ATB

[ArtK78]

Matchpoints.

 

[hv=pc=n&w=sa93haq43d83cakj3&e=skqj6hk986dakcq94&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=1cp1hp4hp4np5hp7hppp]266|200[/hv]

 

This wouldn't have been a bad result if hearts had split, as only one pair bid 7NT in the 20 times the board was played, and only 4 other pairs bid 7♥. However, when the JTxx of hearts was in the North hand, it became a disaster.

[mike777]

no blame

[ArtK78]

no blame

Mike, you don't understand. 7♥ at matchpoints on these cards is marginal, but 7NT is 100%. The point is that we should be in NT, not hearts, at either the 6 or 7 level. Playing in 7♥ is a losing proposition.

[manudude03]

Assuming you have no other way to show 18-19 balanced with 4 card support, East is clearly blameless. West might have bid 6♣ over 5♥ to ask for 3rd round control there (settling for 7H if East doesn't have the ♣Q), but I'm not sure if you have that as an option in your system. That's just about the only bit of blame I could see.

[mikeh]

I can't find fault with East, because I really hate bidding 2N as East on the second round. There are players who choose those sorts of bids, including, I suspect, some better players than I, but I hate it and won't assign blame for not choosing it. Besides, that wouldn't necessarily (or probably imo) solve the problem.

 

4N is unassailable....East has to have diamond values to get to 18 hcp.

 

5♥ is automatic.

 

Now I think West simply didn't think. It would take a long time to set out the full analysis, but a little thought will show that East has to be some 4432 or 2=4=2=5 or 3=4=3=3.

 

On 2=4=2=5, 7N is always the same or better than 7♥.

 

On 3=4=2=4, there is no ruff available, and 7N avoids a club ruff or 5-0 hearts, so 7N is clearly right

 

On 2=4=3=4, in theory a ruff could be the 13th trick, but just try placing 18 hcp in East's hand. It can be done in a way that makes hearts better....but I think, without spending much time on it, it requires specifically KJ KJxx AKJ Qxxx, and even here 7N is not without play. And what a specific target....give opener 19 hcp or make the hearts Kxxx and 7N is either cold or slightly better than hearts.

 

On 3=4=3=3, once again, if we give East 18-19 hcp, I can't see many layouts on which hearts is superior. KJx KJxx AKJ Qxx is, I think, the only layout, and since we need hearts 3-2 or a very friendly lie with 4-1 (we need the long hearts to also hold 4 clubs, and may need a lucky lie in the suit we decide to ruff in dummy), it isn't that 7♥ is cold.

 

Meanwhile, whenever partner has Kxxx in hearts, we are at the mercy of the trump suit no matter how many side winners we have.

 

Add that this is mps, and 7♥ is an unthinking action and gets all of the blame.

 

Edit: if we are bidding grand over 5H, then we are giving opener the club Q. If we want to ask about the club Q, then we can do so, and the above reasoning applies to make us correct hearts to notrump, and it might be the better action, tho I doubt that there are many layouts wherein he lacks the club Q.

[mgoetze]

West not asking for kings is kind of lazy. If East has KQJ Kxxx AQJ Qxx we don't really want to be in grand at all. If we do have all the kings, can 7♥ be better than 7NT? Well, East could have KQJx KJxx AKJ xx, I suppose, but it took me a while to come up with that one. I expect 7NT to be odds on when we have all the aces and kings.

 

So I'll blame West.

[mikeh]

West not asking for kings is kind of lazy. If East has KQJ Kxxx AQJ Qxx we don't really want to be in grand at all. If we do have all the kings, can 7♥ be better than 7NT? Well, East could have KQJx KJxx AKJ xx, I suppose, but it took me a while to come up with that one. I expect 7NT to be odds on when we have all the aces and kings.

 

So I'll blame West.

East opened 1♣. While some do play that 1♣ could be 4=4=3=2, that would, I assume, be stated in the OP were it relevant.

[ArtK78]

East opened 1♣. While some do play that 1♣ could be 4=4=3=2, that would, I assume, be stated in the OP were it relevant.

Indeed. The opening bid would have been 1♦ had East been 4432.

[WesleyC]

Given that East made (what appears to be) a systemically forced bid on every round of the auction, this doesn't feel like the world's most taxing ATB problem...

[MrAce]

I agree that E was forced to make bids that he did and no blame goes to him if any. Overall W could have done better and Mike summed it up very well imo.

[wank]

due to his spade holding east can cout 13 tricks in NT (possibly needing the same heart split as 7h) opposite any plausible hand from west.

[MrAce]

due to his spade holding east can cout 13 tricks in NT (possibly needing the same heart split as 7h) opposite any plausible hand from west.

 

Good point. I did not see this.

[rhm]

Given that East made (what appears to be) a systemically forced bid on every round of the auction, this doesn't feel like the world's most taxing ATB problem...

I think the East hand is not worth its point count.

Weak hearts (in context), few aces, ♦ AK bare, no tens. The hand is better suited for notrumps than a suit contract.

I believe 1NT would have been a good opening bid (yes I sometimes downgrade notrump hands) and 3♥ is a better bid than 4♥.

But then I do not believe in systemic straitjackets.

Good judgement rules this game.

But I am not claiming that West is blameless, only that I do not like East judgement.

