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Is It a Guess


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At IMPS (where setting the contract is a major objective) I would lead a spade.

At MP, where not giving away a trick can be just as important as setting them, I would

lead the heart Q on the theory that LHO has a long suit and is therefore less likely

to table an inconvenient H(T9)x holding or even Hxx).

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Hi,

 

the normal lead is an unbid suit, given say have bid the minors,

the normal lead is a major.

Spades is your better suit, you need less from partner to avoid

blowing a trick, basically the 10 is enough, if partner has the

Ace of hearts, your chances of getting 4 are really good, i.e.

if you want to set the contract quickly this is your best chance.

 

Most likely clubs are breaking either 33 or 32, i.e. they have a

source of tricks.

 

So from this ... at MP a spade, at IMPs a heart.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

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The other responders seem to be looking at a different hand than the one I see! One of them wants to lead a card that isn't in the given hand, and the other thinks QJ62 is a better suit than KJ65. I would lead a heart.

 

I know the hand as I was sitting opposite eagles123, but is leading the better suit always right ? Here if partner has K, the K might get you in to cash the 4th one, if partner has the Q, it's less likely the spades will be an entry. This is probably more of an IMPs argument than a MPs one, but I think it still applies to some extent.

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We are silent opps bidding is:

 

1d - 2c - 2n - 3n ap

 

opps are playing acol

 

QJ62

Kj65

T6

T92

 

is there a clear reason to lead one major rather than another or is this a guess? or should i lead a minor?

 

scoring is MP

 

many thanks,

 

Eagles

 

Without doubt the Q, even if the bidding were 1NT-3NT. Leading from KJ is extremely dangerous and results in loss of a trick way too often. QJxx without the 10 or 9 is also not optimal but a notch up, and just as likely to hurt them. Plus, heart K is a better potential entry.

 

Have you read David Bird's book?

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At IMPS (where setting the contract is a major objective) I would lead a spade.

At MP, where not giving away a trick can be just as important as setting them, I would

lead the heart Q on the theory that LHO has a long suit and is therefore less likely

to table an inconvenient H(T9)x holding or even Hxx).

 

Now if we can just get this gszes guy to actually READ the hand properly these ramblings might

begin to make some sort of sense. Mumble grumble AT IMPS our best shot is quick tricks on a hand

where the splits look favorable for the opps. I would lead a HEART.

 

At MP where giving up a trick can be just as disastrous as setting the contract can be positive, I would

choose the spade Q. Dummy is less likely to have an inconvenient holding like (A or K)[(T or 9) x or even

xx]. The spade suit still has chances of being the best lead and gives up a trick less often.

 

I think the commentary now matches the hand shown in the OP sorry about that.

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I agree with Mason re the spade lead. Obviously there are arrangements where it can go worse even with any given card, but in general leading from QJxx is safeish if P has the A, K or T, leading from KJxx is only safeish if P has the A or Q.

 

KJxx was almost the worst holding in bridge to lead from in (both) Bird and Anthias' books.

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  • 3 weeks later...
scoring is MP you hold Q J 6 2 K J 6 5 T 6 T 9 2

Opps are playing acol. We are silent opps bidding is:

(1) - (2) -

(2N) - (3N) AP

Is there a clear reason to lead one major rather than another?

or is this a guess?

or should i lead a minor?

IMO Q = 10. 2 = 9, 5 = 8, T = 5, T = 4.
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IMO Q = 10. 2 = 9, 5 = 8, T = 5, T = 4.

Based on the simulation I posted on the other thread with this title:Q=10, 2=7.2, 5=7, 10=5, 10=2.

 

At IMPs: Q=10, 2=8, 10=6, 5=5, 10=2

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