kenberg Posted March 1, 2016 Report Share Posted March 1, 2016 A couple of quick questions about data. 1. On the Diane Rehm show this morning the guests were discussing the economy, particularity how the recovery is uneven across the nation. One of the guests stated that 1 out of 7 prime age men is neither working nor going to school. "Prime age" was defined as 25-54, I don't think "not working" was defined. I looked around a bit on the web for the source and for clarification. Anyone know anything about this number? At first thought it seemed high for "prime age men", translating into 14+ percent. But then I started thinking and I suppose it could be right. It probably depends a lot on what "not working" means. 25 or so hours a week of doing this and that, here and there, for a bit of pay is working or not working? 2. It is often noted, or claimed, that Trump and Sanders are tapping into "the same anger". Not really, I think. I was driving to a hospital to visit a friend so I had time to listen to the dr show and to think a bit. Trump is getting a lot of support from people who have modest skills and poor or unsteady jobs. You don't much hear of that group going for Sanders. Visiting my friend. I suggested that Sanders' support from the young is more the young idealist vote rather than the young economically struggling vote. He, a Sanders supporter, agreed. [Of course I had him in a weakened condition, and we soon went back to the more congenial subject of mathematics.]Are there figures to support or refute my thought that it is more the young idealist rather than the young and struggling who is in the Sanders camp? There must be, there are figures for everything. In SC, apparently HC got 95% of the over 65 African-American vote. The age of the individual is over, we are all demographic data points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barmar Posted March 1, 2016 Report Share Posted March 1, 2016 The age of the individual is over, we are all demographic data points.I think that's quite a cynical way to view it. Of course we're all individuals, but no one can mount a campaign that tries to address each individual's needs. If you're going to make a speech or put out an ad, you're communicating to large groups, so you need to assess the demographics of the people you're trying to reach. I think Trump's support comes mostly from people who are scared, and he feeds that fear. They're scared of terrorists trying to kill us, they're scared of immigrants coming to take our jobs, and they're also worried about cultural changes. Sanders does seem to get much of his support from the young idealists. You almost have to be like that to favor the major changes his democratic socialist plan would entail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhantomSac Posted March 1, 2016 Report Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think Trump's support comes mostly from people who are scared, and he feeds that fear. They're scared of terrorists trying to kill us, they're scared of immigrants coming to take our jobs, and they're also worried about cultural changes. True, racism comes from irrational fear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted March 2, 2016 Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 True, racism comes from irrational fear. It usually comes from almost but not totally irrational fear. Often of people who've been treated so badly, they can't live the normal lives we'd like them to because we won't let them, then they get caned for not doing so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted March 2, 2016 Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 I think that's quite a cynical way to view it. Of course we're all individuals, but no one can mount a campaign that tries to address each individual's needs. If you're going to make a speech or put out an ad, you're communicating to large groups, so you need to assess the demographics of the people you're trying to reach. I think Trump's support comes mostly from people who are scared, and he feeds that fear. They're scared of terrorists trying to kill us, they're scared of immigrants coming to take our jobs, and they're also worried about cultural changes. Sanders does seem to get much of his support from the young idealists. You almost have to be like that to favor the major changes his democratic socialist plan would entail. I suppose that it is a bit cynical. But I envision a candidate appearing before the AARP, pulling his speech out of his briefcase, and going into a panic when he sees that it is his speech for the college campus. Who knows, I might like it. [becky signed me up for the AARP, I am not a joiner.] Anyway, I must soon screw up my courage and turn on the news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted March 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 I suppose that it is a bit cynical. But I envision a candidate appearing before the AARP, pulling his speech out of his briefcase, and going into a panic when he sees that it is his speech for the college campus. Who knows, I might like it. [becky signed me up for the AARP, I am not a joiner.] Anyway, I must soon screw up my courage and turn on the news. I see that Oklahoma and Texas tied for "We're As Evangelical as Iowa" award. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted March 2, 2016 Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 I see that Oklahoma and Texas tied for "We're As Evangelical as Iowa" award. But as of this moment, 10:38 EST, Trump is in third place in Minnesota.. The women are strong, the men are good looking, all the children are above average and we don't vote for Trump. Now I have to hope this holds! