vul vs not, would you move?

[diana_eva]

ACBL speedball, IMPs. Unknown opps, expert partner. Would you bid anything here?

 

 

[hv=pc=n&s=SA853HAT643DCJ853&d=w&v=n&a=3DP3N?]133|200[/hv]

[mikeh]

no.

 

rho may be robbing you blind but partner's silence suggests that this is relatively unlikely, and if rho has bid this to make, bidding here is unlikely to result in less than -500 and 800 to 1100 is not implausible. In addition, your diamond void might mean that declarer isn't going to enjoy the hand as much as he is hoping. None of this is cast in stone, but you already knew that, hence the problem :D

[gszes]

club 3 hoping to prevent rho from scoring up a major suit K.

 

Sorry what was the question? NO.

[Finch]

I think it's extremely close, in the context of playing double as take-out of diamonds (which is how I play the double).

Mikeh acknowledges that (indirectly) it could easily be right to act here, because there are four types of 3NT bid:

1. A big balanced hand with some diamond support

2. A random psyche with a big diamond fit

3. A hand with a diamond fit and hopes of taking 9 tricks (depending on pre-empt style, say Kxx Qxx Axxx Axx

4. A two-way shot its own long suit and hopes of 9 tricks (Kx Qx xx AKQxxxx) - or this hand with many more high cards

 

If RHO has type 1, acting will be expensive

RHO is less likely to have type 2, because partner didn't act looking at his own shortage (but it's still quite possible partner has a semi-balanced hand)

 

The danger is that if we pass we concede a double game swing. Give partner, say, the perfect x QJxxx xxx Q10xx and 3NT is making (so is 4NT), 5D is off in the singleton spade lead, and 4H makes an overtrick unless they find their club ruff.

 

I have persuaded myself to double. I think it's clear to do so at any other vulnerability.

[wanoff]

I think it's extremely close, in the context of playing double as take-out of diamonds (which is how I play the double).

Mikeh acknowledges that (indirectly) it could easily be right to act here, because there are four types of 3NT bid:

1. A big balanced hand with some diamond support

2. A random psyche with a big diamond fit

3. A hand with a diamond fit and hopes of taking 9 tricks (depending on pre-empt style, say Kxx Qxx Axxx Axx

4. A two-way shot its own long suit and hopes of 9 tricks (Kx Qx xx AKQxxxx) - or this hand with many more high cards

 

I have persuaded myself to double. I think it's clear to do so at any other vulnerability.

 

Agree with double.

Need to look at the frequencies of these types. Type 1. would be expensive but I'd guess not that likely. Neither is 4. that likely.

Type 2. will more often than not, be a controlled psyche with say ♦Kxx and likely to be more frequent than one might expect.

[WesleyC]

I would definitely act here and I don't think it's close.

 

As Frances pointed out, at these colours RHO could hold any number of hands to bid 3NT and holding extreme diamond shortage, multiple Aces and good support for both majors it must be us that acts.

 

Players often bias their decisions at unfavorable towards passing because they fear going for 500/800. However holding a strong unbalanced hand like this one, the REAL risk is passing and coming back with +150 or even -430 when our side is cold for +620/650.

 

Finally, even if RHO does have the most scary possible holding (a big balanced hand with mild diamond fit) there's still a decent chance that Diamonds break unfavourably and partner will be able to pass 3NT for penalties. Opposite as little as [Qxx Qxx KJxx xxx] we're probably beating 3NT by a couple of tricks.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=SA853HAT643DCJ853&d=w&v=n&a=3DP3N?]133|200|

ACBL speedball, IMPs. Unknown opps, expert partner. Would you bid anything here?[/hv]

IMO it depends on style and agreement but I rank

1. Pass. At red, discretion might be the better part of valour.
2. 4♣. ART. Better minor. T/O double of other minor.
3. Double. When you think 3N is based on a long minor suit and you are on lead, then you might play double as showing a good hand with either stops in both minors or 5+ quick winners.

[diana_eva]

This wasn't a hand I played so I don't really know what this partnership's agreements were. But I do know that they are quite good players. South doubled and it seemed pretty crazy to me.

 

 

The amusing part is that much of the field solved the problem easily: North overcalled 3S with a flat 10 count and Kxxxx of spades. Only those where North passed found themselves in this spot.

 

Bidding works obviously. EW have a good sac in diamonds and 5M makes with careful play. East had a 12 count or some such with diam support.

[diana_eva]

I found the hand. OK, North had 11 with KTxxx but still...

[hv=pc=n&s=SA853HAT643DCJ853&w=S92HKDKQ876543CT7&n=SKT764H87DA92CA94&e=SQJHQJ952DJTCKQ62&d=w&v=n&a=3DP3ND]399|300[/hv]

[MrAce]

The amusing part is that much of the field solved the problem easily: North overcalled 3S with a flat 10 count and Kxxxx of spades. Only those where North passed found themselves in this spot.

