think this helps explain ...

 

... why RW rhetoric & tactics have gotten so crude, stupid, & extreme. Kids like Charlie Kirk grew up in environs where crude, stupid, & extreme were endlessly rewarded. It's how they gained status. Then they wander, blinking, into the normal world & expect the same ***** to work.

 

 

What makes the whole thing even cringier is that, though they claim to disdain the MSM & pop culture, they are visibly & viscerally desperate for mainstream approval. (Just like Trump obsesses over the NYT.) It's like pop artists from the UK trying to crack the US market.

 

 

Kids like Kirk don't *want* to just be "big in Japan," ie, popular in the RW swamp. They want the approval of the elites they bash -- want it so badly you can see the flop sweat. But life in the bubble has left them woefully unequipped. Their lifelong tools no longer work.

[Winstonm]

Well, isn't this interesting.

 

A human rights organization has asked Dutch prosecutors to open a criminal investigation into multi-billion dollar money laundering schemes that they say were aided by Donald Trump’s lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, and his old law firm.

 

The complaint is clearly aimed at examining how much money stolen from a former Soviet satellite ended up benefitting Donald Trump. He is named 16 times in the complaint’s footnotes.

[Winstonm]

Has the president been issued a subpoena?

 

But thanks to some careful reporting by Politico, which I have analyzed from my perspective as a former prosecutor, we might have stumbled upon How Robert Mueller Is Spending His Midterms: secretly litigating against President Donald Trump for the right to throw him in the grand jury.

[johnu]

Has the president been issued a subpoena?

 

Mueller? Mueller? .... Mueller?

 

Al_U_Card - Maybe your prayers have been answered B-)

[Winstonm]

Curious.

 

Axios reports

 

The United Kingdom's Electoral Commission has referred Arron Banks, a British businessman who co-founded one of the campaigns to exit the European Union, for criminal investigation for concealing the source of $10.3 million in campaign funds that were allegedly obtained improperly.

[y66]

From Democrats close campaign by hammering GOP on health care by Peter Sullivan at The Hill:

 

When Trump this week proposed ending birthright citizenship, House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) responded by hammering Republicans on health care. Meanwhile, the House Democrats' campaign arm recently launched another wave of ads targeting GOP lawmakers for their ObamaCare repeal votes.

 

"Remember that we close on health care and corruption and they can close with whatever toxic racist stew they want," Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) tweeted on Tuesday.

 

While Trump is focusing on immigration issues like birthright citizenship and a “caravan” of migrants making its way to the U.S. border, Democrats say they will not be dragged into a debate that distracts from health-care issues leading up to Election Day.

 

“Clearly, Republicans will do absolutely anything to divert attention away from their votes to take away Americans’ health care,” Pelosi said on Tuesday.

 

Democrats have been pounding away at Republicans, highlighting their attempts to dismantle ObamaCare and its protections for people with pre-existing conditions. That messaging is a stark change from previous years when the 2010 health law was a liability for Democrats on the campaign trail.

 

The party can also point to a range of polls showing voters trust them more on health care.

 

A Fox News poll this month found health care is the top issue for voters, with 58 percent saying it is “extremely” important to their vote; within that group, Democrats have a 24-point lead over Republicans.

 

And they’re getting that message across through campaign ads.

 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is now running a new round of ads calling out vulnerable House Republicans for voting in favor of repealing ObamaCare last year.

 

One ad attacking Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.), in the quintessential suburban district being targeted by Democrats, shows a sick child as a voiceover cites Roskam’s repeated votes to nix ObamaCare and its pre-existing condition protections. “Imagine watching him go without life-saving treatment because it’s been denied by your insurance,” the ad says. “That’s what Peter Roskam voted for. Not just once, but over and over again.”

 

Similar DCCC ads are targeting GOP lawmakers like Reps. John Faso (N.Y.) and Rod Blum (Iowa). “Blum voted to let insurance companies gut protections” for pre-existing conditions, one ad says.

 

“I think the focus on health care is a smart thing because Donald Trump’s racist attacks on immigration are getting an enormous amount of play in the media, where health care is not,” said Zac Petkanas, a Democratic strategist. “I think health care is the key message that cuts across our persuadable audience as well as our base.”

Dems doing smart messaging that cuts across their persuadable audience as well as their base? A brief moment of clarity or the start of a juggernaut?

[Winstonm]

From Democrats close campaign by hammering GOP on health care by Peter Sullivan at The Hill:

 

 

Dems doing smart messaging that cuts across their persuadable audience as well as their base? A brief moment of clarity or the start of a juggernaut?

 

It appears the Democratic party has figured out how to avoid playing Dennison's game of bait and switch; now, if only news organizations could learn the same lesson and refrain from amplifying the white noise that comes from this White House we might actually make headway.

[Al_U_Card]

Al_U_Card - Maybe your prayers have been answered B-)

Might just be he is waiting for the election results to get out of the way, unless the Republicans maintain control...

[barmar]

Might just be he is waiting for the election results to get out of the way, unless the Republicans maintain control...

I'm just getting sick of all the discussion about the election. If I didn't skip over most commercials, I'm sure I would be totally sick of all the political commercials.

 

You know how dictionaries pick a "word of the year" every December? I have a feeling "midterms" might be the winner or runner-up on some lists this year.

[Winstonm]

Another non-liberal voice calls out Republicans: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/punish-ethnic-demagoguery-get-more-it/574720/

 

If the GOP succeeds next week at the ballot box, politicians all over the country will conclude that they can advance their careers by vilifying minority groups, frightening voters predisposed to xenophobia, and dividing Americans. No incentive structure is more dangerous to a multiethnic nation. Politicians in other nations marshaling similar tactics have sparked sectarian violence, campaigns of ethnic cleansing, and civil war.

