What to bid here

[vinchy]

[hv=pc=n&n=shaj842dkq82ck975&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=p1s2h2s3c4s]133|200[/hv]

[wank]

blackwood if i thought partner was likely to take it that way.

 

6c if not.

[eagles123]

I'll settle for 5 clubs

[mikeh]

4N should be keycard, since it cannot be natural, and it can't be two places to play, both of which should, in appropriate circumstances, be taken as the default meaning rather than keycard.

 

However, I don't see how it helps.

 

Let's say we assume that the opps hold the spade A, which is (I think) reasonable....

 

I assume we play 1430, since that is more common amongst experienced players than 0314, and we can't just pick the one we'd prefer to be playing on this hand.

 

If partner has 1 keycard, we may well still be cold for slam. xx Kx xxx AQxxxx is all he needs to make slam virtually cold. Qx in hearts may be all he needs, and he may have a stiff, along with 7 or 8 clubs! We just don't know.

 

If he has 2 keycards, we aren't ever bidding grand, because he might have xx xx Axx AJxxxx and now we need nothing bad in clubs plus something good in diamonds.

 

If he has no keycards, we are in slam anyway, tho I can't imagine no keycards.

 

I reject 4N, then, on the most common grounds there are for choosing not to keycard: the answer to my keycard ask leaves me guessing, and no further ahead than I am now.

 

I bid 6♣.

[ArtK78]

Of course, the optimist in all of us looks at this and notes that opposite as little as:

 

xxx

x

AJx

Axxxxx

 

a grand slam only requires reasonable breaks to make easily.

 

Of course, opposite

 

AKx

x

xxx

QJxxxx

 

you are off two cashing aces.

 

Unfortunately, there is no way to know what partner's honor structure is. But which of these is more consistent with the auction?

 

It appears that your opps are bidding primarily on distribution. Still, your LHO does have what he thinks to be an opening bid.

 

I would take the low road here and just bid 5♣. It is possible that the auction is not over, and you may get a chance to make a forcing pass over a 5♠ bid (then we can will get into a discussion of whether your pass actually is forcing). Or, if partner is in direct seat over a 5♠ bid, he would certainly double with spade honors and pass otherwise.

[Zelandakh]

4N should be keycard, since it cannot be natural, and it can't be two places to play, both of which should, in appropriate circumstances, be taken as the default meaning rather than keycard.

Could it not also be Last Train, Mike?

[Phil]

In a nuanced partnership 4N should be a last train for clubs or possibly hearts.

 

If we have more basic agreements 4N is just RKC and I'll gamble on club solidity and or we have a way to dump a heart loser.

 

Good problem

[Trinidad]

I don't think partner will pass in first seat and now suddenly will offer his club suit, after we have told him we like hearts (i.e. not clubs), if he doesn't have some tolerance for a heart contract. I don't mean that it is entirely impossible that partner has short hearts, but it isn't very likely.

 

That means that 6♣ is overly optimistic. I will settle for 5♣. Call me chicken.

 

Rik

[rmnka447]

There's no way to know what RHO 4 ♠ is made on. It could be a distributional player or a strong 5 loser hand.

 

Anyhow, the 4 ♠ bid has certainly tossed a monkey wrench into any constructive slam exploration. There's just no way to know exactly where partner's values are either.

 

So here, I'm bidding 5 ♣ --- getting to what should be a good spot versus a potentially perfect/terrible spot of 6 ♣. Bidding slam is putting cards into partner's hand that you can't know are there or not. In a team game, it's the action I'd feel most comfortable defending in the post mortem. Failing to bid slam amid uncertainty is more explainable than bidding a slam that goes down and gives up a vulnerable game swing. At MPs, bidding slam seems like a wild shot at a top. I'd expect most people in the field to settle in game in similar circumstances.

[gszes]

on the bottom edge p might hold xx Qxx x Qxxxxxx (if you would raise hearts with that you are far braver than I). On the top side P might have xxx void xxxx AQxxxx it would seem the contract should lie somewhere btn 4c and 6c making 5c the likeliest biggest reward with the best overall chance of success (I know I know we cant bid 4c anymore but those hands still should count in the probabilities). The strongest case for bidding 6c is that it just might coerce an opp to bid 6s if 6c is not x. I do not like those odds and much prefer the use of 4n as last train or in the absence of that agreement just bid 5c.

[mikeh]

on the bottom edge p might hold xx Qxx x Qxxxxxx (if you would raise hearts with that you are far braver than I).

 

If you would bid 3♣ on that, you are far more foolish than I....

[cherdano]

I agree with most of what has been said, but I think the discussion is very incomplete. If I could choose between playing 5c or 6c, it would be a close decision. But this is a competitive auction! I dont expect to beat 5SX more than one trick most of the time. That means a 40% slam is a good bet. And of course I would rather defend 6Sx than 5SX.

(I dont know whether i prefer 6c over 6SX, otherwise I might slow play it with 5C.)

[PhilKing]

I agree with Cherdano, although I am unclear whether he agrees with himself. It's time for a slowplay of 5♣. Maybe we will get doubled in this, and maybe I will get doubled in 6♣.

 

The point is, I don't think 5♣ will end the auction, so it's a great spot to go slow.

 

Walkies!

[ahydra]

If needing a swing AND partner can be relied on to have his 3C bid, then 6C; otherwise 5C. (I assume 3C is a FNJ or similar.)

 

Is pass forcing here? I guess not; pity, because if it was then we could pass and pull X to 5C to show this.

 

ahydra

[foobar]

[hv=pc=n&n=shaj842dkq82ck975&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=p1s2h2s3c4s]133|200[/hv]

 

IMO, a hand that couldn't bid in first seat, but comes in later with 3♣ must have some support for ♥s. With that in mind, 5♣ seems about right.

[Hanoi5]

My first thought was 5♣. 6 is very tempting especially at this vulnerability when partner's intervention should be better than normal. However, suits might not be splitting well and so I'm gnna settle for this and wait for developments. I'll probably bid 6 if they compete at the 5-level though.

[WesleyC]

Maybe I'm from a different planet, but a typical 3C bid for me in this auction looks more like: [xx T9x xxx AQJTx].

 

You've got heart tolerance, want a club lead vs 4S and are happy for partner to compete to 5C/5H with a double fit.

 

Trying to invent a slam on this hand seems crazy.