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Guess the MP score


  

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  1. 1. Guess the MP score



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I don't know if this is a good idea as a topic type, but here goes.

 

8.5 tables, mixed field (even spread ranging from beginner+ to expert). The weaker half of the field will be playing Acol (weak NT, 4cM) while the stronger half will be split between Acol and SAYC. What would you estimate to be the MP score for N/S here?

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sqt952hj32dqtc862&w=s63ht94dk8762cjt9&n=sak8ha875da4ca753&e=sj74hkq6dj953ckq4&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1c(16%2B)p1d(0-5)p1hp1sp2sp3sppp&p=cjc3c4c2ctcacqc6c5ckc8c9s4s2s3s8sas7s5s6sksjs9d2h5hkh2h4d3dtdkdac7d5h3d6hah6hjh9d4d9dqd7sqd8h7djsthth8]399|300[/hv]

 

Final result was 3S+1 for +170.

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The beginners and Acol players will bid 1-1-3NT or 1-1-3NT.

 

On a diamond lead they will stick in the ten (second hand low) and play the spade honours in the wrong order, attempting to block the suit. However, there is no obvious way to go off, so they will rack up their contract.

 

Of course, I would not expect this to happen very often, except that OP was obviously shocked by the score ...

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It looks like there are 5 possible/probable losers in spades, so ten tricks ought to be pretty good.

 

Then again, 3NT can be made on the likely diamond lead from either side. But will people really be playing there with a perfectly good spade fit?

 

I voted 80-90%, but am feeling a little less confident now, maybe 60-70 or 70-80 is more realistic.

 

 

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At least half the Acol players will open 1 rather than 1, and most of them will rebid 2N and play there. The brave few who bid on with the S hand will play in 3N or 4S. Even if they pass, they've done better than spade part score whenever they get Ds right. And against any number of spades a reasonable number of defenders will lead 4th highest from their longest and strongest.

 

So I'm guessing about 25%.

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At least half the Acol players will open 1 rather than 1, and most of them will rebid 2N and play there. The brave few who bid on with the S hand will play in 3N or 4S. Even if they pass, they've done better than spade part score whenever they get Ds right. And against any number of spades a reasonable number of defenders will lead 4th highest from their longest and strongest.

 

So I'm guessing about 25%.

.. except that the score in question is +170, not +140. While NT does better than spades, +180 seems unlikely. At least, more than one or two of them.

 

There is the amusing possibility of east leading a low diamond, and then when back in, leading low again, blocking the suit. Even that seems only to lead to +150 though.

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The beginners and Acol players will bid 1-1-3NT or 1-1-3NT.

 

On a diamond lead they will stick in the ten (second hand low) and play the spade honours in the wrong order, attempting to block the suit. However, there is no obvious way to go off, so they will rack up their contract.

 

Of course, I would not expect this to happen very often, except that OP was obviously shocked by the score ...

 

I also thought 3 NT will be reached 1-2 or 3 times, and 2 NT partscore after 1m--1sp--2NT. NT partscores will do bad vs +170. Not sure if anyone will open 2 NT playing acol.

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Safest contract at a safe level. Many will fail to bid game at all and spades offers the most opportunity for an overtrick(s). I guessed 70-80 with only 3nt really getting the best of them. Of course if east avoids a heart lead due to the bidding I will drop my estimate to around 40% (what was that 1h bid anyway):)
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[hv=pc=n&s=sqt952hj32dqtc862&w=s63ht94dk8762cjt9&n=sak8ha875da4ca753&e=sj74hkq6dj953ckq4&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1c(16%2B)p1d(0-5)p1hp1sp2sp3sppp&p=cjc3c4c2ctcacqc6c5ckc8c9s4s2s3s8sas7s5s6sksjs9d2h5hkh2h4d3dtdkdac7d5h3d6hah6hjh9d4d9dqd7sqd8h7djsthth8]399|300|

I don't know if this is a good idea as a topic type, but here goes.

8.5 tables, mixed field (even spread ranging from beginner+ to expert). The weaker half of the field will be playing Acol (weak NT, 4cM) while the stronger half will be split between Acol and SAYC. What would you estimate to be the MP score for N/S here?

