What is the textbook lead?

[Finch]

IMPs, KO match against very strong opponents

 

[hv=pc=n&w=sha9632daq62ca982&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=1c3sd4s4np5s6s7hpp7sdppp]133|200[/hv]

 

1C= natural or balanced outside the NT range

4NT = both minors (longer clubs) or a good 5H bid

 

What do you lead and why?

[Jinksy]

I'll try A♦. I doubt the king will be in south's hand, and if P is something like 5-6 in the round suits, he might be 1-1 in the others, or 1507, 2506 etc. I don't want try the other suits first in case he's the latter and I blow an entry to my hand.

 

Underleading an ace is presumably the killer lead for some reason, but too subtle for me.

[eagles123]

I'll try 2 of clubs to try and attract a diamond switch but honestly I have no idea, great problem Frances and congrats on your win!

[kuhchung]

Haven't seen this one in a textbook before. Have I been reading the wrong ones?

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&w=sha9632daq62ca982&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=1c3sd4s4np5s6s7hpp7sdppp]133|200|

1C= natural or balanced outside the NT range

4NT = both minors (longer clubs) or a good 5H bid

What do you lead and why?[/hv]

Congratulations, Frances! IMO ♥9 (suggesting ♦ values) = 10, ♥A = 8, ♣A = 6, ♦A=5.

 

 

 

[Aardv]

We might want to play a trump or possibly a diamond through next, so let's put partner in. Partner must have ♥K and ♣K, and probably ♦K as well.

 

There's no reason to place declarer with a void anywhere, so let's assume he hasn't got one. There's every reason to place dummy with a singleton or void somewhere, so let's not lead that suit (if only we knew which) lest it facilitate ruffs in dummy.

 

So my answer is that we should underlead an ace to put partner in. We shouldn't underlead hearts in case dummy's short there. We shouldn't underlead clubs for the same reason. And we shouldn't underlead diamonds in case partner hasn't got the king.

 

By a process of elimination I'll lead a trump.

[alok c]

It appears they will be trying to establish a long side suit in norths hand(presumably diamond judging my hand & bidding ) by xruffing to discard loosing clubs. So CA it is.

[Trinidad]

The textbook lead is a trump.

 

Unfortunately, we don't have any of those, but partner probably does. So let's get him in. I would try the ♥9. (I think the opponents are less likely to be void in hearts than in clubs.)

 

Rik

[mikeh]

What strikes me as remarkable is partner's bidding. We don't need anything like our hand for our double of the overcall, yet partner bid 4N and then committed to 7H when holding no Aces other than maybe the spade Ace.

 

It isn't easy to construct the hand. A hand that sprang to mind was Ax. KQxxx. Void. KQxxxx

 

On such a construction, cutting down ruffs won't help, because the opps are going to establish the diamond suit. We need to score our own ruff, and if partner is 3=4=0=6, two ruffs.

 

I am not saying that I am sure of anything here, but I will lead the unpopular Diamond A,. If nothing else, it is the suit in which the opps are least likely to be ruffling if they do need to embark on a cross-ruff, so if I am wrong in my construction,I may be able to switch. I think this is a big loser only if declarer had the K which seems against the odds.

[ahydra]

mikeh, would partner not have passed to suggest a possible 7NT contract if he had the spade A? I agree the hand might be similar otherwise. But then I would hate to lead DA and catch partner's singleton DK (or even DQ) :/

 

I'll back nige1 and Trinidad and try the H9 (second choice CA).

 

ahydra

[mikeh]

mikeh, would partner not have passed to suggest a possible 7NT contract if he had the spade A? I agree the hand might be similar otherwise. But then I would hate to lead DA and catch partner's singleton DK (or even DQ) :/

 

I'll back nige1 and Trinidad and try the H9 (second choice CA).

 

ahydra

It would be a brave soul who suggested 7N with a diamond void....on the auction both opps are leading diamonds against 7N :P Yes, I know only one of them is allowed to.

 

Meanwhile I am worried about[hv=pc=n&s=skjt8632hj7d9754c&w=sha9632daq62ca982&n=sq975h5dkjt83c654&e=sa4hkqt84dckqjt73]399|300[/hv]

 

Now, yes, we can make 7N. So if we are going to assume that 7N can't make, what about partner being Kx KQJxx void KQJxxx?

 

Now the heart 9 gets us only 1 defensive trick. The heart A gets us 2, and the diamond Ace gets us 3.

 

 

Edit: I think the key here is to consider partner's likely actions. How can he bid 7H with none of our Aces and a 4 card heart suit? How can he even bid 4N with that holding? I think it 90% or more that he has 5 hearts, which means at least 6 clubs. No way do the white v red opps hold 13 spades on this auction....even with a blah hand, with some 6322, north would surely do more than 4S at his first call, and at this heat, N might be looking at 7 of them opposite a 6 card pre-empt!