After East overbid, West should expect 7NT to be cold and can see the danger that a bad trump split could pose.

At matchpoints I would never consider 7♥ when all key cards are on board after receiving a game raise.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[ahydra]

due to his spade holding east can cout 13 tricks in NT (possibly needing the same heart split as 7h) opposite any plausible hand from west.

 

What if West had the DJ instead of the CJ?

 

ahydra

[MrAce]

What if West had the DJ instead of the CJ?

 

ahydra

 

4 spade+ 4 heart + 2 dia +3 cl =13

 

We all focused on bidding and forgot to count the tricks from East. Wank simply nailed it imo. In other words E was forced to make all bids as I said, except than the last pass over 7♥. I think this is what Art was waiting to hear. Very good problem btw Art.

[WesleyC]

Why can't West have a hand which plans to make 13 tricks by ruffing something? Perhaps: [Axxx AQJxx Jxx A] or [A AQJx Qxxx Axxx]... West might even be messing around on a freak hand with void(s) in the hope of inducing the wrong lead.

 

If I was West and wanted to involve East in the decision of which grand to play, I would start by confirming all the KCs.

[MrAce]

Why can't West have a hand which plans to make 13 tricks by ruffing something? Perhaps: [Axxx AQJxx Jxx A] or [A AQJx Qxxx Axxx]... West might even be messing around on a freak hand with void(s) in the hope of inducing the wrong lead.

 

If I was West and wanted to involve East in the decision of which grand to play, I would start by confirming all the KCs.

 

Why would someone bid grand with those hands the way he did, Wesley?

 

Hand 1 for example vs Qxx Kxxx AKQ KJx. Let alone bidding grand like this, you should be skeptical about slam.

 

Hand 2 is better but how did he figure opener won't table KQJ Kxxx AKx QTx or KQJ Kxxx Ax KQJx

[ahydra]

4 spade+ 4 heart + 2 dia +3 cl =13

 

My point is it's not 13 clear cut tricks if West has the DJ rather than the CJ. The HJ is still missing, and they might split 4-1 as at the table.

 

However I see now that Hog has accounted for that in his post. So essentially he's saying East can see that 7NT is at least as good as 7H and should therefore convert - I can certainly buy that.

 

ahydra

[mikeh]

On reflection, I agree with the suggestion that East can look at KQJx in spades and assume 13 winners on all hands on which 7♥ can make. This is especially so when West didn't ask about the diamond K.

 

However, at the table nobody is ringing a bell to warn either player that this is a hand on which to pay particular attention. While that might seem to excuse both players, to some degree, I think that in real life it is more of an excuse for East.

 

Whenever one partner takes unilateral control and then purports to place the contract, when he had available to him a means of explicitly inviting cooperation, the other partner will tend to not want to second-guess partner. Is that a proper way to play? No. We should always be thinking, and contrary to my initial post I now see that East bears some responsibility/blame.

 

However, West made the worst mistakes. Firstly, he failed to realize that if he wanted to jump to grand, 7N was almost always the correct spot, even ignoring mp implications.....except for incredibly specific layouts, 7N was never worse than 7♥ and almost always safer. Throw in the mp angle, and 7♥ is a very bad choice.

 

Secondly, he could have bid 5N, a call that expressly invites East to consider expressing an opinion on the hand. Now East (who should admittedly already be thinking of the value of KQJx in spades) will be in a position in which he will be used to thinking about having an undisclosed source of tricks.

 

So I now suggest about 70-30 blame.

[ArtK78]

Thanks all.

 

I held the East hand. It briefly occurred to me that 7NT might be better, but I reacted exactly the way Mike explained it - no bell was ringing, partner took control of the auction and did not even bid 5NT to indicate that he might want some input from me as to the final contract. So I accepted partner's judgment and didn't give it any additional thought.

 

In retrospect, I should have realized that any hand on which partner believed that 7♥ was making would also produce 13 tricks in NT given my spade holding. But it did not occur to me to overrule partner when he did not ask me to express an opinion.

[gszes]

The minority report assigns any blame to east AFTER kudos to reaching 7h. Passing 7h vs bidding 7n seems wooden to me. It is true that east was systemically endplayed throughout the bidding but we need to pause and think about west's actions before deciding to pass. West decided to keycard with no diamond control. This is really only justifiable if they have a truly massive hand and it is inconceivable the east hand would not have a dia control.

 

Once we realize west has to have a massive hand we need to look a bit further. West did not ask for the heart Q meaning they have it or extra length so they do not care. West has NO CLUE we have 4 spades yet we know there are 4 spade tricks. P made no effort to ask for kings so they must have felt they could come to 13 tricks (somehow) in hearts. This fact alone makes those 2 extra spade tricks golden. Another consideration is that if p intended to try and set up your clubs for a 13th trick that is bound to fail. The only reason to pass 7h is if east feels the dia AK is going to be magically worth the 13th trick via a ruff. That seems just too small a probability to me.

 

Hard to quantify the blame though since 7h alone is normally a really good MP spot and 7N more of a gravy train. What little blame there is seems to be about 10% east and (imho) about 20% system for not allowing for more flexibility in the bidding.

[jdonn]

So is the question, west guessed at the final contract and guessed wrong when he could have investigated further and consulted his partner's judgment, ATB?