Has U.S. Democracy Been Trumped?

[kenberg]

The race may become closer and more interesting if Clinton is indicted. At first the thinking was this would force her out of the race but now perhaps not. Can She still count on the die hard 30-40% vote for Hillary no matter what.....

 

 

I think last time i checked 538 had her as a 3 or 4-1 favorite.

 

You inspired me to go to 538 an see how they rate Clinton/s chance of winning Maryland. They rate it as 99.8%.

I guess I can take a nap, wake me when it's over.

[PassedOut]

The NY Times has this piece today: Inside the Six Weeks Donald Trump Was a Nonstop ‘Birther’

 

Joseph Farah, a 61-year-old author, had long labored on the fringes of political life, publishing a six-part series claiming that soybeans caused homosexuality and fretting that “cultural Marxists” were plotting to destroy the country.

 

But in early 2011, he received the first of several calls from a Manhattan real estate developer who wanted to take one of his theories mainstream.

 

That developer, Donald J. Trump, told Mr. Farah that he shared his suspicion that President Obama might have been born outside the United States and that he was looking for a way to prove it.

 

“What can we do to get to the bottom of this?” Mr. Trump asked him. “What can we do to turn the tide?”

 

Mr. Farah recalled that Mr. Trump even proposed dispatching private investigators to Hawaii, Mr. Obama’s birthplace, to resolve the debate.

 

Mr. Trump’s eagerness to embrace the so-called birther idea — long debunked, and until then confined to right-wing conspiracy theorists — foreshadowed how, just five years later, Mr. Trump would bedevil his rivals in the Republican presidential primary race and upend the political system.

 

In the birther movement, Mr. Trump recognized an opportunity to connect with the electorate over an issue many considered taboo: the discomfort, in some quarters of American society, with the election of the nation’s first black president. He harnessed it for political gain, beginning his connection with the largely white Republican base that, in his 2016 campaign, helped clinch his party’s nomination.

 

“The appeal of the birther issue was, ‘I’m going to take this guy on, and I’m going to beat him,’” said Sam Nunberg, who was one of Mr. Trump’s advisers during that period but was fired from his current campaign. “It was a great niche and wedge issue.”

Seems that Trump -- from long experience taking people for suckers -- calculates that there are enough suckers in the USA to propel him to the White House. That might be funny if he hadn't already been proved right about that with republican voters.

 

It's interesting to me that the people who consider Trump to be the lesser of two evils never mention competence. I think that's because everyone knows that Clinton -- despite her faults -- is exceptionally knowledgeable and competent in government. And, clearly, Trump is neither of those.

[Al_U_Card]

The NY Times has this piece today: Inside the Six Weeks Donald Trump Was a Nonstop ‘Birther’

 

 

Seems that Trump -- from long experience taking people for suckers -- calculates that there are enough suckers in the USA to propel him to the White House. That might be funny if he hadn't already been proved right about that with republican voters.

 

It's interesting to me that the people who consider Trump to be the lesser of two evils never mention competence. I think that's because everyone knows that Clinton -- despite her faults -- is exceptionally knowledgeable and competent in government. And, clearly, Trump is neither of those.

The appeal comes from the dissatisfaction with that kind of competence. A sea-change, come what may.

[kenberg]

Actually, Trump was born in Australia. It would solve a lot of problems. Maybe not for the Australians.

[PassedOut]

The appeal comes from the dissatisfaction with that kind of competence.

I've talked with people who actually believe that a beginner might beat a chess master by confounding the master with unexpected moves.

[mike777]

Just a guess here but perhaps the thinking is as follows:

Congress, Courts, Mexico will block some stuff such as building the wall and kicking all the Muslims/mexicans out or stopping them at the border.

 

However trump may get to pack the Supreme Court with the help of republicans

raise some taxes and tariffs and create some trade wars/ reduce our oversees military reach with the help of the democrats and a few republicans

 

Abortion issues as always will go back and forth

 

Congress, the courts, the executive level bureaucracy along with a wily political VP will make most of the lesser decisions. People will fall in love with the idea of a divided, limited government which controls Trump. :)

[Al_U_Card]

I've talked with people who actually believe that a beginner might beat a chess master by confounding the master with unexpected moves.

You might want to move in different circles...lol Voter appeal.