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjbrr Posted March 2, 2016 Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 The weirdest thing just happened. I got home from work to discover a (personalized and rather lengthy) handwritten note stuck to my door along with a business card that had more handwritten notes on it. Strangely, it says that it's the US Census, and they're sorry they missed me, and they'd like for me to call them so I can schedule a time for them to come back for a visit. Apologies for my ignorance, but this must be a scam, right? A rather elaborate one since they seem to know my name. To add to the shadiness of it, the note says "Your address selected at random to represent over 1000 homes..." It is such an overwhelming honor to be selected to be one of dozens in this sample out of 323,000,000! Are you telling me that in the year 2016, in the greatest country in the history of mankind, having spent $600 billion on military the previous year, and in the height of google, social media, and the NSA, the US Census still collects data by going door-to-door and leaving hand written notes to people who don't answer? Do they realize you can just offer to tell people which Disney Princess they are after filling out the questionnaire and they practically trip over themselves to fill out answers for anything at all online? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted March 2, 2016 Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 Are you telling me that in the year 2016, in the greatest country in the history of mankind, having spent $600 billion on military the previous year, and in the height of google, social media, and the NSA, the US Census still collects data by going door-to-door and leaving hand written notes to people who don't answer? Actually no. You can read about the way the ACS (ongoing census) survey is conducted here. It also provides a freephone number so that you can check on the legitimacy of any contact you receive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted March 2, 2016 Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 Are you telling me that in the year 2016, in the greatest country in the history of mankind, having spent $600 billion on military the previous year, and in the height of google, social media, and the NSA, the US Census still collects data by going door-to-door and leaving hand written notes to people who don't answer? Oh yes, absolutely. It works like that in Germany and the UK also. In Denmark and NL they have moved to more modern systems. My dad told me a similar story from 1940something's Denmark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted March 2, 2016 Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 Actually no. You can read about the way the ACS (ongoing census) survey is conducted here. It also provides a freephone number so that you can check on the legitimacy of any contact you receive. A very useful article! The answer to "must be a scam" is still not clear. The article says that home visits are typically done in years ending in 0, but typically doesn't mean always, so this could be legit. I suppose that it is, since any plan to return after giving the intended mark time to check you out and call the cops seems pretty daring even for a con man. I like the fact that a human actually comes to interview another human. Rather quaint. Sometime back I was talking with a human (I am pretty sure she was human) over the phone about some medical stuff and at the close of the conversation I commented on how pleasant it was to be speaking to a person. This was after a few less pleasant experiences speaking with robots, where at one point I was shouting into the phone "Will you please connect me to a human, I want to speak to a human." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted March 2, 2016 Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 In a speech last night Trump explained that he usually wins and never comes in worse than second, while Rubio never wins anything. This morning I see that Rubio won in Minnesota and Trump came in third. Clearly Minnesota has a lot to be concerned about if Trump becomes president. Perhaps a realignment with Canada should be considered? When it is 40 below zero in Winnipeg it is typically only 30 below in Minneapolis so there could be an advantage for Canadians seeking warmer weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted March 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 In a speech last night Trump explained that he usually wins and never comes in worse than second, while Rubio never wins anything. This morning I see that Rubio won in Minnesota and Trump came in third. Clearly Minnesota has a lot to be concerned about if Trump becomes president. Perhaps a realignment with Canada should be considered? When it is 40 below zero in Winnipeg it is typically only 30 below in Minneapolis so there could be an advantage for Canadians seeking warmer weather. Maybe he could build a wall to keep out the cold? After all, I never heard any quotes about give me your tired, your cold... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhantomSac Posted March 2, 2016 Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 In a speech last night Trump explained that he usually wins and never comes in worse than second, while Rubio never wins anything. This morning I see that Rubio won in Minnesota and Trump came in third. Clearly Minnesota has a lot to be concerned about if Trump becomes president. Perhaps a realignment with Canada should be considered? When it is 40 below zero in Winnipeg it is typically only 30 below in Minneapolis so there could be an advantage for Canadians seeking warmer weather. Won't help, president TRUMP will invade Canada and make it part of the states obv. #Winning 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onoway Posted March 2, 2016 Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 According to Google, "moving to Canada" is now trending..we have got a lot of good people over the years who freaked out about what was going on in the US and abandoned ship, not just the ones we got during Viet Nam. Perhaps that part of the reason the what's happening now IS happening now, too many people who have a different vision of a good place to live came here and left too few in the US to fight the good fight... