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drop or finesse


manudude03

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[hv=pc=n&w=s94hq9dakq98c7653&e=skq62ha832dt7cqjt&d=s&v=e&b=3&a=p1d1sdp2cp3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

This was from a premier league match here in Northern Ireland, opponents are pretty strong club players- probably high advanced/low expert by BBO's "official" standards. The play 2/4 leads, standard count/attitude and their overcall style is usually sound, but at 56 imps down with 7 boards to go, they might be swinging.

 

Anyway, you are in 3NT by the East hand. The play for the first 5 tricks is as follows:

 

1. SA S4 S3 S2

2. HJ HQ HK HA

3. CT C9 C3 CA

4. H4 H2 HT H9

5. H5 C5 H7 H8

 

How do you continue from here?

If you play a diamond up (presumably the ten) first to go fishing, it will just fetch low cards (3 from South, 2 from North).

 

edit: Diagram was screwed up when removing unplayed cards. Had to remove 4 handed diagram.

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North hand looks a bit like JT8753 K764 ?? AK?. That means I would be playing south for at least 4 diamonds making south favorite to hold the jack. But this feeling might be badly off if my reading from played cards and biding is even slightly wrong. So with given information I would be likely to run diamond now. Of course then north has JT8753 K74 Jxx A and none understand why I went down in a cold game :)
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