Walddk Posted March 22, 2005 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2005 This is not an easy one, and anything could be right. My personal view is that it's dangerous to come in with a 5332 shape vulnerable unless your 5-card suit is very good. If I bid, I think double is most flexible, because that will also keep the minors in play, and partner can easily have 5 in one of them and a doubleton spade. Besides, spades are not completely lost just yet even if you double. There are some hands where partner will choose to bid 2♠ with only 3 cards. 3343 or 3334, and even 3244 when weak. But by doubling we also get to 3 of a minor when that is right (2353 and 2335). Overcalling 2♠ is too unilateral to my liking. Roland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted March 22, 2005 Report Share Posted March 22, 2005 2S too unilateral..? It may look so, but it is not that unilateral if pard is alert. He should reason the obar 2S is often made on the principle "they have fit, we have fit", so with 1-3-54 or 2-3-53, he could perhaps try 3m. It can go wrong, of course, but the point is 2S needn't always show 6 cards or goodish 5 and you have to cater for it being made on a broken 5 card. Especially in fit auctions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted March 22, 2005 Report Share Posted March 22, 2005 (snip) My personal view is that it's dangerous to come in with a 5332 shape vulnerable unless your 5-card suit is very good. If I bid, (snip) For once, Roland and I are on the same page (and quite a different one from nearly everyone else). Like Roland, I think IF I bid here, I will double... but at imps, like Roland, I think 2♠ shows better spades... in fact, in my reply, I said... My spade suit isn't quite suitable for 2♠. Justin (another gold star beside Roland replying here) suggest that passing gives away 6 imps. I assume his assumption here is you make 2♠ (+110) and they make 2♥ (-110), for a net swing of six imps (six imps is 220 to 260). But there are many other options. For one thing, both 2♥ and 2♠ are down one, so you throw away five imps (-100 instead of +100), or one makes and the other is down, so as long as their is no double, it is a wash (-100 versus -110, or +100 versus +110). But there are other options, as well. These others ones obviously weigh heavily on Roland's mind when he said the "(his) personal view is that it's dangerous to come in with a 5332 shape vulnerable unless your 5-card suit is very good." This worries me too. It is so much easier for the opponents to double you when they have two or three trump tricks and their partner has limited their hand. Thus bidding here runs two significant risk. The first is West is on big hand and finds a penalty double when they can't make much more than +140. Now -500 or -800 is possible, and minus more occassionally. Second, if you get away with the 2♠, your partner might easily raise you expecting more DESPITE OBAR rules, given the type of game (imps) and the vulnerabilty. It would be a darn shame to bid 2♠, have West pass and have partner raise to 3♠ on some unattractive hand like Jxxx xx KTx QTxx (everything appears to be working) only to find we lose 2♠, 2♥, 2♣, and 1♦ doubled (when we misguess ♦Q and WEST has AQ of spades) when we can win 3D and one club against what ever they bid (no diamond guess when you see dummy). Or give partner the spade QJ, and we still lose 2C, 2H, and 1S doubled and have to find diamond Queen to avoid down two. Bid if you have too... but at some point, you need to start considering risk versus reward.... that is take a look at the vulnerabilty and the type game. At MP, you should bid everytime, because based upon frequency, 2♠ will be the winner in the long run (more good results after bidding 2♠ than after passing). But based upon anticipated results, bidding here at imps, will lead to enough larger negative swings to make it unwise in my opinion (this hand is not worth the 14 hcp it seems to have 5-2-3-3 is not great distribution, 2 hearts is not a great holding, the king of hearts should be discounted). There is a third consideration here. Your opponents are vulnerable. IF WEST has any extra, he will make a game try. If he passes, your partner will know you ahve a nice hand. Under these conditions, your partner will strain to reopen despite your pass if it goes 2H-P-P-P.... Ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandal Posted March 22, 2005 Report Share Posted March 22, 2005 (snip) My personal view is that it's dangerous to come in with a 5332 shape vulnerable unless your 5-card suit is very good. If I bid, (snip) For once, Roland and I are on the same page (and quite a different one from nearly everyone else). Like Roland, I think IF I bid here, I will double... but at imps, like Roland, I think 2♠ shows better spades... in fact, in my reply, I said... My spade suit isn't quite suitable for 2â™ . Justin (another gold star beside Roland replying here) suggest that passing gives away 6 imps. I assume his assumption here is you make 2♠ (+110) and they make 2♥ (-110), for a net swing of six imps (six imps is 220 to 260). But there are many other options. For one thing, both 2♥ and 2♠ are down one, so you throw away five imps (-100 instead of +100), or one makes and the other is down, so as long as their is no double, it is a wash (-100 versus -110, or +100 versus +110). But there are other options, as well. These others ones obviously weigh heavily on Roland's mind when he said the "(his) personal view is that it's dangerous to come in with a 5332 shape vulnerable unless your 5-card suit is very good." This worries me too. It is so much easier for the opponents to double you when they have two or three trump tricks and their partner has limited their hand. Thus bidding here runs two significant risk. The first is West is on big hand and finds a penalty double when they can't make much more than +140. Now -500 or -800 is possible, and minus more occassionally. Second, if you get away with the 2♠, your partner might easily raise you expecting more DESPITE OBAR rules, given the type of game (imps) and the vulnerabilty. It would be a darn shame to bid 2♠, have West pass and have partner raise to 3♠ on some unattractive hand like Jxxx xx KTx QTxx (everything appears to be working) only to find we lose 2♠, 2♥, 2♣, and 1♦ doubled (when we misguess ♦Q and WEST has AQ of spades) when we can win 3D and one club against what ever they bid (no diamond guess when you see dummy). Or give partner the spade QJ, and we still lose 2C, 2H, and 1S doubled and have to find diamond Queen to avoid down two. Bid if you have too... but at some point, you need to start considering risk versus reward.... that is take a look at the vulnerabilty and the type game. At MP, you should bid everytime, because based upon frequency, 2♠ will be the winner in the long run (more good results after bidding 2♠ than after passing). But based upon anticipated results, bidding here at imps, will lead to enough larger negative swings to make it unwise in my opinion (this hand is not worth the 14 hcp it seems to have 5-2-3-3 is not great distribution, 2 hearts is not a great holding, the king of hearts should be discounted). There is a third consideration here. Your opponents are vulnerable. IF WEST has any extra, he will make a game try. If he passes, your partner will know you ahve a nice hand. Under these conditions, your partner will strain to reopen despite your pass if it goes 2H-P-P-P.... Ben You really have all these thoughts and worriesbefore bidding? :unsure: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted March 22, 2005 Report Share Posted March 22, 2005 You really have all these thoughts and worriesbefore bidding? :unsure: All of them? Of course not. I do know I would bid 2S at matchpoints with this handI do know I woud bid 2S at imps not vul with this handI do know that I discount the heart king and require better spades or stronger hand to bid 2S vul at IMPS. I would bid 2S if the heart king was diamond king.. that is give meKT98x xx AKJ Kxx I would bid 2S (same dist, same point count, same honor count)... it is that close. Ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted March 22, 2005 Report Share Posted March 22, 2005 2S too unilateral..? It may look so, but it is not that unilateral if pard is alert. He should reason the obar 2S is often made on the principle "they have fit, we have fit", so with 1-3-54 or 2-3-53, he could perhaps try 3m. It can go wrong, of course, but the point is 2S needn't always show 6 cards or goodish 5 and you have to cater for it being made on a broken 5 card. Especially in fit auctions. imo partner would almost never bid 3m over my 2S... only if he is stiff/void with a 6+ card suit... as i said earlier, i wouldn't bid 2S here because i don't really want a spade lead and because my ♥K is not pulling full weight... to compete at all isn't even clear, at imps, but if i did i would double Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ritong Posted March 22, 2005 Report Share Posted March 22, 2005 hi :unsure:my concern is : what will be my feelings if my part raises to game? here, i wud be HAPPY, so i overcall 2♠ . the possible game bonus is a good counterpart to possible heavy penalty, and there is an other subterranean reason, my part is supposed to balance 1♥pass2♥pass pass with practically any hand, and what will i bid? