Do you finesse?

[shevek]

[hv=pc=n&s=saqt9865hdkqtcqt9&n=sj43haq6dj6543cj4&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=pp4sppp]266|200[/hv]

 

West leads ♥J, playing "standard" leads.

Do you call for ♥Q?

It's IMPs.

Is it closer than 13%?

[Vampyr]

Yes I do finesse, which is why I play the Ace on this trick. I have no other entry to allow me to play a spade from dummy.

 

I'm afraid I don't see the possible gain from playing ♥Q at trick 1.

[ezyang]

Well... the HQ gains when the opening lead is from KJT AND the spade finesse is off. Which is silly, just rise the ace.

[MrAce]

Actually there is a little more to it. If you play A of ♥ you are planning to take ♠ finesse. Let's see possible spade breaks

 

Kxx-void-->%11

Kx-x --->%26

K-xx --->%13

 

Void-Kxx--->%11

x-Kx---------->%26

xx-K----------->%13

 

 

Assume you took ♥ finesse and it won, you are in good shape.

Assume you took ♥ finesse and lost, you are still in good shape when K of spades is singleton on either side.

 

Playing the A and taking spade finesse wins only when spade K is on and not stiff (with stiff on, other line also wins, note that other line wins also when K is off side stiff) The success of this line totally depends on where the spade K is and that it is not singleton. Finessing ♥ depends on where the ♥K is + some more.

 

I think taking the ♥ finesse is better w/o the analysis of the lead. I think this will come down to how likely the J of ♥ is from KJT.

 

At the table I would take ♥ finesse and when it does not succeed, I try to go dummy with a club ruff for the spade finesse. If opponents do not cooperate and shift to diamonds in a fashion that i can not use ♦ J as an entry and making me face a diamond ruff danger, then I would just cash ♠A.

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=saqt9865hdkqtcqt9&n=sj43haq6dj6543cj4&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=pp4sppp]266|200|

 

West leads ♥J, playing "standard" leads.

Do you call for ♥Q?

It's IMPs.

Is it closer than 13%?

[/hv]

IMO, it depends on how likely it would be for LHO to lead the ♥J, when holding ♥K,

The ♥ finesse line succeeds unless RHO has ♥K and either defender has a guarded ♠K.

Putting up ♥A and taking the ♠ finesse succeeds unless LHO has ♠K.

In the remaining cases both lines succeed or both fail.

[Vampyr]

IMO, it depends on how likely it would be for LHO to lead the ♥J, when holding ♥K,

The ♥ finesse line succeeds unless RHO has ♥K and either defender has a guarded ♠K.

Putting up ♥A and taking the ♠ finesse succeeds unless LHO has ♠K.

In the remaining cases both lines succeed or both fail.

 

Well, it seemed obvious to me that you should use your entry to finesse spades, since you may not be able to do this if you finesse the heart. I didn't think that finessing the heart could have an advantage over this; now I am not sure.

[alok c]

HA is useless unless you win first trick with HQ.You can always go to dummy by ruffing club.Finnessing at least gives a chance for discarding.

[DAVDJ1]

Take A!H finesse !S 100%

[PhilG007]

[hv=pc=n&s=saqt9865hdkqtcqt9&n=sj43haq6dj6543cj4&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=pp4sppp]266|200[/hv]

 

West leads ♥J, playing "standard" leads.

Do you call for ♥Q?

It's IMPs.

Is it closer than 13%?

 

You must rise at once with A♥ and lead J♠ As you have 3 unavoidable losers in the

minor suits,you are not going to make this contract unless East has precisely ♠Kxx

Declarer will then make 7 ♠ tricks 2 ♦tricks and 1♣

At MPs it would pay to take the ♥ finesse at trick 1 but at IMPs the safety of the

contract is sacrosanct.

[MrAce]

You must rise at once with A♥ and lead J♠ As you have 3 unavoidable losers in the

minor suits,you are not going to make this contract unless East has precisely ♠Kxx

Declarer will then make 7 ♠ tricks 2 ♦tricks and 1♣

At MPs it would pay to take the ♥ finesse at trick 1 but at IMPs the safety of the

contract is sacrosanct.

 

LOL

[PhilKing]

Oh my! I blush for those that do not see how the heart finesse can gain.

 

The chances of the heart finesse depend on LHO. Good players tend to lead aggressively against a 4M opener, but that should not really apply when it is opened third in hand. As against that, with Kx KJT9 xxx Kxxx, the lead is still reasonable.

[Aardv]

If you rise ♥A and take the spade finesse, you will go off if the finesse loses, and make if the finesse wins. 50%.

