Percentage Play

[AAr]

Suppose between your hand and dummy, in the key suit, this is the layout:

 

Declarer Hand: KQJ9

Dummy: 1085

 

Suppose in order to make the bid, you don't have to run the suit for zero losers, but you MUST win the first trick of the suit. You can NOT let the opponents take the ace on the first trick of the suit. If they do, you're down. But, if you win the first trick, even if the opponents take the ace later, you make the bid. What is generally the best play to accomplish this on this 4-3 fit?

 

Now, the tougher question: On the same above holding, if you say, overbid the hand, and now actually have to take four tricks in the mentioned suit to make the bid (Meaning: You must run the suit for zero losers), what would be the best bet? An endplay of some sorts? A squeeze? Is it even possible? What would be the best bet here? And, is it really as odds-against to work at is seems?

[Stephen Tu]

Still the all time BBO forum king of super-weird, silly questions I see. It's hard for me to envision hands where these would realistically come up. I suppose the first situation could occur in a notrump contract where you must steal one trick in this suit for the contract but the opps have a suit to run to set you but don't know that. In that case, generally you just want to lead a card from dummy to the K. If RHO has the ace, he won't fly with it unless he knows how to set you in which case you are dead anyway. If LHO has the ace (and hasn't figured out your side suit weakness), he may place you with KQ9x or similar, and duck in his mind giving you a guess of whether to play his partner for the J or the A.

 

The second case, no opponent is going to duck 4 rounds of the suit, or 3 rounds then get squeezed, so the only realistic scenario is for an opponent to lead the ace out of turn or drop it face up on the table, becoming a major penalty card, then forcing him to play the ace as a discard on some suit he is out of. Good luck with that. Only possible in live bridge as online prevents irregularities.

[blackshoe]

Online bridge prevents some irregularities, and ignores or inhibits (or prohibits) the TD from dealing with others.

[billw55]

Needing to "steal" a trick in one suit before playing another suit happens often enough to be a real consideration. It seems to be just a matter of deception. The obvious start is low from dummy - RHO will often duck the ace. So the question is, which honor to play from hand to discourage LHO from taking it? Perhaps I can create the illusion that I hold, say, KQ9, when holding up the ace would give me a guess next round. So definitely not the jack.

 

edit: I see Stephen Tu already mentioned this.

 

Trying for four tricks seems impossible.

 

 

 

[nige1]

Suppose between your hand and dummy, in the key suit, this is the layout:

 

Declarer Hand: KQJ9

Dummy: 1085

 

Suppose in order to make the bid, you don't have to run the suit for zero losers, but you MUST win the first trick of the suit. You can NOT let the opponents take the ace on the first trick of the suit. If they do, you're down. But, if you win the first trick, even if the opponents take the ace later, you make the bid. What is generally the best play to accomplish this on this 4-3 fit?

Now, the tougher question: On the same above holding, if you say, overbid the hand, and now actually have to take four tricks in the mentioned suit to make the bid (Meaning: You must run the suit for zero losers), what would be the best bet? An endplay of some sorts? A squeeze? Is it even possible? What would be the best bet here? And, is it really as odds-against to work at is seems?

[hv=pc=n&s=st85h654d432cA543&w=sa6432hJt98dj9tcJ&n=skqj9hAKQ32dAKQc2&d=s&a=1sp4np5cp6sppp&p=cj]399|300|

South wins West's ♣ lead and leads a trump.

If West greedily ducks, declarer can make 6♠ with 5 ♠ tricks :)[/hv]