Has U.S. Democracy Been Trumped?

[hrothgar]

 

"Some" presumably means the lawyers of Trump and Nixon. I am not sure it is a great accolade for the POTUS to be placed in a group of two with RN.

 

 

Alan Dershowitz has also come up with a few doozies...

[RedSpawn]

According to Wikipedia The Trump Organization has 500+ subsidiaries. Out of that you have identified 4 that have gone into bankruptcy. You should have such a record. And by the way, taking a company into bankruptcy is often a good business strategy; it is not always a sign that the business has failed.

 

Trump has taken a 1 million dollar loan from his father and turned it into a multi-billion dollar enterprise. He has survived and prospered in the NY real estate market, probably the toughest real estate market in the US. So I would assume that he has some business acumen.

 

Trump would probably never apply for the CEO position of your hypothetical company. If he was interested in that business he would probably just buy it.

 

But yes, as I look into your virtual eyes, I am happy to announce that I would gladly consider Trump for the position of CEO.

Trump's wheelhouse is that he is a Brand Marketer. In fact, he is a brand marketing genius.

 

But herein lies the problem:

 

In 2016, America didn't have a brand marketing problem. It didn't need a brand marketing solution.

 

America needed hard-core leaders with the moral courage to make some tough policy choices. America also needed leaders who understand government bureaucracy; how to cut through government fiefdoms and get opposing governmental agencies to share information and communicate; and how to assign performance metrics to agencies and require them to monitor, report, and control said metrics for operating effectiveness.

 

We needed a leader who has a track record of exercising financial discipline which is typically not consistent with being notorious for stiffing your contractors upon completion of services and filing for bankruptcy repeatedly as a glorified tax avoidance scheme.

 

We have a leadership crisis or vacuum in America and Trump is not the best person to fill that void. We need an articulate, forward-thinking, visionary business leader who has a strong grasp of process control improvement and knows how to drive financial results to budget.

[Zelandakh]

Legally there is not a huge difference between what Trump's lawyer states in his name and what DT himself says or writes, other than what he says without legal advice can sometimes be inadmissable. The tweet itself is naturally alone not proof of obstruction but it certainly is evidence that can be used against him.

One more thing on this point that seems relevant. The official WH position is now that the tweet was accurate and DT was personally aware of Flynn lying to the FBI back in January. According to (unconfirmed) reports, Mueller's team is now going through the 18 days between this information being known and Flynn being fired to see if there is an OoJ case to be answered and if so by whom. The recent attacks on Mueller, which give almost an impression of panic within conservative ranks, suggests that there may well be something more to find. The question is whether DT will fire Mueller before he gets the chance and how the American voters will react if he does.

[Winstonm]

This may explain why the hard right is so panicked about Mueller: From WaPo and NBC

 

And Mueller is looking at this, per NBC:

 

Mueller is trying to determine why Flynn remained in his post for 18 days after Trump learned of Yates’ warning, according to two people familiar with the probe. He appears to be interested in whether Trump directed him to lie to senior officials, including Pence, or the FBI, and if so why, the sources said.

 

If Trump knew his national security adviser lied to the FBI in the early days of his administration it would raise serious questions about why Flynn was not fired until Feb. 13, and whether Trump was attempting to obstruct justice when FBI Director James Comey says the president pressured him to drop his investigation into Flynn.

 

Bob Bauer, a former White House counsel, emailed me this about the NBC report:

 

“This is a potentially serious development in this investigation. Should there be evidence that the president directed or encouraged Flynn to lie, he faces an obstruction charge, and the constitutional defenses his supporters have been claiming are irrelevant. Of course, this legal exposure extends to any other officials who were involved in a decision to have Flynn make these false statements.”

[y66]

From Matt Yglesias' post today on the Trump economy:

 

A funny thing happened on Inauguration Day, and the exact same economic conditions that had existed throughout 2016 — steady but nonspectacular job growth, low unemployment, sluggish but real wage growth, record stock market valuations — changed political valences.

 

Suddenly, performance Trump labeled disastrous under Obama was spectacular under Trump.

 

In some ways, even more oddly, while in 2016 pundits saw Trump's political success as a sign that real economic conditions were worse than the statistics in, say, 2017, pundits marvel that Trump could be so unpopular despite the strong economy.

 

A more useful exercise, I think, is to consider the international context:

 

The American stock market is up a lot in 2017, but the German and Japanese markets are up by more.

