Is It a Guess

[eagles123]

We are silent opps bidding is:

 

1d - 2c - 2n - 3n ap

 

opps are playing acol

 

QJ62

Kj65

T6

T92

 

is there a clear reason to lead one major rather than another or is this a guess? or should i lead a minor?

 

scoring is MP

 

many thanks,

 

Eagles

[perko90]

I would lead 2S.

3 reasons:

1) auction calls for a major lead

2) ptr can have any of 3 cards that will make you smile inside (A,K,T) whereas only the A,Q are as useful with a H lead

3) KJ H more likely to be a side entry than QJ S

[BillPatch]

I would lead the SQ. Perko90's reasons apply to choosing a spade. The honor lead can work when declarer's side has all three outstanding honors but the ten lies in a hand with a doubleton. Bird-Anthias report extensively on similar hands where only one of the two hands rates to be shorter than 4 in the suit. and the honor leads work better. In the current auction it is probable that both opponents are relatively short in ♠, the odds are even better that the honor from the two honor sequence wins.

[BillPatch]

I ran a Double Dummy simulation of 2001 sample size. Opening bidder(declarer) was given a balanced 15-17HCP with at least 4 diamonds. Responder was given at least 4 clubs, less than 6 diamonds, and spades and hearts with less than 4 cards.

The results: S Q 3.21 average defensive tricks 21.29% sets contract

S 2 3.05 tricks 18.49% sets

H 5 3.05 tricks 16.59% sets

C 10 3.02 tricks 16.79% sets

D 10 2.96 tricks 15.59% sets

As I forecast Q♠ was best. I was surprised that a low heart tied low spade in second place by the matchpoint measure--average defensive tricks. A smaller surprise was that the club placed highly at setting the contract, above a low H.