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walddk Posted March 22, 2005 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2005 hi :unsure:my concern is : what will be my feelings if my part raises to game? here, i wud be HAPPY, so i overcall 2♠ . the possible game bonus is a good counterpart to possible heavy penalty, and there is an other subterranean reason, my part is supposed to balance 1♥pass2♥pass pass with practically any hand, and what will i bid? If he does, Henri, you will know that he bid your hand too. Pass is therefore clear to me. No need to punish him for doing the right thing: balancing. Roland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ritong Posted March 22, 2005 Report Share Posted March 22, 2005 there is few to be said about the ♥king, also..1)if i am declarer, LHO will lead a ♥ most likely, even holding the ace2)if he does not do that, his other lead may well be good to usso, tear up this card is pessimistic , in my view Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted March 22, 2005 Report Share Posted March 22, 2005 hi :unsure:my concern is : what will be my feelings if my part raises to game? here, i wud be HAPPY, so i overcall 2♠ . the possible game bonus is a good counterpart to possible heavy penalty, and there is an other subterranean reason, my part is supposed to balance 1♥pass2♥pass pass with practically any hand, and what will i bid? Henri is yet another gold star. And no offense to all the other gold stars, who are all obviously great players. Henri is the best one to reply to this thread so far in my opinion. Disagree with Henri's advice only if you are nuts, so bidding 2♠ must be the right bid.... Having said that, I also I have always freely admit to being nuts. I still will not bid 2♠ for the reasons I outlined above, unless 2♥ was alerted as "preemptive" raise. What are the chances partner will raise to game here if you bid 2♠ opposite a normal or constructive (2/1) 2♥ raise? The odds are nearly zero. The reason seems clear. West has an opening hand vul, so lets say 12 hcp minimum (yes some of us open with less). East made a "constructive" or normal 2♥ raise, say 8 points is reasonable estimate (2/1 can be as much as 10 I guess). And I am looking at 14 hcp. How many does that leave for partner? If they are 12 opposite 8, that leaves him with six. If either oppoent has anything extra, partner will have less than six. So let's say the expectation for partner is from 8 hcp down. This is why I gave partner six hcp in my example hand earlier. I anticipate partner might have about six hcp. If two of his six hcp is the doubleton heart QUEEN, biddign here is REALLY DANGEROUS. So I didn't give him that. I could also have given him AQxx of spades I guess, but didn't make it that good either. But if you give him the spade AQ and fit, you stll have the same problem.. too many losers in other suits. I can't imagine the actual odds (maybe someone with a deal simulator can do a task), but I think it is 3 times more likely we will get doubled for huge down than partner will have enough to bid a makeable 4♠ after my 2♠ overcall here. So while Henri describes himself "happy" if his parnter bids four spades, I would describe my reactions as more "shock". What six to eight points do you want your partner to have (For game I would guess he would have eight)? How about heart AQ and club Queen? Is that enough? AQxxxxxxxQxx Will you not lose 2C and 2D and maybe only one heart, perhaps two? How about give your partner more distribution?AQxxxxxxQxxx Now you have a chance, but still risk losing two clubs, two diamonds and heart, and here surely yoru partner will reopen if you pass so you need not risk getting crushed in 2♠X if parntner has some other hand types. How aboutAxxxxxxxxQxxx Now you win five spades, 1D, 2 diamond ruffs and 1C, so depends upon where the heart ACE is. No, I dont think the extremely slim chance of bidding here offset the risk of going crunch in 2♠. If I pass here and partner does me the expected favor of balancing (henri says it is automatic, I agree it is surely very close to automatic), I would try 3♠ over dbl, and 3♣ over 2NT, and pass over 3 of a minor. Ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted March 23, 2005 Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 For what it is worth, I asked bridgebrowser to find all hand that started 1H-P-2H-2S where the 2S bidder had at least 13 hcp and not more than 17 hcp with 5332 distribution (5S and any other 332). These were self-selecting in that at least one player had to be "brave" enough to bid 2S. I then used JACK to figure out how many tricks in spades and hearts the hands could make. There are 23 hands, shown below. Take a look if you are interested. There were only two hands were partner of the 2S bidder had enough to make game. Once where he hand a takeout double of a psyche 1H and didn;t, the other where overcaller hand solid spades and three hearts, and the reaponder had 6 hcp (two minor kings), and a singleton heart. Also look where even when 2S works, the partner may "overbid in response". ========================================C:\BRBR\2s.txtProduced by BRidgeBRowser on 22-Mar-05========================================IMP-5 West Dlr: South Board 367 S 64 Vul: N-S H 732 South D 42 North S T93 C Q97632 S KJ2 H AKT6 