Another Queen Guess

[eagles123]

[hv=pc=n&s=saj954hj76dk54ck9&n=skt82h8daqcaq5432&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1cp1sp4hp4np5sp6sppp]266|200[/hv]

 

me and partner discussed the auction after, we were both a bit rusty and are both on this forum so go easy :) of course there are mistakes in the bidding but i give the auction as it happened incase it alters your desicion

 

anyway, it goes ♥ A 8 4 2

♦ 7 A 6 4

 

is there any reason to play trumps one way or the other?

 

thanks

 

Eagles

[KurtGodel]

I would cash the ace first, but still play for the drop. I don't think there's much to go on, but if you were looking at Qxxx of trumps you'd probably cash an ace if you had one. You can argue until the cows come home about this one. You could say that because West has led an ace they might have Qxx, you could say that because West didn't lead from club shortness he doesn't have it - so he has more clubs so he has fewer trumps, you could say that because East didn't make a lightner double he is marked with at least some cards in the plain suits, so he has less room for trumps. But all in all, you are missing 9 hearts and 13 points, if somebody had shape and hearts, they may well have bid, I would say that spades are probably 2-2.

 

I think you'll just get bogged down over thinking. I think it's too big a position a take to finesse (and that's saying something given how close playing for the drop/finessing is), so you should just concentrate on which 4-0 break you think is more likely.

[PhilG007]

[hv=pc=n&s=saj954hj76dk54ck9&n=skt82h8daqcaq5432&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=1cp1sp4hp4np5sp6sppp]266|200[/hv]

 

me and partner discussed the auction after, we were both a bit rusty and are both on this forum so go easy :) of course there are mistakes in the bidding but i give the auction as it happened incase it alters your desicion

 

anyway, it goes ♥ A 8 4 2

♦ 7 A 6 4

 

is there any reason to play trumps one way or the other?

 

thanks

 

Eagles

 

You must play off ♠AK and hope the Q falls. You've already lost one trick and thus have been

forced to put all your eggs in one basket. It's a case of now or never...all or nothing...do or die....

The old bridge adage about "8 ever 9 never" is perfectly sound. If the Q ♠doesn't drop...too bad. The operation was

successful...but the patient died :rolleyes:

[alok c]

Small spade to K.

[Jinksy]

I don't think there's much to go on, but if you were looking at Qxxx of trumps you'd probably cash an ace if you had one. You can argue until the cows come home about this one. You could say that because West has led an ace they might have Qxx

 

I think you'd cash the A with more hope of setting the contract with these, but even with xx of trumps, the A lead would look appealing from most holdings to me. Maybe least so from a short suit - Ax, Axx or similar - but I'd prob still do it unless I had a long side suit and hoped to give P a first round ruff (unlikely here, since if it were clubs I'd trust in partner's lack of Lightner X).

 

you could say that because West didn't lead from club shortness he doesn't have it

 

It's pretty unusual to lead a singleton against a slam holding working keycard. You get all the usual risk, and very little benefit.

 

- so he has more clubs so he has fewer trumps, you could say that because East didn't make a lightner double he is marked with at least some cards in the plain suits, so he has less room for trumps.

 

Yeah.

 

But all in all, you are missing 9 hearts and 13 points, if somebody had shape and hearts, they may well have bid, I would say that spades are probably 2-2.

 

Does that follow? E had a much easier overcall than W, so I would have thought it points to greater non-trump-length (and hence shorter trumps) with W.

 

I think you'll just get bogged down over thinking. I think it's too big a position a take to finesse (and that's saying something given how close playing for the drop/finessing is), so you should just concentrate on which 4-0 break you think is more likely.

 

I don't understand. Do you mean to try to minimise undertricks?

 

Based on the above (primarily on E's failure to overcall, and the relative HCP shortage in our hands), I feel like the best trump play might be to finesse E for the trump Q. But on this sort of hand there might be other considerations. If trumps are 4-0, we won't be able to ruff 2♥s and still pick the QT up, and if Cs are also 4-1, we might have communication problems setting them up. On those grounds, maybe playing for the drop is better even if it is marginally worse in isolation.

[gszes]

If I were looking at 4 spades to the Q I would definitely want to shorten trumps in dummy since the only way declarer can pick up my Q is to lead small to the (8 or 10) on the first round of trumps. That is a huge position to take. That means if either opp has 4 spades it is east. If you were east looking at a trump void and the heart K would you not encourage a heart continuation since it appears dummy promised the trump Q and it is missing? Surely you would try to protect your partner? That is a LOT of evidence that only rho can have 4 spades.

 

It is then technically correct to bang down the spade K and when both follow and 40 becomes impossible once rho plays a second small spade we should play for the 22 break. With precious little information to work with (neither opp bid so their distribution is not too radical) we gave ourselves an extra chance by planning to finesse against the only player that realistically could have 4 trumps. Be happy you came up with that concept and if it works fine if not life is like that.

[Lovera]

You must play off ♠AK and hope the Q falls. You've already lost one trick and thus have been

forced to put all your eggs in one basket. It's a case of now or never...all or nothing...do or die....

The old bridge adage about "8 ever 9 never" is perfectly sound. If the Q ♠doesn't drop...too bad. The operation was

successful...but the patient died :rolleyes:

As i have said in 6♠ at Relaxed Club the Blackwood theory about distribution on according with Simmetry Law is : if in the shorter suit (between dummy and partner) you have four cards divided 2-2 or five cards divided 3-2 rescute A and K; impassed if in the shorter suit you have minus of four cards or four cards divided 3-1 or 4-0.(Lovera)

[helene_t]

What does East's failure to double 4♥ mean? Some players would double with ♥KQ and with AQ W probably wouldn't lead the suit. Besides, E appears to have discouraged hearts. Yeah I know, it is possible they play suit pref (or count) in this situation but who knows. All in all I think it is quite likely that W had ♥AK in which case he would always lead it. So I wouldn't read too much into the lead and I would just play for the drop. As George says, however, we should cash the king first.

[Lovera]

So standing thing (in post #7) could be that E has 3-5-3-2 and W 1-4-5-3 ? Is it not that need to find where impasse must work ? For dropping must be excluded 3 (or more) before and without other indications (as reading distribution) it more probable to impasse.

[mr1303]

What Helene said. Play anti-percentage when you have better information that it's the right thing to do, and that isn't the case here. I'm leading the A of hearts on this auction most of the time regardless here.