thepossum Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 According to betting markets, Trump is currently 80% likely to be reelected. Betting markets rarely get it wrong so late in the play --- so it looks like Trump is your President for 4 more years. Which begs the question why Trump was around $3 just a few hours ago :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 Here's an interesting anomaly. The AP has apparently called Virginia for Biden while he is officially 5.7% behind. I am not sure I have ever seen that before in an election! Edit: it is 5.9% now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted November 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 But what I find curious is that it tends to be supporters of competing tendencies that like to make most rules and impose most authority over all our lives. Thats what confuses me The authoritarian personality is not based on political views. The term as used comes from social sciences to describe a type of personality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 Jesus ***** ChristJust woke upTrying to understand what's what Looks like the best case scenario is "Biden wins Arizona and we're living in the "contested Pennsylvania Hellscape"? with a genuine chance of Trump "winning"? Four more years of Trump will destroy the Republic. Two more years of a Biden presidency with a Republican Senate will be horrific in its own right I am crying for my country Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 Biden just needs Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and a congressional district. No panic - he is still right on course even if he loses Pennsylvania. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 Couple bright lights at least 1. Georgia is swinging back into the Biden camp (the Atlanta votes are coming in very very strong)2. Biden looks to have flipped Arizona If Biden wins GA, its all but over With Biden winning AZ, he has a viable (even likely) path even if he loses PAI'm going to use this as a sign to crawl back to bed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 According to betting markets, Trump is currently 80% likely to be reelected.Which begs the question why Trump was around $3 just a few hours ago :)An interesting question; so I looked at the timeline. When you made your initial post of $2.88, the voting process was still under way and no new information other than the opinion polls was available. In the hours that followed, the opinion-poll based estimation was being replaced by much better information in terms of actual count (often with a county-by-county level granularity). This should have moved the price to a more accurate estimate of likely final outcome. However, this election looks like an unusual one. The 80% probability I quoted some three hours ago has now whittled away. I had a quick look and prices now indicate Trump to have a 56% chance. It also looks like a messy election outcome, in that the election could remain undecided for another 24 - 48 hours (or even longer). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 I had a quick look and prices now indicate Trump to have a 56% chance. It also looks like a messy election outcome, in that the election could remain undecided for another 24 - 48 hours (or even longer).A 56% chance for dodgy Donald at this stage is just not based on any sort of mathematical reality. If I were a betting man I would happily take those odds on a Biden win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 The models now have Biden up in all of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and even Pennsylvania. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 Oh dear, this is a sad moment for America and frankly also for the entire world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 They have not been called yet but it looks like Cunningham and Gideon have lost their Senate races in North Carolina and Maine, meaning that there is essentially no valid path left for Democrats to take control of the Senate. So liberals should not get their hopes up - even if Biden does win the WH, the chance of any sort of radical agenda is close to nil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilowsky Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 45% of Americans do not categorically deny the existence of ghosts or demons.None of what has happened in the past 24 hours surprises me at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 Biden now just 11000 behind in Wisconsin with the last absentee ballots being counted. Looks like he has it I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 My biggest question right now is "In what way were some many polls so very wrong?" What are we talking about here? Voter suppression? Ridiculous levels of Republican turn out? I am seriously concerned that this election is being stolen. If Trump does get away with stealing this, then we are all ***** doomed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 Ha ha, this is the weirdest unfolding of an election result ever. My favourite betting odds now indicate a 60% probability of a Biden victory. The odds have been swinging over the past few hours like something I have never seen before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 I am literally crying right now Last time I recall this happening was back in 1997 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 My biggest question right now is "In what way were some many polls so very wrong?" What are we talking about here? Voter suppression? Ridiculous levels of Republican turn out? I am seriously concerned that this election is being stolen. If Trump does get away with stealing this, then we are all ***** doomed.Totally agree with you. The results make little sense given all the opinion polls so far; especially as forecasting models were strengthened based on learning from 2016 cycle. I am no fan of conspiracy theories but this one does not sound like a fair fight. "Stealing" has begun to sound very plausible! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyberyeti Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 Totally agree with you. The results make little sense given all the opinion polls so far; especially as forecasting models were strengthened based on learning from 2016 cycle. I am no fan of conspiracy theories but this one does not sound like a fair fight. "Stealing" has begun to sound very plausible! Possibly some people who would have voted Biden deciding they weren't going to queue for 3 or 4 hours to vote when many Trump voters can get it done in munutes ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 By the way, the BBC analysts presented a scenario late last night --- after all but the current states had been called --- in which the Electoral College votes tied at 269:269. Imagine the chaos that would ensue if this were to happen and the House of Representatives had the final say! We could then have Biden as President and Pence as Vice President. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 Everyone feeling more comfortable now? :) By the way, the BBC analysts presented a scenario late last night --- after all but the current states had been called --- in which the Electoral College votes tied at 269:269.I mentioned that possibility in my preview crib notes post a few days ago. It was quite predictable as a possible, if unlikely, scenario from looking at the polling data coming out of the states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 My biggest question right now is "In what way were some many polls so very wrong?" What are we talking about here? Voter suppression? Ridiculous levels of Republican turn out? I am seriously concerned that this election is being stolen. If Trump does get away with stealing this, then we are all ***** doomed. Can I offer an easier explanation? Loads of voters were enthusiastic to vote for Trump. (We also had loads of voters who were enthusiastic to vote for Biden.) The thing about polls is that their response rates are ridiculously low - maybe 2-3%? It's a miracle that they are as accurate as they are, especially in the US were support for a party comes is clustered more than any other country I am familiar with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shyams Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 Everyone feeling more comfortable now? :):) My favourite betting odds now indicate a 60% probability of a Biden victoryBetting odds currently stand at 70% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 Everyone feeling more comfortable now? :)I'll only relax after Wisconsin has been called for Biden, the Supreme Court rejects all challenges, and the moderators lock this thread so we can start a new US politics thread on life after. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 What it looks like is that the samples did not contain a large enough sample of non-Mexican latinos in Florida to accurately model that demographic. The other area where there appears to have been a major polling error is in the Mid West rust belt. That error is perhaps less than it currently appears because the outstanding ballots are absentee that will break very strongly blue but seems to be consistent across the region that there is a 7-8% shift. Time will tell where that came from but it would not surprise me if fears over fracking were a considerable part of it. Perhaps that was a late shift that the pollsters missed, or perhaps voters did not want to admit that they were supporting energy companies over the environment, or perhaps there is a fundamental problem with the methodology used to construct the sample universe. Whatever the reason, the polling error has at least made for an exciting night. And if dodgy Donald gets his orange jump suit at the end of it, everything is good, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted November 4, 2020 Report Share Posted November 4, 2020 And if dodgy Donald gets his orange jump suit at the end of it, everything is good, right? Hardly 1. A Republican senate is going to be able to neuter a Biden Presidency and they will actively conspire to see this country fail, just as they did in 2008+ 2. Trump is an incomprehensibly bad President and somehow he has a serious chance of winning. Imagine what a more competent fascist will do 3. The US desperately needs electoral reform and voting rights and none of this is going to happen 4. Even if Trump goes down, if it takes a widespread violence to do so its highly problematic 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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