 

Bidding works obviously. EW have a good sac in diamonds and 5M makes with careful play. East had a 12 count or some such with diam support.

 

So are you telling us that most of the field opened only 3 with E hand despite 8 cards and favourable and bid 3 NT with E hand?

 

Double would not even occur to me. On this particular hand double rescue us from getting robbed, On other hands when you have the real values it will be totally another story. Even with this auction and hands, in which too many weird things happened, such as W opening only 3 with 8 cards and favourable, N having to pass with AAK, E bidding 3 NT with aceless hand, and S having perfect shape for double.

 

Over double, N will obviously pass, E will run to 4♦ and NS will end up in 4♠ or double 5♦ or bid 5 or 6 ♠. Let's assume the best for NS and that they were allowed to play 4♠. Even a change of a small card in EW hand can make 4♠ get you a minus score when passing achieves a plus score.

 

I am OK with losing this board, for the piece of mind in future.

[diana_eva]

Yep, was pretty interesting :) 10 out of 25 tables opened 3♦. One opened 2♦, two or three passed, the rest opened 4 or 5♦.

 

So in conclusion it's OK to lose this one? I was quite puzzled by how overcalling or doing something with South's hand worked. If you pass it out it's a loss.

Edited July 25, 2015 by diana_eva

[ggwhiz]

Yeah but if I bid with the south hand, I'm in slam (or too close for comfort).

[WesleyC]

On the actual hand, I think overcalling 3S on the North cards is suicidal. With only a weak 5c suit (sitting under the strong hand) and length in diamonds, there is a huge risk that you go for a number on a partscore board or end up too high in an unmakeable game. If our side IS making a game, partner needs either diamond shortage or lots of HCP and either way they will stretch to act and get you there.

 

Note also that the north hand isn't a good fit for the South hand at all. Something like [QJTxx QJx xxxx x] which is far weaker (but a much nicer fit) makes game in a major practically 100% while the opponents' 3NT is ALSO 100%.

[zillahandp]

No not even close

[steve2005]

On the actual hand, I think overcalling 3S on the North cards is suicidal. With only a weak 5c suit (sitting under the strong hand) and length in diamonds, there is a huge risk that you go for a number on a partscore board or end up too high in an unmakeable game. If our side IS making a game, partner needs either diamond shortage or lots of HCP and either way they will stretch to act and get you there.

 

Note also that the north hand isn't a good fit for the South hand at all. Something like [QJTxx QJx xxxx x] which is far weaker (but a much nicer fit) makes game in a major practically 100% while the opponents' 3NT is ALSO 100%.

 

I agree what happens if you overcall 3♠ with a good hand, partner in the back of his mind will remember that balanced 11 count with a poor suit you overcalled.

[karlson]

I would double with the south hand. I'm not so worried about taking a phantom like mikeh suggests -- I think if 3N is going down partner is quite likely to pass.

[mikeh]

I would double with the south hand. I'm not so worried about taking a phantom like mikeh suggests -- I think if 3N is going down partner is quite likely to pass.

I'm not the least worried about a phantom and nothing in my post as much as hinted at it. Of course partner will pass on almost all hands on which they fail. The problem is when they are cold, and partner can't/doesn't pass and RHO has a strong notrump or better.

[SelfGovern]

[snippage]

Finally, even if RHO does have the most scary possible holding (a big balanced hand with mild diamond fit) there's still a decent chance that Diamonds break unfavourably and partner will be able to pass 3NT for penalties. Opposite as little as [Qxx Qxx KJxx xxx] we're probably beating 3NT by a couple of tricks.

But probably not, it occurs to me, with the club 3 lead suggested by another poster. ;)

[phil_20686]

I agree with Frances. I would double here.

 

Partner can easily have a 14 count with 4 diamonds or so, and for one thing, *might be able to pass 3N x*. Which is a point that many are missing. I don't think double is necessarily going to be 1100, because when partner has a very bad hand he will pass, and you will concede 10 tricks most likely. Hard to imagine you won't take your two aces, and you will probably come to one more in the wash. If you hit partner with nothing but KT9x diamond and three hearts you might even beat this by a few without the balance of the points. The void diamond is a huge feature. If partner is looking at xxxx diamonds he will be over the moon. You could make 4M opposite almost nothing if that is the case. Kxxxx xx xxxx xx fives you moderate play!!!

 

If partner has moderate diamond values he can pass 3Nx. Kxx Kxx Kxx xxxx would be an absolute auto pass of 3N x and you are likely taking +500 on a lead of your 5 card major.

 

Partner knows the deal, if he has a good hand he can often bid 4D to show that, he will not, contrary to some posters, pile into slam because "you are showing a good hand".

 

Also, 3d seems pretty wet.