 

If you finesse ♥Q and it wins, you will make almost always (unless you lose a spade trick and a diamond ruff). Call that 98%.

 

If you finesse ♥Q and it loses, you are not in practice going to get to dummy with a club ruff. If you play a club they'll switch to diamonds (what else, with ♠K onside), occasionally getting a diamond ruff and otherwise threatening a ruff. Are you going to play another club? So you might as well lay down ♠A at once. That's 26%.

 

If you estimate the probability of LHO having ♥K and for this lead as p, you should finesse if 0.98p + 0.26 > 0.5. Roughly, if p > 0.25.

[correction: you should finesse if 0.98p + 0.26(1-p) > 0.5. That is, if p > 1/3]

 

 

What do you think LHO would have led from ♥KJ10(x)(x) and small cards in one of the minors? If a heart, you should finesse. If a minor, then the heart finesse is playing for a specific hand (♠K, ♥KJ10, ♦A, ♣A or ♣K. (Would he have doubled 4♠ with that hand?)

[jodepp]

I have enjoyed reading all the erudite explanations of 'line A versus line B'. Doesn't this hand simply boil down to 'extra chances'?

 

If you rise with the ♥A, you succeed or fail on the spade finesse; if you finesse the ♥Q, you succeed when it holds (when you get two club pitches as a reward) or when you can drop the stiff ♠K (or, if you wish, you could try to reach dummy with a third round club ruff to finesse in trumps). Surely finessing on the opening lead is superior.

[Vampyr]

Oh my! I blush for those that do not see how the heart finesse can gain.

 

It can gain, but often enough to give up the chance of the spade finesse?

 

The chances of the heart finesse depend on LHO. Good players tend to lead aggressively against a 4M opener, but that should not really apply when it is opened third in hand. As against that, with Kx KJT9 xxx Kxxx, the lead is still reasonable.

 

The likelihood of leader holding a hand such as this is difficult to judge.

[case_no_6]

Yes, I do. But I take the finesse in spades, not in hearts.

 

This is a guess. It might work to play the Queen at trick 1 and, if it succeeds, you can pitch two clubs, play a spade to the Ace and another spade, losing at most 1 spade, 1 club, and 1 diamond. The alternative is to take advantage of the heart lead as your sure entry to dummy so you can take a spade finesse.

 

It's a guess, but my gut tells me that West is less likely to have led the Jack from a heart holding including both the King and Jack than East is to have the King of spades.

 

It is also worth noting that, if you do play Queen at trick 1 and it is covered the King, you still might make when East or West holds the stiff King of spades. You will look brilliant when West holds the stiff King, because those who take my suggested line will go down (losing 2 clubs, 1 diamond, and at least 1 spade).

[shevek]

Many imponderables in the heart finesse.

For first estimate, give West a 4-card heart suit.

Then ♥J from ♥JTxx may be seen as a more attractive lead than ♥KJTx.

Hard to judge since West might lead low from ♥JT32, though not JT82.

 

The main point is that ♥JTxx is 3 times as common as KJTx. (since 7C2 = 21)

Admittedly, this discrepancy decreases when we give West longer hearts.

So the heart hook is less than 50%. How much less? There are better ways to spend my time!

 

Say you finesse ♥Q and have to ruff East's king.

♠A now is 26% to drop the stiff king, so playing a club looks better.

 

However, as Aardv and others noted, you risk ruffs.

East might have a stiff diamond, or maybe ♣H-x and ♠K.

The bigger risk is East having a doubleton small diamond. Then you are likely doomed.

[GrahamJson]

As W did not lead a club honour he is unlikely to hold AK, so assume E has at least one honour, possibly both. He could also hold DA. So if the H finesse is losing it is unlikely that E also holds the SK. OK, it's all a bit iffy, but it suggests that taking the finesse at trick one does have a lot going for it. Don't forget E is a passed hand, and with ten hearts outstanding could hold length, so might easily open 2H with HK and a club honour, or 1H with an additional honour.

[steve2005]

My inclination would be to rise Ace as I think unlikey to lead from KJT but I may be wrong. With so many trump the drop isn't horrible which makes this a close call, the finessers can easily lose to offside singleton K. So, if you need a swing this is certainly a good proposition to try the queen.

[WesleyC]

Mostly this hand comes down to table feel and knowing your opponents. The simple answer is that if LHO rarely leads away from a king, taking a losing finesse at trick 1 is obviously wrong.