H Q984 D AJ9 East D T7653 C AJ4 S AQ875 C 5 H J5 D KQ8 C KT8 South West North East 1H Pass 2H 2S You can. with accurate play, win 7 tricks for 2S down one. Here the hand is more "ideal" as most of the hcp are working. Your opponents can make 5H or they can stop off to double you. Most didn't bid game with "their" cards/ 7 11 They bid their game, we ahd best not bid 4S IMP-7 West Dlr: East Board 1542 S Q8 Vul: E-W H J73 South D 975 North S T2 C KQ764 S K9765 H 854 H AQ D KT6432 East D QJ8 C A2 S AJ43 C JT3 H KT962 D A C 985 South West North East 1H Pass 2H 2S Pass Pass 3H Pass Pass Pass Opening lead: ST Result: Made 3Score: 140 If they double 2S (assume vul) they collect 1 or 2 imps depending on if 3 or 4H made at other table).. or they can bid 4H and play to make. IMP-11 East Dlr: North Board 485 S Q762 Vul: N-S H Q93 North D Q96 South S J5 C T97 S 98 H AKT75 H 642 D 8754 West D T32 C AQ S AKT43 C KJ432 H J8 D AKJ C 865 North East South West 1H Pass 2H 2S Pass Pass Pass This would be a wash if both vul. If you pass, they are down one (+100 for you), and you can make exactly 2s (+110). But this hand has stong spades and the good diamond suit so we will all be overcalling. What is partner to do? Why he will be sorely tempted to bid 3S, with four card spade support to an honor and a probably working diamond Queen. If he does, you just converted a push into minus five imps. MP-42 South Dlr: East Board 214 S T986 Vul: E-W H 8 East D KT9 West S 5 C K9842 S J74 H AKJT94 H Q72 D AQ North D 87532 C J765 S AKQ32 C T3 H 653 D J64 C AQ East South West North 1H Pass 2H 2S 3C 4S Pass Pass Pass This is the hand Ritong was worried about, partner jumping to game. But here, you can imagine hands were partner has 6 to 8 points that let you make. Your third heart includes the chance partner has a singleton heart. Your good spade honors make it more likely your partner;s hoped for points are going to be useful in the side suits. This is the type hand Roland and I was talking about needing better spades. MP-50 North Dlr: West Board 784 S K76 Vul: E-W H QT3 West D JT84 East S J4 C 943 S T95 H AK976 H J42 D 9632 South D A7 C KQ S AQ832 C JT852 H 85 D KQ5 C A76 West North East South 1H Pass 2H 2S Here is the 6 imp swing hand Justin was talking about. Both sides can make exactly 8 tricks. But here is one difference. This hand is “better” than the one in this thread, so 2S overcall here is not such a bad idea. MP-11 South Dlr: South Board 927 S 42 Vul: N-S H KQT4 East D A4 West S KQJ83 C KJ832 S 76 H A9 H J763 D K72 North D QT93 C T97 S AT95 C Q64 H 852 D J865 C A5 East South West North 1H Pass 2H* 2S Hewre with better spades, and heart ace instead of king, bidding 2S is a huge disaster… even if they don’t double you lose 2 imps, if they double 8. You can win 6 tricks in spades, they can win 9 in hearts. MP-24 North Dlr: South Board 559 S K Vul: N-S H T5432 West D QJT6 East S T983 C J63 S Q7652 H 9 H Q7 D 532 South D K74 C Q9874 S AJ4 C AKT H AKJ86 D A98 C 52 West North East South 1H Pass 2H 2S They are unlikely to stop to double you in 2S. They can win 11 tricks in hearts, you have 7 tricks in spades. IMP-25 East Dlr: West Board 608 S 8653 Vul: E-W H K62 North D 74 South S QJ9 C Q864 S AKT74 H J85 H A4 D Q985 West D J32 C KT7 S 2 C J52 H QT973 D AKT6 C A93 North East South West 1H Pass 2H 2S Bidding here risk losing 3 imps or 8 imps if your partner with a good fitting hand raises to 3S and if he bids 4S? Forget about it. Here you can make 1S and they can make 3H. IMP-26 South Dlr: North Board 1397 S 74 Vul: N-S H T97 East D J7653 West S A865 C A53 S KQT92 H 864 H 53 D 84 North D AQ9 C J842 S J3 C Q96 H AKQJ2 D KT2 C KT7 East South West North 1H Pass 2H 2S 3H 3S Pass Pass 4H Pass Pass Pass Opening lead: D8 Result: Made 5 The “south” player here will bid on over 2S. If your partner with four card support bids 3S you could easily be -200 for lose of 2 imps. You can win 8 tricks in spades, they can win 9 in hearts. IMP-38 South Dlr: North Board 1061 S Vul: N-S H JT5 East D 852 West S 9762 C K987632 S KJT43 H 32 H Q64 D K94 North D QJ7 C QJT5 S AQ85 C A4 H AK987 D AT63 C East South West North 1H Pass 2H 2S They can make 4H, you can make 1S. They will out bid you. Note the “north” hand is weaker than expected, but his partner is stronger than expected. Note 2Sx is better than any part-score they might bid. ========================================10 boards played by * ========================================G:\2sv.txtProduced by BRidgeBRowser on 22-Mar-05========================================MP-0 East Dlr: West Board 708 S Q865 Vul: Both H J43 North D A8 South S T43 C Q965 S AJ972 H 76 H AQ2 D K95 West D J6 C JT843 S K C A72 H KT985 D QT7432 C K North East South West 1H Pass 2H 2S You can make 2S, they can make 3H. If you bid 2S, as here, south will bid again (hard to believe he opened). They will get to 3H. If your partner bids 3S in competition, you will go -200 versus -170 IMP-2 South Dlr: East Board 1146 S Q972 Vul: Both H Q9 East D JT8 West S A3 C AT65 S 54 H KT75 H 8642 D Q542 North D K76 C K98 S KJT86 C QJ73 H AJ3 D A93 C 42 East South West North 1H Pass 2H 2S Pass 3S Pass 4S Pass Pass Pass Ok, here is the hand I discussed where I said as long as raise to 2H is not “preemptive”. Notice if you pass, partner will balance, and you will get to 3S. If you bid, you will end up in 4S down. Here the most you can do is 3S, while they can only take 7 tricks in hearts. MP-3 West Dlr: East Board 378 S 4 Vul: Both H Q87 South D AJ843 North S J75 C K952 S AK632 H 6 H AJ D K975 East D QT6 C JT843 S QT98 C Q76 H KT95432 D 2 C A South West North East 1H Pass 2H 2S You can make one spade, they can make 4H. Your 2S bid will not help, and if your partner decides to bid 4S over 4H you will be very sorry you bid. MP-3 West Dlr: East Board 1226 S T53 Vul: Both H KJ5 South D J975 North S 87 C AK5 S KJ962 H 87 H 642 D 86432 East D AK C JT92 S AQ4 C Q43 H AQT93 D QT C 876 South West North East 1H Pass 2H 2S Another one where they can win 10 tricks in hearts and you can win 7 tricks in spades. If they were not going to game, you are likely to be doubled… but your 2S bid probably will encourage the opener to up-evalate his hand and bid the game. You have 7, they have 10 tricks. MP-4 North Dlr: South Board 387 S J97543 Vul: E-W H A64 West D 3 East S A2 C QT2 S KQT86 H 7 H J92 D QT875 South D J4 C J8643 S C AK7 H KQT853 D AK962 C 95 West North East South 1H Pass 2H 2S Your 2S bid is of no consequence, they will bid 4H. If your partner takes the push to 4S you will be sorry. They have 10 tricks in hearts, you have 7 in spades IMP-5 East Dlr: North Board 697 S KQ53 Vul: E-W H 5 North D Q9876 South S 98 C A85 S 42 H AK9632 H JT87 D 43 West D T52 C JT9 S AJT76 C K743 H Q4 D AKJ C Q62 North East South West 1H Pass 2H 2S This hand is not worth discussing, The “east” hand has a double over 1H and clearly south has a 2S call without the double and much will be bid. MP-6 North Dlr: East Board 586 S 3 Vul: Both H J73 West D 53 East S T962 C AK98764 S AQ874 H 85 H Q9 D J9842 South D QT6 C 52 S KJ5 C QJT H AKT642 D AK7 C 3 West North East South Pass 1H Pass 2H 2S No body overcalls 2S here.. just tells them how to play. MP-11 South Dlr: East Board 778 S JT93 Vul: Both H Q2 East D T2 West S 5 C AQT54 S 742 H K7643 H J95 D AJ54 North D KQ763 C J92 S AKQ86 C K3 H AT8 D 98 C 876 East South West North 1H Pass 2H 2S Here is another hand with good quality spades, the third heart is useful as partner rates to be short. A sound 2S overcall. As it is, catching partner with monster, you still can only make 3S without a heart lead. IMP-14 South Dlr: East Board 162 S Q63 Vul: N-S H J7 East D 7642 West S J4 C KQ93 S 972 H QT5432 H K96 D AJT5 North D Q9 C A S AKT85 C J8742 H A8 D K83 C T65 East South West North 1H Pass 2H 2S Again Two spade is not buying the contract. This time at least if partner bids 4S it is a good sacrifice, as they can make 4H and you are only down two in 4Sx. B IMP-14 West Dlr: West Board 364 S 6 Vul: N-S H AKQJ8 South D 542 North S KQJ85 C JT95 S 943 H 65 H T93 D J86 East D AK93 C AK7 S AT72 C 863 H 742 D QT7 C Q42 South West North East 1H Pass 2H 2S After you bid 2S with WEST hand, no way your partner is not bidding at least 3S with two quick tricks and three card support. This gets you to 3Sx down at least two (you can hold it to down one). You can make 8 tricks in spade, they 9 tricks in hearts. IMP-16 South Dlr: North Board 1277 S KT9 Vul: Both H J532 East D Q West S Q872 C QT652 S AJ653 H 87 H KQ D KJ32 North D T97 C 873 S 4 C AK9 H AT964 D A8654 C J4 East South West North 1H Pass 2H 2S Pass Pass This EAST is too strong to pass, both sides can make 9 tricks (as predicted by the law). But will West stop short of game given the vul overcall? Close. IMP-17 West Dlr: South Board 535 S T4 Vul: Both H A4 South D JT965 North S J C 9542 S A7632 H KJT63 H 985 D AQ84 East D K7 C T83 S KQ985 C Q76 H Q72 D 32 C AKJ South West North East 1H Pass 2H Dbl Pass 3D 3H 3S Pass Pass Pass Both sides can make 8 tricks. The 2S bid should get you a good result, but here is what happened to the one fellow who bid it… his partner took the push. So even when the bid wins, it can back fire on you. And this 3S should really have been doubled given the five-one split. Of course 3S was not well thought out. MP-18 West Dlr: West Board 132 S KT Vul: Both H Q8653 South D KQ63 North S 6 C JT S Q9842 H 4 H AJ D J98752 East D AT4 C A7632 S AJ753 C K84 H KT972 D C Q95 South West North East Pass Pass 1H Pass 2H 2S 3H Pass 4H Pass Pass They can win 10 tricks in hearts, you 7 in spades. Of course, this bidding by everyone is odd. ========================================13 boards played by Opener Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sceptic Posted March 23, 2005 Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 oh well, in my humble opinion I still think