[Al_U_Card]

Just a guess here but perhaps the thinking is as follows:

Congress, Courts, Mexico will block some stuff such as building the wall and kicking all the Muslims/mexicans out or stopping them at the border.

 

However trump may get to pack the Supreme Court with the help of republicans

raise some taxes and tariffs and create some trade wars/ reduce our oversees military reach with the help of the democrats and a few republicans

 

Abortion issues as always will go back and forth

 

Congress, the courts, the executive level bureaucracy along with a wily political VP will make most of the lesser decisions. People will fall in love with the idea of a divided, limited government which controls Trump. :)

And a fairly lucid guess, at that. But still just a guess ;)

[kenberg]

Just a guess here but perhaps the thinking is as follows:

Congress, Courts, Mexico will block some stuff such as building the wall and kicking all the Muslims/mexicans out or stopping them at the border.

 

However trump may get to pack the Supreme Court with the help of republicans

raise some taxes and tariffs and create some trade wars/ reduce our oversees military reach with the help of the democrats and a few republicans

 

Abortion issues as always will go back and forth

 

Congress, the courts, the executive level bureaucracy along with a wily political VP will make most of the lesser decisions. People will fall in love with the idea of a divided, limited government which controls Trump. :)

 

I am not so sure that Rs would be any more enthusiastic than Ds about packing the Supreme Court with people who want to suppress a free press. It's hardly news to observe that Trump is not a conservative in any recognizable sense.

 

Anyway, I hope we never find out just what Trump actually will do as pres. I think all of us, liberal and conservative, would come to regret such an experience.

 

 

If we use this turmoil to address where we really wish the country to be headed, some good could come of all this. Imagine if you can....

[mike777]

As far as enthusiasm for suppressing a free press, the Bill of Rights has never been very popular among the majority of voters.

The Bill of Rights acts as a brake or block on the power of the majority and the power of the Federal government.

[barmar]

If trump gets elected, I can kind of imagine a "morning after" reaction like that of the Brexit, where the people who voted for him wake up and realize that they'd made a horrible mistake.

 

Note that the Brexit vote was not actually binding, although it doesn't seem like it will be ignored. But a presidential election is.

[shyams]

If trump gets elected, I can kind of imagine a "morning after" reaction like that of the Brexit, where the people who voted for him wake up and realize that they'd made a horrible mistake.

 

Note that the Brexit vote was not actually binding, although it doesn't seem like it will be ignored. But a presidential election is.

Technically, even a Presidential "election" is not binding. It is not the people but the Electoral College who actually elect the President. If Trump is "elected", perhaps you will have a large scale electoral college defection that will stop him actually becoming President.

[mike777]

Technically, even a Presidential "election" is not binding. It is not the people but the Electoral College who actually elect the President. If Trump is "elected", perhaps you will have a large scale electoral college defection that will stop him actually becoming President.

 

 

Now that is a novel idea. The electoral college can vote and elect whoever they want even someone who is not running. Now who should we get to appoint the members of the college?

[WellSpyder]

If trump gets elected, I can kind of imagine a "morning after" reaction like that of the Brexit, where the people who voted for him wake up and realize that they'd made a horrible mistake.

I can certainly imagine some mourning after...

[shyams]

Now that is a novel idea. The electoral college can vote and elect whoever they want even someone who is not running. Now who should we get to appoint the members of the college?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States) -- How the electoral college works. And who gets to appoint the members (it is not you the people!!)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector -- The concept of an electoral college member NOT voting for the candidate they were pledged to originally.

[billw55]

If trump gets elected, I can kind of imagine a "morning after" reaction like that of the Brexit, where the people who voted for him wake up and realize that they'd made a horrible mistake.

I think you are giving them far too much credit.

 

Also, are there really a lot of "leave" voters regretting it? I see an astonishing media churn about how awful it supposedly is, but that doesn't mean the voters think so too.

 

 

[mike777]

Hillary not indicted.

 

538 has it 342-195 270 needed to win.

 

 

AZ only swing state Republicans are winning.

[PassedOut]

Hillary not indicted.

I think that everyone paying attention knew that no indictment was forthcoming. Poor judgment is not a crime, but it's certainly not a positive characteristic either.