 

But against most opponents, the ♥J lead only somewhat diminishes the chance that they also hold the ♥K. From a hand like [Kx KJTxx Axx Kxx] or [x KJTx xxxxx Kxx] the Jh looks completely normal. Based on this, I think taking the heart finesse and then falling back on the stiff ♠K feels like slightly the better option, but at the table my gut might convince me to go the other way.

 

However, especially against non-expert opponents, I think that trying the ♥Q and (assuming it loses) ruffing and ducking the ♣9 feels like an even better chance. Although this line might expose you to defeat some of the time, finding the winning defence will (usually) be far from obvious. There are plenty of defenders that can't overcome the instinct to play back a trump and cut down ruffs. It might even be possible to come up with a layout (from their point of view) where that is the winning defence.

 

Finally even if RHO does work out to win the club and switches to a diamond, after ♦K, ♦A the ♦J might turn into an entry.

[WesleyC]

The main point is that ♥JTxx is 3 times as common as KJTx. (since 7C2 = 21)

 

You're using false logic here. (Ignoring the lead implications) There is a slight bias towards the ♥K being in East's hand, (based on the JT of hearts being marked in the West hand) but it's nothing like 3 times more likely. The a-priori chance of KJT to any number is 11% and JT to any number is 13%.

[gszes]

Heart Q

 

Even as you say it, it seems wrong to purposely risk our 100% shot at 50% but flying with the ace is short sighted for several reasons.

 

1. KJT is a very reasonable attacking lead given the bidding.

2. If 1 has indeed happened we have 2 quick club pitches and no longer need the spade finesse (I would not take it anyway).

3. If the heart loses things are not as grim as we make them seem. We are pretty sure rho has at least 1 top club honor and the heart K and we sort of need them to hold the spade king. That means lho has to hold the dia A and I think it would be nearly impossible for lho to rise with the ace if we can play the 10 toward the J. That means there is a really good chance the dia J will serve as the entry we need to get to dummy to take the spade finesse. That means the heart Q serves its best purpose by trying to secure our contract at trick 1. This can be ruined of course if rho wins the heart K and returns a dia and lho has the intestinal fortitude to duck our dia K (not an easy thing to do).

4. We may still be able to reach dummy via the club ruff route which is how the other declarer will have to go w/o the benefit of a heart lead.

5. Taking the successful heart finesse means we no longer have to depend on the spade finesse so treating it as a lower priority is generally wrong but more specifically wrong in this case with the fog of war so much on our side.

6. Who knows but by starting with the heart Q we may find out rho started with both club honors (along with the heart K) and thus it would be impossible for rho to also hold the spade K indicating we need to play for the drop vs finesse:)))))))))

[goingoren]

we hold the space ace and we are void in hearts so if RHO rises with the king of heats we should then rerise with the 5 of spades

[KurtGodel]

Finally even if RHO does work out to win the club and switches to a diamond, after ♦K, ♦A the ♦J might turn into an entry.

The person with ♦Axx will duck one round after seeing their partner's count signal. The person with ♦Ax, will win and play another diamond, they might need to be careful about keeping an entry to their partner's hand in clubs though, this requires the defense to be wide awake.

 

Either way, there is no hope of getting to dummy by playing diamonds, or by ruffing clubs. So the problem is actually simple:

Which is the better shot 1) Opening leader has K♥ or the K♠ is single. 2) The spade finesse.

Call the probability of the king being onside p. Then line one succeeds: p + (1-p)0.26 = 0.74p + 0.26, whereas the finesse works 0.5.

 

So if you think the heart finesse works 32% of the time (or better) you should take it.

[WesleyC]

The person with ♦Axx will duck one round after seeing their partner's count signal. The person with ♦Ax, will win and play another diamond, they might need to be careful about keeping an entry to their partner's hand in clubs though, this requires the defense to be wide awake.

 

Either way, there is no hope of getting to dummy by playing diamonds, or by ruffing clubs.

 

I agree with your maths regarding the ♥ finesse vs spade finesse. Versus a perfect opponent I agree that ♥K onside plus singleton King is probably the percentage line.

 

However I strongly disagree with your assumption that this hand is trivially easy to defend. My only evidence is the fact that I've failed to defend accurately on hundreds of similar hands.

 

Even playing against an expert defender, being a declarer that is occasionally prepared to take a sub-optimal line in the hope of creating an error if a great reputation to have. Kranyak's declarer play in the team trials is an excellent example of this.

[zillahandp]

By the time you get to dummy with club ruff you have three losers and depend on spade finesse. If qh wins you dont need spade finesse so this is extra chance so qh correct