Your lead again

[Jinksy]

[hv=pc=n&e=sj8hqt2dkq87cqj82&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=1np2nppp]133|200[/hv]

 

Your lead at either form of scoring?

 

Just about anything seems as though it could be best at either.

[frisbee]

Partner is unlikely to have more than one useful card in this auction, so leading ♠s can do no good (unless the Kxx is in dummy and Partner holds AQxxx ... not something that I would play for, unless I could peek). Hope that Partner has a useful card in a minor; a small ♣ has a slight advantage, because Partner's Ten will be useful.

[rmnka447]

What can you surmise from the bidding?

 

Responder has not used Stayman, so likely doesn't have a 4 card major. That places potential major length in both partner's and declarer's hands. Any major holding partner has lies underneath declarer's hand. So a major lead may help declarer.

 

Give them, say, 24 HCP maximum and partner doesn't have more than about 5 HCP. Even if partner has major length, the scarcity of points in his/her hand makes it unlikely an entry exists to cash long suit tricks even if we set the suit up.

 

The opponents have had an invitational auction and stopped short of game. That usually calls for a passive lead as their assets aren't in excess of what they need to make the contract.

 

It all points to a minor lead. Which gives away the least?

 

It seems like ♣ provide more useful cards that partner might hold.

 

So, I'm leading ♣ 2.

[BillPatch]

Bird-Anthias extensively covered leads from the auction 1NT-3NT and on a similar 10 point hand low from the heart tripleton was best, Jx a close second. On that hand hearts were Qxx. QTx is normally not as good a lead, so I am going to guess the Jx this time, with heart T second. The auction 1NT-2NT is less common, and Bird-Anthias notes that shorter suit major leads, particularly from doubletons are better even more frequently.

 

I will do sim later if nobody beats me to it!

[BillPatch]

I did a simulation of 3750 hands declarer any balanced 15 hcp dummy any 8-9 hcp with 0-3 spades and 0-3 hearts. leading hand given.

the results Set contract JS 19.28% QC 15.12% 2C 13.95% 10H 13.71% QH 13.41% 2h 12.56

defensive tricks JS 4.70 2C 4.57 TH 4.53 2H 4.51 QH 4.50 QC 4.48

So as I predicted JS lead was best both by the IMPS measure % contract set and the MP measure avg. defensive tricks. QC second at IMPS. mediocre at MPs. A 2c was 2nd and MPs and 3rd at IMPS.

[BillPatch]

A comparison of the poll results with the sim results suggests that BBO poll takers are better at MPs than IMPs in opening leads. One more person preferred the top result spade J at MPs, and most of the remainder chose the second best MP strategy the club 2. At IMPs only a minority chose the number one answer according to the sim, and an equally large cluster chose the third best answer the club 2.