Pick a line

[Siegmund]

♠Qxx

♥AJ

♦A9xxxx

♣xx

 

♠AKJxx

♥Kx

♦Kx

♣AKQx

 

Simple fast auction: 2C-2D, 2S-3S, 4NT-5S, 7S. ♦Q led.

 

Obviously you have to dispose of the small club in your hand. And if everything breaks well it is easy. Got a few choices which bad breaks to be prepared for...

[WesleyC]

I'd start with the AK of spades.

 

If trumps break 3/2 (68%), i'll try to ruff a club high. This line fails when the opponent with the remaining trump can ruff the first or second club (a total of 2.9%).

 

If trumps break 4/1 (28%), draw them all (crossing back in hearts) and ruff a diamond before crossing back to dummy with a heart. This fails when the diamonds are 4/1 unless the hand with 4+D also has 4+C (a total of 5.6%).

 

If trumps break 5/0 (4%) then don't buy a lottery ticket.

 

If my calculations are right, this line makes slam about 87.5%

[phil_20686]

I'd start with the AK of spades.

 

If trumps break 3/2 (68%), i'll try to ruff a club high. This line fails when the opponent with the remaining trump can ruff the first or second club (a total of 2.9%).

 

If trumps break 4/1 (28%), draw them all (crossing back in hearts) and ruff a diamond before crossing back to dummy with a heart. This fails when the diamonds are 4/1 unless the hand with 4+D also has 4+C (a total of 5.6%).

 

If trumps break 5/0 (4%) then don't buy a lottery ticket.

 

If my calculations are right, this line makes slam about 87.5%

 

So this is kinda the obvious line, but I think you can do slightly better when lho has four spades, since the lead basically tells you for sure that lho has QJT(x) of diamonds. In that case you can make when lho has hands like Jxxx xxx QJTx xx. You cash AK of spades, now AK of diamonds and a ruff small, then AKQ of clubs. If he pitches a heart (say) you can cash two hearts ruff another diamond small, and then ruff a club and a diamond high. If instead he ruffs you can over ruff, ruff a diamond small, draw the last trump and cash hearts and diamonds.

 

Position looks like this: [hv=pc=n&s=sj32hk3d2cq2&w=st9h542djt3c&n=sqhajda7654c&e=shdc]399|300[/hv] or possibly [hv=pc=n&s=sj32hk3d2cq2&w=st9h54djt3c3&n=sqhajda7654c&e=shdc]399|300[/hv]

 

In either case west has no answer to playing the club Q.

[gszes]

ty for saving me some typing:)

[nige1]

On reflection, I like Phil_20686's cunning line :)

[Siegmund]

My first thought was I might do better with diamonds than spades -- pull all the trump, ruff a diamond, claim if they are 3-2, use the HJ to try to get 2 entries if they were 4-1 -- but I think AK and club ruffed high line is better now too.

[WellSpyder]

the lead basically tells you for sure that lho has QJT(x) of diamonds.

How confident are you really about this? He has got to lead something, and I wonder whether there is a possibility that he might feel a lead from QJ bare won't give anything away. In that case I think you have a bit of a dilemma following your line if ♦J falls under the A. This means ♦ were 3-2 all along, but if trumps are 4-1 you no longer have the entries to safely ruff out the diamonds and return to cash the suit. You can cash AKQ of clubs, but if West discards I don't see how you are going to get home unless he has a third diamond after all.

[nige1]

My first thought was I might do better with diamonds than spades -- pull all the trump, ruff a diamond, claim if they are 3-2, use the HJ to try to get 2 entries if they were 4-1 -- but I think AK and club ruffed high line is better now too.

I feel It's close between the lines of WesleyC and phil_20686. As Wellspyder says, it partly depends on inferences from the ♦ lead. When RHO has 4 ♠s, then, as Phil_20686 says, you must adopt WesleyC's line. Siegmund's line is also worth considering although it might fail against an opponent who rises with ♥Q when declarer leads a ♥ towards dummy.