 

So partner has 'some' spades, and the most logical number consistent with all that we have seen is 2. That leaves partner with a diamond void.

 

I wasn't as confident when I first posted as I have become since. I now am strongly in favour of the diamond A lead. if I were nige1, I'd say diamond Ace 10, heart Ace 7, heart 9 5, anything else 3.

[Trinidad]

Meanwhile I am worried about[hv=pc=n&s=skjt8632hj7d9754c&w=sha9632daq62ca982&n=sq975h5dkjt83c654&e=sa4hkqt84dckqjt73]399|300[/hv]

Would you bid 3♠ with that South hand (at favorable vul, at IMPs)?

 

If my partner would bid 3♠, I would call the TD and tell him that my partner's 3♠ bid was insufficient. ;)

 

Rik

[MrAce]

What strikes me as remarkable is partner's bidding. We don't need anything like our hand for our double of the overcall, yet partner bid 4N and then committed to 7H when holding no Aces other than maybe the spade Ace.

 

It isn't easy to construct the hand. A hand that sprang to mind was Ax. KQxxx. Void. KQxxxx

 

On such a construction, cutting down ruffs won't help, because the opps are going to establish the diamond suit. We need to score our own ruff, and if partner is 3=4=0=6, two ruffs.

 

I am not saying that I am sure of anything here, but I will lead the unpopular Diamond A,. If nothing else, it is the suit in which the opps are least likely to be ruffling if they do need to embark on a cross-ruff, so if I am wrong in my construction,I may be able to switch. I think this is a big loser only if declarer had the K which seems against the odds.

 

This was almost exactly what i was about to post about partner's holding. He did not even know I hold 5 card hearts. So he probably has 5 card hearts himself.

 

But my likely constructions are 2416 2506 3406. I put 2416 just incase pd may be bidding 7 with an anticipation of 7♠ save.. And/or when we bid 5♠, which shows obviously a grandslam interest in hearts, (with COS we could bid 5 NT I assume) then pd under pressure, may as well placed us with 3 key cards in order to justify 5♠. Can we really have less than 3 keys for this bid? In this context he may even have a Axx KQJT x KQJTx.

 

Would you bid 3♠ with that South hand (at favorable vul, at IMPs)?

 

I would.

[mikeh]

Would you bid 3♠ with that South hand (at favorable vul, at IMPs)?

 

If my partner would bid 3♠, I would call the TD and tell him that my partner's 3♠ bid was insufficient. ;)

 

Rik

Do you seriously think that I am trying to pinpoint the exact holdings for anybody? I am concerned about a family of hands, of which the one posted is an illustration. Maybe you would bid 4♠, frankly I don't care. Would some strong players bid only 3♠? I believe that the answer is a 'yes', but if you disagree, move one spade from S to North,and send a diamond back to S.

 

The point isn't about the opps cards...it is about partner's hand, and the optimal defence based on his holdings.

[nige1]

What strikes me as remarkable is partner's bidding. We don't need anything like our hand for our double of the overcall, yet partner bid 4N and then committed to 7H when holding no Aces other than maybe the spade Ace.

It isn't easy to construct the hand. A hand that sprang to mind was Ax. KQxxx. Void. KQxxxx

On such a construction, cutting down ruffs won't help, because the opps are going to establish the diamond suit. We need to score our own ruff, and if partner is 3=4=0=6, two ruffs.

I am not saying that I am sure of anything here, but I will lead the unpopular Diamond A,. If nothing else, it is the suit in which the opps are least likely to be ruffling if they do need to embark on a cross-ruff, so if I am wrong in my construction,I may be able to switch. I think this is a big loser only if declarer had the K which seems against the odds.

Arguments by Mikeh and Mr Ace persuade me that my earlier view was ill-thought

• Partner is at least 56 in the round suits.
• Partner is likely to be void in ♦s.
• Hence ♦A is your best shot..

[Aardv]

If you think partner's got a diamond void, why not lead a low diamond? Declarer might have ♦Kxx.

[Finch]

Don't you think Ax KQTxx - KQJ10xx is a bit good for a 4NT bid?

[mikeh]

Don't you think Ax KQTxx - KQJ10xx is a bit good for a 4NT bid?

yes

 

which is why I also, albeit later, suggested Kx instead of Ax and I don't think Kx is too good, altho in fairness my view isn't very important...if E-W are an established partnership, their views are somewhat more relevant :D

 

Also take away the club Q (preserving the length) and maybe it is more reasonable.