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onoway Posted March 2, 2016 Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 Agree, a Trump candidacy is obviously, blatantly hopeless in a general election. The only thing his followers can accomplish is electing Clinton. But they are too foolish to know this. If you scroll back earlier in the thread it was generally agreed that Trump wouldn't get near sniffing range of being the candidate and if he did he didn't really want to be President anyway, he was just messing about. Neither of those things seem to be holding up very well... Although he may well change his mind about being President if he ever actually got into the Oval Office..it's a bit inconceivable to me that he doesn't want to be able to say he did. Sort of a more grandiose thing than making Clinton come to his wedding. It's all about ego and power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PassedOut Posted March 3, 2016 Report Share Posted March 3, 2016 If you scroll back earlier in the thread it was generally agreed that Trump wouldn't get near sniffing range of being the candidate and if he did he didn't really want to be President anyway, he was just messing about. Neither of those things seem to be holding up very well... Although he may well change his mind about being President if he ever actually got into the Oval Office..it's a bit inconceivable to me that he doesn't want to be able to say he did. Sort of a more grandiose thing than making Clinton come to his wedding. It's all about ego and power.If it turns out to be Trump vs. Clinton, I wouldn't be surprised to see a fairly negative campaign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted March 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2016 If it turns out to be Trump vs. Clinton, I wouldn't be surprised to see a fairly negative campaign. World class understatement - well done! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted March 3, 2016 Report Share Posted March 3, 2016 So Romney will be making a statement today. My pre-speech opinion: The fundamental issue for any Republican is to choose: "I will support the nominee if that nominee is Donald Trump" or "I will not support the nominee if that nominee is Donald Trump". Any speech that is in any way ambiguous on this point is hot air, and I have no doubt it will be seen as hot air by voters whether those voters are pro- or anti- Trump. There is no point whatsoever in any Republican giving a speech about Donald Trump if s/he is not willing to be totally clear about this. Paul Ryan criticized Trump for waffling about the Klan. Big deal. That is very easy, very predictable, hardly a tough call. Will he support Trump if he is the nominee? That's the issue. Absolute clarity is needed here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted March 3, 2016 Report Share Posted March 3, 2016 Will he support Trump if he is the nominee? That's the issue. Absolute clarity is needed here.Looks like he is not going to leave any doubt on the issue. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted March 3, 2016 Report Share Posted March 3, 2016 Looks like he is not going to leave any doubt on the issue. ;)Actually, it may fall short. I just saw a similar story in the Post (I guess it was too late for the print edition I get). He will call Trump a phony and say that he is playing the American people for suckers. True enough, he is. But I hope Romney will make it clear whether he will or will not support the nominee, if it should be Trump. You might think that such a conclusion is clear but in politics it isn't. We keep reading of panic, of conference calls, of get togethers. What we see much less of are prominent Republicans standing on their own saying "A Trump presidency would be a disaster for this country and if he should win the Republican nomination I will not support his campaign, I will advocate that no one should vote for him even if they cannot vote for Clinton, and it will be my hope that he loses the general election". Republicans are in a tough spot, I have some sympathy. Honest, I do. But there comes a time, usually an unwelcome time, when a choice must be made. This is that time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y66 Posted March 3, 2016 Report Share Posted March 3, 2016 According to Google, "moving to Canada" is now trending..we have got a lot of good people over the years who freaked out about what was going on in the US and abandoned ship, not just the ones we got during Viet Nam. Perhaps that part of the reason the what's happening now IS happening now, too many people who have a different vision of a good place to live came here and left too few in the US to fight the good fight...There are, of course, other advantages of moving to the Pacific Northwest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjbrr Posted March 3, 2016 Report Share Posted March 3, 2016 Census worker left another note last night. Not sure how it isn't a scam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted March 3, 2016 Report Share Posted March 3, 2016 So Romney will be making a statement today. My pre-speech opinion: The fundamental issue for any Republican is to choose: "I will support the nominee if that nominee is Donald Trump" or "I will not support the nominee if that nominee is Donald Trump". Any speech that is in any way ambiguous on this point is hot air, and I have no doubt it will be seen as hot air by voters whether those voters are pro- or anti- Trump. There is no point whatsoever in any Republican giving a speech about Donald Trump if s/he is not willing to be totally clear about this. Paul Ryan criticized Trump for waffling about the Klan. Big deal. That is very easy, very predictable, hardly a tough call. Will he support Trump if he is the nominee? That's the issue. Absolute clarity is needed here. I would ask Romney a different question. "If you were the nominee, would you be soliciting and touting Trump's endorsement?" Oh wait! http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2584808?src=ilaw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted March 3, 2016 Report Share Posted March 3, 2016 Census worker left another note last night. Not sure how it isn't a scam.Have you tried ringing the freephone number yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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