[Winstonm]

You know, if we are stupid enough to allow the unrelenting flood of utter horsesh#t coming from Donald Trump, Fox News, and the Republican party to continue to lead to winning election results, we really don't deserve a democracy or a country.

[awm]

I thought this was an interesting article: How Everything Became the Culture War.

 

My favorite quote: "This is presumably how entire countries turn into Dumb*****istan." Sad but true.

[Winstonm]

I thought this was an interesting article: How Everything Became the Culture War.

 

My favorite quote: "This is presumably how entire countries turn into Dumb*****istan." Sad but true.

 

I liked this quote from the article you posted:

 

Greenhouse gases don’t care whether they’re a wedge issue. Culture-war politics are often a crutch, a look-at-the-shiny-ball distraction, an easy way to shift complicated policy debates from inconvenient facts to emotion and identity.

 

Misdirection - the art of sleight-of-hand artists and con artists.

[johnu]

A secret waiver from the White House hidden for half a year has now seen the light of day:

 

Next-in-line Mueller supervisor got White House ethics waiver in April

 

Solicitor General Noel Francisco has long been considered a likely candidate to oversee Mueller’s Russia probe if Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein is fired or quits. But the 49-year-old conservative lawyer has also been dogged by conflict of interest concerns because he previously worked as a partner at Jones Day, the same law firm that represents Donald Trump’s presidential campaign in the Russia probe.

 

The group also took issue with the waiver appearing to be signed by then-White House counsel Don McGahn, who also worked with Francisco at Jones Day before joining the Trump administration. McGahn had similarly pledged not to participate in matters involving his former law firm.

 

Hmmm, other White House officials seem to have the same ethics as Dennison B-)

[y66]

re: culture wars and Dumb****istan, I thought McCain's real moment of truth came in the 2000 primaries in South Carolina, the birthplace of Lee Atwater, when Bush decided to go negative with great success, and McCain, the self-styled principled independent, fresh off his big win in New Hampshire, had to choose between his principles and slinging mud. He chose mud, lost the primary by 11 points anyway because Bush had sewn up the conservative Christian vote, and never recovered the part of himself that he traded away.

 

How do we climb out of this tarpit? If I were Nancy Pelosi, I would start by inviting kenberg to lunch.

[johnu]

Nigerian military deletes tweet that appears to justify killing protesters with Dennison's words

 

Dennison gives legitimacy to murderous Nigerian military. Hopefully this will not lead to murders by the unofficial Dennison border militiamen who have flooded the Mexican border.

[Winstonm]

re: culture wars and Dumb****istan, I thought McCain's real moment of truth came in the 2000 primaries in South Carolina, the birthplace of Lee Atwater, when Bush decided to go negative with great success, and McCain, the self-styled principled independent, fresh off his big win in New Hampshire, had to choose between his principles and slinging mud. He chose mud, lost the primary by 11 points anyway because Bush had sewn up the conservative Christian vote, and never recovered the part of himself that he traded away.

 

How do we climb out of this tarpit? If I were Nancy Pelosi, I would start by inviting kenberg to lunch.

 

The first lesson we learned about how to survive a tarpit is to let the dinosaurs drown.

[kenberg]

re: culture wars and Dumb****istan, I thought McCain's real moment of truth came in the 2000 primaries in South Carolina, the birthplace of Lee Atwater, when Bush decided to go negative with great success, and McCain, the self-styled principled independent, fresh off his big win in New Hampshire, had to choose between his principles and slinging mud. He chose mud, lost the primary by 11 points anyway because Bush had sewn up the conservative Christian vote, and never recovered the part of himself that he traded away.

 

How do we climb out of this tarpit? If I were Nancy Pelosi, I would start by inviting kenberg to lunch.

The first lesson we learned about how to survive a tarpit is to let the dinosaurs drown.

We have to set a schedule. Free lunch first, then mass drownings.

 

Using the time I saved by not posting, I have read Olive Kitteridge. Not everyone agrees, but I think it is a very good book. Psychologically, it's more than a little brutal. But very good.

 

I realize I am not addressing the theme of the thread. I don't want to come back in. So there is something to be said for not posting at all, but my ears were burning.

 

Best wishes,

Ken

[Winstonm]

This is sick. Yahoo reports:

 

A Philadelphia woman was left shaken after she discovered a hate-filled letter in the mailbox of her new home.

 

Connie Mella recently moved into a new house in the Tacony neighborhood of Philadelphia, Pa., with her mother, her husband, and her 7-year-old daughter, local Philadelphia news station WPVI-TV reports. When she opened the mailbox on Thursday morning, she found a note addressed to “our new neighbor.” But the letter’s contents were anything but welcoming.

 

The note starts off by saying, “if any of you understand English, which is spoken here in this country, then all of you in this house better pay close attention.”

 

“We do not intend to put up with any type of (expletive) (expletive) from your kind of sub-human species.”

 

The author of the note warns: “If you make a lot of noise with your music, your trucks, vans, cars or kids we intend to firebomb your house.”

 

Mella, whose family hails from the Dominican Republic, is an American citizen and has lived in the United States for nearly two decades....

 

I am positive about 2 things. 1) The president's rhetoric makes the letter writer feel safe in his racism. 2) I don't give a flying f$ck why this guy voted, what this person wants, likes, cares about, or believes.

[barmar]

I am positive about 2 things. 1) The president's rhetoric makes the letter writer feel safe in his racism. 2) I don't give a flying f$ck what this person wants, likes, cares about, or believes.

Sounds right.

 

Racism has been around forever, and it didn't go away during Obama's presidency. But something definitely seems to have changed since Trump took office -- it's become far more overt. All the 911 calls on black people just going about their normal lives, for instance. The above letter is more of the same.