 

Again, when putting up hands I don't imply that the exact hand is anything more than illustrative of my concerns. Here, the concern was about how to maximize the defence should partner be void in diamonds, which seems to me to be possible: I remain of the view that partner is very likely short, and that such shortness will often be a void.

 

Edit: In fairness, when I first posted I made the round suits KQxxx KQxxxx, and only made the clubs solid later, and that was an artefact of the hand editor filling in the club suit in the East hand after I casually made the suit 6=0=4=3, with the East hand going in last. Admittedly that hand with Ax void is still pretty hefty for 4N, but not (quite) as gross as making the clubs solid

[mikeh]

If you think partner's got a diamond void, why not lead a low diamond? Declarer might have ♦Kxx.

why do we care?

 

We are assured of being able to give two ruffs after leading the A, so how can declarer holding Kxx be of any importance at all? Unless you think partner has multiple natural spade tricks? Which I don't.

 

Meanwhile, if partner has a small diamond, which we can't rule out, underleading the Ace is going to be sub-optimal.

[PhantomSac]

Partners 7H bid without the ace of hearts or the ace of clubs or the ace of diamonds is impossible without either the DK or a diamond void. Thus I lead a low diamond.

 

If partner has bid 7H with KQJ KQJ in the round suits and a stiff diamond after opening and then showing a good 5H bid, more power to him I guess.

[MrAce]

Partners 7H bid without the ace of hearts or the ace of clubs or the ace of diamonds is impossible without either the DK or a diamond void. Thus I lead a low diamond.

 

If partner has bid 7H with KQJ KQJ in the round suits and a stiff diamond after opening and then showing a good 5H bid, more power to him I guess.

 

Although Mike and I and you seem to think alike on this hand about the shape, I neither would lead ♦ A nor small one. Tbh I would not be confident to lead small ♦. The point you make is very legit and logical, no doubt. But I'd probably lead small ♥ so pd can himself make the obvious lead of trumps. I for some reason almost always had hard time to take a precise shot like small ♦. Maybe because the people I play with are VERY VERY capable of bidding 7♥ with a stiff diamond w/o the K. Since I believe my 5♠ should have 3 keys. But I am not really strong on this, just my opinion.

[cherdano]

If partner has bid 7H with KQJ KQJ in the round suits and a stiff diamond after opening and then showing a good 5H bid, more power to him I guess.

He did not show a good 5H bid - not before bidding 7H, anyway.

[PhantomSac]

He did not show a good 5H bid - not before bidding 7H, anyway.

 

I don't understand what you mean. We know he has shown a good 5H bid and that was his intention when he started with 4N. What kind of good 5H bid is x KQJxx x KQJxxx? That looks like a 5H bid to me, it has zero first round controls.

 

But even if you have somehow bid 4N on this (maybe partner has 3 aces and out so it gets us to a slam!), why would you not at least just pass 6S when partner has made a grand slam try? If you need partner to have FOUR first round controls to make 7 I bet if you invite them to bid 7 they will do so even if they don't know whether you have hearts or diamonds.

 

Let's look at it another way, we had a hand that was presumably going to force to 7 after the 4N bid even if it was just the minors. We would bid 5S with a full ACE less than we had probably. So even with an ace more than we might have had, partner who had the options of X (pls don't bid), pass (bid if you'd like) and just bidding a grand, bid a grand himself.

 

It is absolutely inconceivable to me that he has no first round controls (or no relevant ones, the SA is not that useful opposite our already known first round spade control) and chose to just bid 7H himself.

[PhantomSac]

It's not even like he might just be playing poker r/w to induce a save, his partner has already announced a spade void and the other 2 suits are bid, a diamond lead will be coming, and someone with the ace of diamonds is not going to save. Not to mention we might be off like, another ace (I would think I would be well within my rights to bid 5S on --- xxxxx KQxx Axxx, that is a fantastic hand opposite a partner who is freely bidding to show either the minors or a *good* 5H bid. I mean a bad 5H bid is usually a pretty good hand, he is still voluntarily bidding at the 5 level opposite a partner who may not even have 4 hearts). That hand is off 2 aces. So it's not hard to imagine being off 1 lol.

[mikeh]

Justin:

 

what holding are you catering to with the low diamond lead?

 

Seems to me that the only holding where that can cost is Kxxx in declarer's hand, where we can, with a low lead, get two ruffs and sit back and wait for the AQ. Otoh, if partner has a stiff, and I agree that that is unlikely, we are going to be very sorry. So which is most likely? Kxxx in declarer or any singleton in partner? (Stiff King in partner probably makes no difference from stiff x, if we lead the A).