 

The S&P 500 is at an all-time record, but so are markets in the United Kingdom, Canada, South Korea, Taiwan, and elsewhere.

 

The US unemployment rate is the lowest in more than 17 years, but Japan's is the lowest in more than 20 years. The UK and Germany are the lowest since the 1970s.

 

A particularly telling sign about all of this is that while America's GDP growth has come in above expectations this year, so has eurozone GDP growth — and in fact, the eurozone has grown more rapidly than the United States. Japan is growing more slowly than we are (which is what happens when your working-age population is shrinking), but their GDP numbers are also beating expectations this year.

 

Long story short, whatever the good news about the economy is, it's something quite general. They don't have record-low joblessness in Japan, above-expectations growth in Europe, and stock markets at an all-time high in the UK because Trump ended Obama's war on coal or whatever. The real truth is that there simply isn't that much to explain about Trump and the economy — either how he's impacted or how it's impacting his poll numbers — because there isn't much happening.

[andrei]

Good job guys, keep yourself informed.

 

From Matt Yglesias' post today on the Trump economy:

 

The American stock market is up a lot in 2017, but the German and Japanese markets are up by more.

 

 

Dow Jones: Dec 30, 2016: 19762.6 , today: 24386.03 , up by 23.39% YTD

Nikkei: Dec 30, 2016: 19114.37 , now: 22894.5 , up by 19.77% YTD

DAX 30: Dec 30, 2016: 11481.06, today: 13123.65, up by 14.3% YTD

 

So the German and Japanese markets are up by more, right?

 

 

And just like Fox News, the repetition does not mean accurate facts.

 

LOL, who needs Fox News when we have Vox, NYT, WaPo.

[cherdano]

GREAT JOB ANDREI YOU HAVE FOUND A MISTAKE IN A VOX ARTICLE AND PROVED THAT VOX IS WRONG AND FOX IS RIGHT! YOU WON THE INTERNET!!!

[cherdano]

It's actually interesting to see why Matt Yglesias got this wrong (assuming it is - I haven't checked whether a broader set of numbers would give a different picture). He clearly quoted this from memory, and indeed in beginning of November his claim would have been true.

What has changed? Well, clearly tax reform has become more likely in the US. Which leads us to the shocking conclusion that a tax "reform" that raises taxes on many middle class families but gives a big tax cut to corporations (i.e. gives

a bigger payout to shareholders) increases the value of stocks. Shocking!

(The other event that happened since early November was, of course, the collapse of the German government negotiations. Good job Donald infiltrating the FDP!)

 

The lesson as always - don't make arguments based on short-term stock performance.

[PeterAlan]

Good job guys, keep yourself informed.

 

Dow Jones: Dec 30, 2016: 19762.6 , today: 24386.03 , up by 23.39% YTD

Nikkei: Dec 30, 2016: 19114.37 , now: 22894.5 , up by 19.77% YTD

DAX 30: Dec 30, 2016: 11481.06, today: 13123.65, up by 14.3% YTD

 

So the German and Japanese markets are up by more, right?

 

LOL, who needs Fox News when we have Vox, NYT, WaPo.

Yglesias' article specifically cited the S&P 500 index, not the Dow Jones, which is a much narrower 30-constituent index (as is the DAX 30).

 

S&P 500: Dec 30, 2016: 2238.83, today: 2659.99, up by 18.81% YTD

 

PS: CDAX: Dec 30, 2016: 1042.86, today (close 11 Dec): 1221.58, up by 17.14% YTD Edit: 1222.01 was the 12 Dec opening index; 1221.58 the 11 Dec close

[Zelandakh]

Yglesias' article specifically cited the S&P 500 index, not the Dow Jones, which is a much narrower 30-constituent index (as is the DAX 30).

 

S&P 500: Dec 30, 2016: 2238.83, today: 2659.99, up by 18.81% YTD

 

PS: CDAX: Dec 30, 2016: 1042.86, today (close 11 Dec): 1222.01, up by 17.18% YTD

Could you post numbers for 9th and 10th Dec too Peter? Maybe Vox actually took the time to check the numbers before publishing - a concept likely to be completely alien to a conservative audience - and at the time of writing the DAX was indeed higher?

[barmar]

Could you post numbers for 9th and 10th Dec too Peter?

Trick question? the 9th and 10th were weekends. :)

[jjbrr]

Weather is favoring Moore in Alabama today; it's supposed to dip into the teens.