 

On the other hand, her opponent is in court for blatantly ripping off the gullible -- which seems to be his lifelong pursuit.

 

Not a particularly happy choice, but Clinton could turn out to be a good president. I don't see any chance of that happening with Trump. And, clearly, most folks agree with me on that.

[kenberg]

I think that everyone paying attention knew that no indictment was forthcoming. Poor judgment is not a crime, but it's certainly not a positive characteristic either.

 

On the other hand, her opponent is in court for blatantly ripping off the gullible -- which seems to be his lifelong pursuit.

 

Not a particularly happy choice, but Clinton could turn out to be a good president. I don't see any chance of that happening with Trump. And, clearly, most folks agree with me on that.

 

I very much agree. With all of it. The thought that Trump could represent the USA at a meeting of heads of state is appalling.

[mike777]

I think that everyone paying attention knew that no indictment was forthcoming. Poor judgment is not a crime, but it's certainly not a positive characteristic either.

 

On the other hand, her opponent is in court for blatantly ripping off the gullible -- which seems to be his lifelong pursuit.

 

Not a particularly happy choice, but Clinton could turn out to be a good president. I don't see any chance of that happening with Trump. And, clearly, most folks agree with me on that.

 

OK

 

 

I was one of those that did not know whether she met the standards of criminal activity regarding:

1) strict liability offense or

2) standard of recklessness

 

Clearly today the FBI has said no she did NOT meet those legal standards of measurement of criminal activity.

 

The FBI did say she was extremely careless but that does not mean criminally reckless or that she committed a strictly liable criminal offense.

 

As I mentioned as of this morning 538 shows a huge lead for Clinton.

[kenberg]

I did not think it was clear how it would go. But I rarely have any feel for such things. I did not know whether McDonnell would be convicted, I did not know his conviction would be overturned. In the case of HC, I did not know exactly what she did and I did not know exactly what the law says. The law often surprises me one way or the other.

 

I don't think this was a frivolous case. And I am skeptical of any claim that she did not know it was wrong. She just did it anyway. E-mail for God's sake. I wish she could just have normal human failings such as her husband did. Something with cigars and 23 year olds. I wish her well.

 

Anyway, I am glad this has come to an end. As mentioned, I plan to vote for Hillary. I do wish the Clintons would make it a little more comfortable to do so. Fortunately(?) the Republicans are making it very easy to do so.

 

I do think it is possible that HC could surprise us, or surprise me anyway, and be a very good president.

[mike777]

I can understand how you guys word your vote for Hillary. It reminds me of something I heard a few days ago. This guy said he believed Hillary was as good as she was going to be right now but thought if anyone could surprise us on the upside and improve it was Trump. :)

 

 

In any case it would be a huge shocker for Trump to be able to swing 80 electoral votes between early July and November

----------------------------

 

 

I note we have 4 options this cycle.

Hillary

The Donald

Third party

stay home.

 

 

We can make an educated guess that roughly 30-40% of eligible voters are going to stay home no matter what.

30% will vote for HIllary no matter what

30% will vote for the Donald no matter what.

That leaves a slender % of total eligible voters up for grabs

[mike777]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States) -- How the electoral college works. And who gets to appoint the members (it is not you the people!!)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector -- The concept of an electoral college member NOT voting for the candidate they were pledged to originally.

 

 

Boris Johnson was born in NYC and as such is eligible to be PResident of the USA. He recently declined running for PM of the UK so he has plenty of free time.

 

 

Will the College turn to him? Coincidence? English plot?!

[PassedOut]

It reminds me of something I heard a few days ago. This guy said he believed Hillary was as good as she was going to be right now but thought if anyone could surprise us on the upside and improve it was Trump. :)

This argument boils down to "Trump is so hopeless now that he has a lot of room to get better." I don't consider that a qualification for the presidency. He could improve quite a bit and still be an embarrassment to the country. More likely, if Trump were elected he'd consider it a mandate for incompetence and bluster and double down on both.

[Cyberyeti]

Boris Johnson was born in NYC and as such is eligible to be PResident of the USA. He recently declined running for PM of the UK so he has plenty of free time.

 

 

Will the College turn to him? Coincidence? English plot?!

 

Except you also have to have lived in the US for 14 years, Boris managed about 3 months.