pass is better than 2 spades, if opener had 5H and 4S and 18 hcp I would rather he bid his game than land me in 2Sx, I think pass and wait for p's balance is still better than overcalling 2 spades with a mediocre suit and no redeaming features about the hand. KH is prob worth nothing may be not vuln against vuln I would bid 2 S at imps but pass looks best at mps as I would hope p aggresively balances. I have been called nuts before so I don't mind LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ritong Posted March 23, 2005 Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 hi again:) just a word more about this topic..my general policy is not trying to solve a specific situation with a specific answer, but is more oriented towards trying to establish general guidelines, if possible. the overcall subject is interesting, because it gathers a lot of pre-conceived considerations, like directing a lead , not risking a heavy penalty , and others . these considerations make sense, of course , but they are relatively secondary, i think, compared to the primitive goal of almost any bid : play in ATTACK . when i overcall, i hope to be raised, and i hope to be raised high . i admit easily that , in the submitted hand, chances to be raised to game are low, but they exist , mostly if my pard is reluctant to overcall with, say, 5 ♠ to the ace , some side king and a singleton , which , all in all, is not so much less probable than getting caught for - 500 . there are also some tactical considerations which are not easy to quantify , like " you won t have a peaceful walk, guys"..in some recent vugraph, roland declared himself amazed by the fact that people overcall with such " rotten " hands, particularly the italians if i remind well, and get away with it. i did not check closely, but i m pretty sure that in every case, game contract possibilities were in the picture , as a compensation to possible misfortunes , and , if the game level could not be reached, the usual side effects , like bothering opps, occured here & there. well, thanks if you standed all that blah-blah til now :huh: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walddk Posted March 23, 2005 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 in some recent vugraph, roland declared himself amazed by the fact that people overcall with such " rotten " hands, particularly the italians if i remind well, and get away with it. I was referring to the apparently modern style of overcalling on very bad suits, i.e. 10xxxx, Jxxxx and the like. That works for the Italians among others it seems, but they only do this at the 1-level at least. On the actual hand I am pretty sure that not even one Italian would overcall at the 2-level vulnerable if spades had been Jxxxx. I have a feeling that the majority would choose double rather than 2♠ if they bid with the hand in my first post. Roland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted March 23, 2005 Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 The analysis is interesting. I must say I'm surprised 2S doesn't fare well more often. That's not what my judgement was telling me. But perhaps judgement incorporates some tactical issues that were not considered in real life data. Point is, bidding 2S often leads to them taking the push to 3H. That's one closer to going down, and going down is bound to happen at least some times. As long as pard is educated not to take 2S too seriously (which he in fact shouldn't - it's an OBAR bid), you won't have much trouble because opps will hardly ever be in a position to double you for penalties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chamaco Posted March 23, 2005 Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 I am only a small fish here (not even advanced :huh: ) among these stars and expert, so I would like to ask the strong players to comment the following reasonings. As far I can tell, it seems that *prudence* is the primary factor in the reasoning here. QUESTION TO THE PASSERS I understand the prudence of passers.However, I think that the expectation that "pard will reopen bidding our values" is expecting too much, bacause of the shape. If this hand screams prudence, balancer with 8-9 hcp and xxx in their suit should pass anyways, in the same name of prudence (xxx in opps suit usually spells trouble). If any action can be taken, it can be taken only by us.So, IMO, it is the last chance to compete.So I think that passers should accept that if they pass, the auction is more than likely to end. Here I disagree with the possibility outlined by Ben that both 2H and 2S will be down: I am not a LOTT-bot :) but usually at this low level, the Law of total tricks rarely fails, and that possibility (2H and 2S down) is definitely not LOTT-compliant. QUESTION TO THE DOUBLERS My understanding is that doublers acknowledge this is the last train to compete.Double is more flexible, but I wonder in the cost -benefit anaklysis, and in the frequency, how often one bid will work better than the other. However, it seems to me that paradoxically, double may be more dangerous than 2S. The reasons: 1- we would like to be declarer in the final contract, so that our unsupported Ks and AJ of D are not led through 2- double gives up most hopes for a 5-3 (or even 5-2) fit unless pard has 4+ spades.With 4 cards in the minor, pard is likely to bid the minor.Even if pard bids spades, the contract is wrong sided. 