The Perfect Pstorm

[Phil]

W/r 3rd seat,p-p to you. You hold xxx xx xx KQJxxx.

 

Assuming you don't make the same call every time with a hand like this, what is the ratio that you will

 

A. Pass

B. Open 1C

C. Open 3C

D. Open 1N

E. Do something really off the wall like 1 of something else, 2N or 4C.

[TylerE]

Usually pass. 1NT maybe 2% of the time.

 

If the hand was like xxxx x xx KQJxx it's a much more interesting problem imo. This is not a great hand to psych on IMO.

[akwoo]

I bid 3♣ unless partner can't handle a joke or opponents regularly miss games they should bid in noncompetitive auctions. (In my world, both happen with enough frequency to mention it.) Otherwise I pass.

 

Even 1st seat w/r I'll be bidding 3♣ a fair amount of the time, though it won't be as automatic.

[WesleyC]

I would always open, usually just 3C.

 

Against a pair that doesn't have solid agreements, I might mess around with 1NT, particularly if they don't play a penalty double of 1NT. I wouldn't do this at random, it would be based on state of the match and my opinion of the opponents.

[MrAce]

3♣

[helene_t]

If I were going to psyche it would be 1S but I don't think I would ever do that. More likely 4c if I were desperate. But to be honest this is the clearest 3c I ever saw.

[PhilKing]

Against a weak pair, pretty much always 3♣. I would basically never psyche against a weak pair.

 

Against a good pair I would open 1NT for sure if they were playing a conventional defence. I might open 1♣ otherwise, since I don't want to tip my whole hand. The auction may well indicate that I am weak, so I get my lead director in without declarer getting to play double dummy.

 

edit: I forgot about 2NT, so 0 15 60 15 10

[gwnn]

0, 20, 80, 0.

[ycos]

0,0,95,5,0

[hrothgar]

W/r 3rd seat,p-p to you. You hold xxx xx xx KQJxxx.

 

Assuming you don't make the same call every time with a hand like this, what is the ratio that you will

 

A. Pass

B. Open 1C

C. Open 3C

D. Open 1N

E. Do something really off the wall like 1 of something else, 2N or 4C.

 

A. 0

B. 5%

C. 70%

D. 20%

E. 5%

[hrothgar]

W/r 3rd seat,p-p to you. You hold xxx xx xx KQJxxx.

 

Assuming you don't make the same call every time with a hand like this, what is the ratio that you will

 

A. Pass

B. Open 1C

C. Open 3C

D. Open 1N

E. Do something really off the wall like 1 of something else, 2N or 4C.

 

A. 0

B. 5%

C. 70%

D. 20%

E. 5%

[gwnn]

I was getting ready to applaud your cunning multi-layered mixed strategy when I saw that the two posts were in fact identical :P

[gszes]

MP

pass 15% Only if I think we need a top.

1c 2% Usually if I no longer care for my current CHO.

3c 85% We have nothing and since it is only 1 board the risk of getting slaughtered is minimized by winning a fair amount of the bidding contest hands when the opps misevaluate.

1N 0% If I really hated my CHO the thought might cross my mind before deciding to open 1c.

Other 3% Only if I am virtually certain we need a top and it will probably be 4c.

 

IMPS

 

pass 85% This hand has little good to say about it. Not a good sacrifice hand and slight wins at part score battles seems horribly wrong from a risk vs reward aspect.

1c 2% Usually if I no longer care for my current CHO.

3c 15% Only if we are in trouble.

1N 0% If I really hate my CHO the thought might cross my mind before deciding to open 1c.

other Only if we are in deep trouble and it will probably be 4c.

[helene_t]

Sorry George, I couldn't resist to quote Fox News:

 

http://peltiertech.com/images/2009-12/PalinPie01.png

[WesleyC]

MP

pass 15% Only if I think we need a top.

IMPS

pass 85% This hand has little good to say about it. Not a good sacrifice hand and slight wins at part score battles seems horribly wrong from

 

I think your strategy regarding IMPs vs MPs is backwards.