[Winstonm]

Weather is favoring Moore in Alabama today; it's supposed to dip into the teens.

 

He's on a mission from Gaud.

[andrei]

GREAT JOB ANDREI YOU HAVE FOUND A MISTAKE IN A VOX ARTICLE AND PROVED THAT VOX IS WRONG AND FOX IS RIGHT! YOU WON THE INTERNET!!!

 

What's wrong with the CapsLock lately?

[andrei]

Yglesias' article specifically cited the S&P 500 index, not the Dow Jones, which is a much narrower 30-constituent index (as is the DAX 30).

 

S&P 500: Dec 30, 2016: 2238.83, today: 2659.99, up by 18.81% YTD

 

PS: CDAX: Dec 30, 2016: 1042.86, today (close 11 Dec): 1222.01, up by 17.18% YTD

 

 

The American stock market is up a lot in 2017, but the German and Japanese markets are up by more.

 

The S&P 500 is at an all-time record, but so are markets in the United Kingdom, Canada, South Korea, Taiwan, and elsewhere.

 

He specifically mentioned S&P 500 in relation with UK/Canada/SK/Taiwan.

He specifically mentioned the broader "stock market" in relation with Germany/Japan.

 

 

But he clearly was quoting from memory, so no issue here.

 

I made a mistake in my initial post as I quoted DAX instead of CDAX, but I was quoting from memory too.

And still CDAX is way lower than Dow YTD.

[WellSpyder]

He specifically mentioned S&P 500 in relation with UK/Canada/SK/Taiwan.

He specifically mentioned the broader "stock market" in relation with Germany/Japan.

I think you are missing the basic point that the Dow is much narrower than the S&P, not broader.

[PeterAlan]

Could you post numbers for 9th and 10th Dec too Peter? Maybe Vox actually took the time to check the numbers before publishing - a concept likely to be completely alien to a conservative audience - and at the time of writing the DAX was indeed higher?

There are no numbers for 9th & 10th December (weekend). The (closing) numbers for Friday 8th December were:

 

S&P 500: 2,651.50; +18.43% from close 30 December 2016

 

Dow 30: 24,329.16; +23.11%

 

Nikkei: 22,811.08; +19.34%

 

CDAX: 1,224.36; +17.14%

 

DAX 30: 13,153.70 +14.31%

 

and the numbers for the earlier days in December show similar relative positions.

 

We don't know the exact range of dates for Yglesias' remark, but given (1) the day-to-day variations in the various markets, and (2) the differences between the indices within each market (the Dow 30 and DAX 30 are relatively poor indicators of their complete markets) the conclusion that there's nothing special about the US market seems in order.

 

Incidentally, the closing Nikkei (NB: the usual Nikkei 225 index) figure for 11th December was 22,938.73 (+20.01%); I assume Andrei's figure for "now" was at some time during the 12 December trading day in Japan.

[Winstonm]

The bull market is most likely explained by the quantitative easing that occurred to stabilize the banking industry, and the fact that the Fed has not reversed those purchases as of yet. Once the threat ended, all those excess reserves had to go somewhere.

[Al_U_Card]

And who reserves the (Federal) Reserve (while watching the watchers)?

 

The banks get the QE, so they have more "reserves" so that they can loan out even more.....look out leverage!

[y66]

As of 10:24 PM EST, with 89 percent of votes tallied, the NYT has Jones leading by 0.8 percent, projected to win by 2.2 percent and >95% confidence.

 

AP just called it for Jones.

[hrothgar]

As of 10:24 PM EST, with 89 percent of votes tallied, the NYT has Jones leading by 0.8 percent, projected to win by 2.2 percent and >95% confidence.

 

AP just called it for Jones.

 

w00t!

 

Things could get really interesting if Cotton end up going to the CIA...

[Winstonm]

Jones wins!

 

Note to Roy Moore: Tonight, God is a Democrat - and a woman!

[hrothgar]

Richard Shelby deserves a lot of credit for putting country ahead of... well, can't say "party". Let's leave it at "Whatever toxic pile of sludge Trump/Bannon/Moore represent"

[jjbrr]

I'm happy to admit I'm wrong. I thought Alabama would, without question, ***** this up. Congratulations to reason, sense, and morality.

[shyams]

 

Assuming the above graph is a true representation of voting pattern, I fear the whole political landscape some US states continues to polarise itself along racial lines. I don't know if this can be classed as a victory or a defeat.

 

IMO, the "defeated" may come back and strike harder next time.