3- the increased likelihood that pard bids a minor means an increased likelihood of playing for 9 tricks instead of 8 4- this is an OBAR situation, where i should bid as balancing, basically bidding as if I had a K more: if I were in the REAL balancing seat, would I bid 2S or double ?Personally I'd bid 2S. On balance, it seems to me that 2S would avoid major disasters and end up with a positive choice in most hands whare pard's support is at least xx, because it keeps bidding lower and rightside the contract. As fa as frequency, I think most of the times pard will have support for spades, the more so in these sequence. It is also true that, in the rare case where this assumption fails, we can go down a lot (assuming opps settle for doubling at the 2-level when they have a fit, even rarer case). So it seems a matter of magnitude-frequency analysis and form of scoring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walddk Posted March 23, 2005 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 QUESTION TO THE DOUBLERS My understanding is that doublers acknowledge this is the last train to compete.Double is more flexible, but I wonder in the cost -benefit analysis, and in the frequency, how often one bid will work better than the other. However, it seems to me that paradoxically, double may be more dangerous than 2S unless pard has 4+ spades.With 4 cards in the minor, pard is likely to bid the minor.Even if pard bids spades, the contract is wrong sided. Since I am one of the doublers, if I bid at all, I would like to explain why I think double is better than 2♠: 1. It keeps all unbid suits in play. 2♠ is unilateral. 2. The quality of my spade suit is such that I do not want to insist on spades. I am open to suggestions from partner. 3. As I have pointed out earlier, spades are not necessarily dead and buried even if I double. Partner will often bid a 3-card suit if he is weak, i.e. 3334, 3343, 3244. 4. Opps may even have 9 hearts between them. In that case there is a good chance that partner has 5 in one of the minors if he only has 3 spades. 3253, 3235. If he has less than 3 spades, he has 5+ in a minor as a certainty. .... I am not saying that 2♠ is wrong, I am not even saying that double and/or pass are right. I am trying to argue for the way I look at the problem. I respect your views, Chamaco, and I like the way you are reasoning. Most of us agree that this is a real problem hand. That is what makes bridge so fascinating. There is no obvious solution to all problems. That is basically all we must accept. Taking a view is fine if you have been through all the advantages and disadvantages. It may turn out that one's view didn't work out in real life, but that doesn't make it a wrong view from a subjective perspective; perhaps not even if you look at it as objectively as possible. Roland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chamaco Posted March 23, 2005 Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 Most of us agree that this is a real problem hand. That is what makes bridge so fascinating. There is no obvious solution to all problems. That is basically all we must accept. Taking a view is fine if you have been through all the advantages and disadvantages. It may turn out that one's view didn't work out in real life, but that doesn't make it a wrong view from a subjective perspective; perhaps not even if you look at it as objectively as possible. Thanks Roland, I was not advertising my view as the only one, just "thinking aloud", asking the opinion of better players. :huh: I like this forum becuse it is an invaluable chance for players like me to get feedback from you sttrong players (this will arrely occur in most real life clubs). So thanks a lot for taking your time to comment my "thinking aloud" ! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walddk Posted March 23, 2005 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 The hand came up in a strong club in Copenhagen, Denmark, about a week ago. It's not really interesting what was right or wrong, much more interesting that of 8 players with that hand, where the bidding went 1♥ pass 2♥, 5 bid 2♠, 3 doubled and none passed. It's not easy to pass a 14 count I suppose. Roland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandal Posted March 23, 2005 Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 The hand came up in a strong club in Copenhagen, Denmark, about a week ago. It's not really interesting what was right or wrong, much more interesting that of 8 players with that hand, where the bidding went 1♥ pass 2♥, 5 bid 2♠, 3 doubled and none passed. It's not easy to pass a 14 count I suppose. Roland Once upon a time,probably in 1979 I learned not to countthe likes of Kx if my LHO had opened that suit. I would be much more comfortable bidding 2S or dbl with K109xxAxAJxQxx I also "know" that what I say here,doesn't always reflecton reality,meaning I'm not at all sure what I would do atthe table. :) Frode [Edit: It was in 1977] hehe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted March 23, 2005 Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 It's not easy to pass a 14 count I suppose. Especially when points rate to split 20-20, giving pard a 6-count and long hearts, and consequently an obvious pass to 2H. If you pass 2H, you're basically selling out. Pass is masterminding that 2H will fail. Talk about unilaterality... :) Opps will play their 8 or 9 card fit at the 2-level. Theory and experience both know how they are bound to get a good score. You HAVE to bid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walddk Posted March 23, 2005 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 Theory and experience both know how they are bound to get a good score. You HAVE to bid. Well, perhaps you are thinking too much in MP strategy. At pairs I would bid, surely, but I still doubt that it's clearcut to bid at IMPs. Minus 800 points later it's not easy to tell your team-mates: "But I HAD to bid". You will lose the occasional 6 IMPs by passing, I agree, but you don't really have to give 12 away. For the record, I am a subscriber to "rather run the active risk than the passive one", but that is not the same as saying that you are not allowed to take stock and consider the different options. Pass is certainly a reasonable option here. Roland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flytoox Posted March 23, 2005 Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 in some recent vugraph, roland declared himself amazed by the fact that people overcall with such " rotten " hands, particularly the italians if i remind well, and get away with it. I was referring to the apparently modern style of overcalling on very bad suits, i.e. 10xxxx, Jxxxx and the like. That works for the Italians among others it seems, but they only do this at the 1-level at least. On the actual hand I am pretty sure that not even one Italian would overcall at the 2-level vulnerable if spades had been Jxxxx. I have a feeling that the majority would choose double rather than 2♠ if they bid with the hand in my first post. Roland I would say dbl is far worse than 2S. If 2S is hacked, you will be hacked whatever you do. But 2S still gives me chance to redbl and we may find a 5-3 minor fit. If you dbl, pd will not bid 2S almost 100% and he will be forced to bid a 4-card suit minor and you will play a 4-3 fit minor at three level. I remembered Lawrence said sth like: when you have 5-card spade, bid it. Of course he is not saying it in the exact context. But I think the principle still applys here. I think double with 5 card spade is a very bad practice. If it is heart suit and opps bid 1S and raises to 2S then that is another story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted March 23, 2005 Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 Interesting regarding overcalls. My current partner who used to partner Nicola Smith for 20 years has told me to loosen up my overcalls, and I thought I played a freewheeling style anyway. He said that Nicola said that it was imperative to bid a 5 card major at the 1 level if you had one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted March 23, 2005 Report Share Posted March 23, 2005 Well, perhaps you are thinking too much in MP strategy. At pairs I would bid, surely, but I still doubt that it's clearcut to bid at IMPs. Minus 800 points later it's not easy to tell your team-mates: "But I HAD to bid". You will lose the occasional 6 IMPs by passing, I agree, but you don't really have to give 12 away. For the record, I am a subscriber to "rather run the active risk than the passive one", but that is not the same as saying that you are not allowed to take stock and consider the different options. Pass is certainly a reasonable option here. Well, it is my experience that be it matchpoins or IMPS, if you don't play an attacking game, constantly putting on the pressure, you lose. I can hardly believe I go for -800 here (at best a 5% chance), but it's a near-certainty for me that I go -110/140 if I pass. The only honest risk here, as Ben more or less showed, is pard taking you too seriously. But that's not an issue on a seasoned pard'ship. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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