 

In 3rd seat, you know the opponents are extremely close to game. Playing IMPs i'm happy to gamble -300 vs -140 (-4 imps) against the chance of pushing them into the wrong game/slam and possibly picking up +12 IMPs.

 

However playing MPs you're dealing with the same situation without the implied IMP odds. -300 if they only have a partscore will be a bottom and pushing them to the wrong game/slam will be a top, but you're getting even money on the bet. So if anything you should be more conservative at MPs.

 

Regarding just this hand though, I would never consider passing 3rd/FAV at either form of scoring...

[neilkaz]

3♣ WTP at any form of scoring and with any partner.

[KurtGodel]

Pass: Absolutely never, people who pass hands like this are the sort that are complaining that they don't get cards often enough.

1C: Depends what system I am playing, I normally play that this doesn't really show clubs, so that's probably out. If I do happen to be playing better minor then I still wouldn't do this, I don't think it achieves much, sure it directs the lead, but partner doesn't take a minor suit bid so seriously.

3C: At matchpoints I will do this lots as it will get the lead in.

1NT: At IMPs or vs a pair I am comfortable psyching against in matchpoints.

I wish 2NT would have occurred to me. Must be a huge winner at IMPs.

[billw55]

3♣ WTP at any form of scoring and with any partner.

Agree.

 

I see people advocating a 1NT psyche surprisingly often. 15%, 20%, these are obviously high enough to establish a CPU.

 

 

[WesleyC]

I wish 2NT would have occurred to me. Must be a huge winner at IMPs.

 

Here's an interesting bidding question...

 

VUL vs NV

 

(P) P (2NT) P

(3C) P (P) ???

 

what does double mean?

 

I've played enough youth bridge to have been on both sides of this one!

[KurtGodel]

Here's an interesting bidding question...

 

VUL vs NV

 

(P) P (2NT) P

(3C) P (P) ???

 

what does double mean?

 

I've played enough youth bridge to have been on both sides of this one!

 

I think it probably has to be penalties as there is no guarantee that clubs is even opener's suit. Might be very difficult to bid with lots of clubs. Perhaps you could play it as takeout but still have 4C as natural. I think on this occasion I would pray that p just bids 3NT, as this is going to be very difficult for them to bid over and when it drifts four or five off we must have a good score. The game is up once I pass 3C and we haven't really gained anything, depending on what structure we play over 2NT I might just deny major length and try to play 3NT. I don't really want to play 4M though, as this might actually get doubled and I don't really want to go to 5C. If partner just smolens then I think we will be okay in 3NT, but if they have millions of major suit cards then we are in trouble. Likewise depending on what my treatment is for transfers I would consider doing what I can to just try and play 3NT. P has not managed to open a weak two at this vul so there is a very very good chance that if we complete we will just hear 3NT on the way back.

 

Having thought about it, I feel that at IMPs 2NT is probably the most +ev bid.

 

That being said I wouldn't try this against fish (apart from it being a bit mean) I have been doubled many a time opening 2NT by some random flat 18...

[Trinidad]

Sorry George, I couldn't resist to quote Fox News:

 

http://peltiertech.com/images/2009-12/PalinPie01.png

Ah!! The good old wedding cake chart!

 

Rik

[nige1]

W/r 3rd seat,p-p to you. You hold ♠ x x x ♥ x x ♦ x x ♣ K Q J x x x.

Assuming you don't make the same call every time with a hand like this, what is the ratio that you will

A. Pass

B. Open 1C

C. Open 3C

D. Open 1N

E. Do something really off the wall like 1 of something else, 2N or 4C.

Pass = 1%, 1♣ = 2%, 3♣ = 95%, 1N = 1%, Other = 1%.

[TylerE]

Did the hand get edited? I swear when I first looked at it was xxx xxx xx KQJxx

[Phil]

Did the hand get edited? I swear when I first looked at it was xxx xxx xx KQJxx

 

Nope. Hasn't changed. 322 might have been different at the table; I can't remember.

[mike777]

pass

\no problem yet

 

 

if other bids are winning ok.