Final result was 3S+1 for +170.[/hv]

I think I like this type of topic. What is the common opening bid for N hand in Acol?
Playing Acol, North might open 1 or 1. A likely auction:

1 - 1 -

2N - 3N AP

IMO 3N is likely to make, especially after K lead, so 3+1 might be a bottom.

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I don't know acol, but if the system requires a 1 opening bid, then I don't think I am missing much. So I expect that almost the entire field will see the auction proceed 1 1 2N, and most will then play it there.

 

If I were on lead as east with that hand and that auction, I would be very, very tempted to lead the heart K. I mean, Jxxx, even J9xx, is a horrible lead against notrump when the suit could well be 3=3=3 around the table, and even 4=3, with dummy holding 4 (altho that may be less likely if acol is a strictly up the line method even with very weak responding hands.

 

On a Heart K lead, N-S fall into 10 winners in notrump. Moreover, it is possible to see how 11 tricks can be won after that start, altho that would be ugly.

 

It is a small field, which tends to randomize score distributions.

 

I doubt that the hand would prompt a post if the score were average, and so I predict that 170 scored 1 or fewer mps. It was beaten by 2 or 3N bids by N and by 4S bidders by S.

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Yeah but is K of a likely lead in the context of level of players? They will lead . Only 4 card suit E holds.

wait a second...we were told that some of the players were expert :P

 

And maybe the non-experts would missort their hands....with KQJx in hearts, they'd all lead one, lol.

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Surely some Norths will feel that this hand, with all four aces and five quick tricks, is too strong to open 1 and rebid 2N. If North opens 2N, then North is likely to play 4, and a lead is quite likely against this, allowing an easy ten tricks.
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The standard English Acol auction is surely 1H, 1S, 2NT, Pass.

 

Of course, local clubs tend to attract local fads. In some clubs it might be fashionable to open a minor before a major, or open 2NT (or a Benji 2C) on a balanced 19.

 

But my guess is that 2NT making 8 Or 9 would be normal ...?

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Let's see, there are many possible bidding sequences with these hands, and most of them do not lead to 4.

 

Possibility 1: 1 - Does not get as many points

2: 1 - Again doesn't win as many points ~12.5% +6.25% MPs

3: 1NT - Also probably doesn't get as many points ~6.25% +6.25% MPs

4: 1NT with transfer to spades - About equal to this ~18.75% +9.375% MPs

5: 1 something - 1 stuff ending in 3 - About equal to this ~12.5% +6.25% MPs

6: 1 something - 1 - 2NT - Probably doesn't get as many points as this ~12.5% +12.5% MPs

7: 1 something - 1 - stuff ending in 3NT - Beats this if it makes, loses if it fails, but with how they'd likely play it'd probably only make about 20% of the time, ~12.5% +10% MPs

8: 1 something - 1 - stuff ending in 4 - Beats this ~12.5%, +0 MPs

 

Total: +69.375% MPs So I'll go with 60-70%.

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Hm. I estimated 70% too -- but on the assumption that almost everyone in my club is getting to 4S (even the ladies with walkers are bidding on 5 HCP and a 5-card suit now, it seems) but most of them finding a way to lose 4 fast tricks.
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Well, turned out that +170 was worth 33% (I made a typo in the OP, it was 7.5 tables, not 8.5) with most pairs in 3NT or 4S making (one making an overtrick on K lead, and I guess a later diamond switch). In a very quick post-mortem I basically said that I didn't want to be in 4S looking at the 2 hands. I had claimed when I had 2 diamond tricks and hadn't realised that hearts were breaking 3-3 also.
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Well, turned out that +170 was worth 33% (I made a typo in the OP, it was 7.5 tables, not 8.5) with most pairs in 3NT or 4S making (one making an overtrick on K lead, and I guess a later diamond switch). In a very quick post-mortem I basically said that I didn't want to be in 4S looking at the 2 hands. I had claimed when I had 2 diamond tricks and hadn't realised that hearts were breaking 3-3 also.

 

Not a total surprise, 1/-1-3N (15-16=1N, 17-18=2N, 19=3N) or playing a 19-20 balanced 2N because you have 2 2N openers one of them thru 2 are fairly prevalent in UK club bridge, and either of these will get you to game.

 

We'd start with 2N because we play good 19-21 for our 2N opener.

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