awm Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 A832937653J86 IMP teams, RHO opens and our side silent: 1NT (15-17) - 2♦ (transfer)2♥ - 2NT (invite NF)3NT - Pass What do you lead? A Sim might also be useful here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgoetze Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm only allowed to lead 4-card suits? Partner rates to be stronger than we are and clubs seems like the best bet to find him with a 5-bagger. I would choose spades over diamonds because responder might have bid differently with 4-5 in the majors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Its a thin game with hearts not breaking, doesn't look like we need to be highly active. A spade is not a good lead, however the other leads aren't great either. Partner didn't double 2♦, and underleading a club into declarer's 5 card club would be terrible. I would lead a diamond here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antonylee Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 I was going to lead a spade because I'm not that imaginative here, but a quick sim (500 hands, South 16-17 with 2 hearts, North 8-9 with 5 hearts) suggests that hearts and diamonds are statistically tied as best leads, ~0.2 imp ahead of low spades or clubs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 I was going to lead a spade because I'm not that imaginative here, but a quick sim (500 hands, South 16-17 with 2 hearts, North 8-9 with 5 hearts) suggests that hearts and diamonds are statistically tied as best leads, ~0.2 imp ahead of low spades or clubs.Wow. I would have thought low club would be about minus infinity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jallerton Posted February 13, 2015 Report Share Posted February 13, 2015 Its a thin game with hearts not breaking, doesn't look like we need to be highly active. A spade is not a good lead, however the other leads aren't great either. Partner didn't double 2♦, and underleading a club into declarer's 5 card club would be terrible. I would lead a diamond here. I would also lead a diamond. If we have 4 spade tricks to cash, we might get another chance to do so later. However, it's not necessarily true to state that hearts are not breaking: sometimes declarer has a no-trumpy hand with 3-card support. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithhus Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 I would lead a S - 4th from honour. Also NT are usually strong in minors, otherwise they would play in a major. Further, in this instance they have bid H. It may not be very imaginative, but if this approach is not the best , why are we beginners taught along these lines? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmnka447 Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 What has the auction told you? Auction doesn't yield much except ♥s are likely 5-2. Also, responder doesn't have 4 ♠s, else, Stayman would have been used. OTOH, it was an invite and accept so the opponents don't rate to hold anymore than 25-26 points. Do some arithmetic. Your hand (5 HCP) plus 25-26 HCP for the opponents equals 30-31 for everyone but partner. So, partner rates to have 9-10 HCP. Normally, when the opponents bid strongly to a NT game, you make an attacking lead trying to find and set up defenders' long suit tricks before declarer can set up tricks and cash 9 tricks. There are couple considerations to make. First, whose long suit? Second, are there entries to be able to cash the long suit tricks once they are set up? Finally, when the opponents have had an invitational auction and reached game, you may want to be more passive in leading and try not to give an extra trick to the opponents. Look at your suits. ♦ need a significant holding in partner's hand to ever be set up. Likewise, ♠ also need a lot to be set up. Additionally, if you underlead the ♠ A, you may give away a trick if declarer has something like ♠ Kxx opposite ♠ Qxx. Since you have 2 ♥s, partner ought to have 4 ♥s. But leading dummy's long suit doesn't rate to be right. You may be helping Declarer set up that suit while an entry still exists to it. Additionally with partner holding about 10 HCP, he's more likely to hold enough in some suit to let it be set up AND an outside entry. One additional piece of evidence -- partner didn't double the 2 ♦ transfer for a D lead. So, by process of elimination, you come to a potential ♣ lead. There is a danger that partner might hold ♣ Qxx and a ♣ lead gives away the suit. I'd probably lead the ♣ 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 What has the auction told you? Auction doesn't yield much except ♥s are likely 5-2. Also, responder doesn't have 4 ♠s, else, Stayman would have been used. OTOH, it was an invite and accept so the opponents don't rate to hold anymore than 25-26 points. Do some arithmetic. Your hand (5 HCP) plus 25-26 HCP for the opponents equals 30-31 for everyone but partner. So, partner rates to have 9-10 HCP. No, the opponents rate to have 24 to 30, at least in the games I play in. This gives partner 5 to 11. Normally, when the opponents bid strongly to a NT game, you make an attacking lead trying to find and set up defenders' long suit tricks before declarer can set up tricks and cash 9 tricks. There are couple considerations to make. First, whose long suit? Second, are there entries to be able to cash the long suit tricks once they are set up? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. If we do not have an obvious lead, or we have a strong hand over declarer, a passive lead is frequently best. Finally, when the opponents have had an invitational auction and reached game, you may want to be more passive in leading and try not to give an extra trick to the opponents. Yes! Plus, we know their key suit isn't breaking evenly. Look at your suits. ♦ need a significant holding in partner's hand to ever be set up. A diamond could be passive if partner has a weak holding, or it could be active if partner has some length. You did say you liked a passive lead against this auction, right? [Likewise, ♠ also need a lot to be set up. Additionally, if you underlead the ♠ A, you may give away a trick if declarer has something like ♠ Kxx opposite ♠ Qxx. Depends on the spots, but if we hit partner with ♠Qxx, we could be on our way toward setting up #5. Since you have 2 ♥s, partner ought to have 4 ♥s. But leading dummy's long suit doesn't rate to be right. You may be helping Declarer set up that suit while an entry still exists to it. . Besides, partner might have x'd 3N. Additionally with partner holding about 10 HCP, he's more likely to hold enough in some suit to let it be set up AND an outside entry. OK. You've given partner four hearts already. What makes you think partner has their own suit? One additional piece of evidence -- partner didn't double the 2 ♦ transfer for a D lead.. Should partner have to nurse us by doubling with KJxx or KQxx? So, by process of elimination, you come to a potential ♣ lead. There is a danger that partner might hold ♣ Qxx and a ♣ lead gives away the suit. I'd probably lead the ♣ 6. No, by faulty logic and not following a sensible train of thought, you lead a club. I choose a diamond, and its not really close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 No, the opponents rate to have 24 to 30, at least in the games I play in. This gives partner 5 to 11. Are you sure Phil, did you realice they made an invitational auction? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 Tripped up by my own faulty chain of reasoning! I still lead a diamond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runewell Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 Toss up between a club or a diamond. Not leading hearts and not underleading my ace of spades without reasoning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrAce Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'd lead ♦ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhantomSac Posted February 16, 2015 Report Share Posted February 16, 2015 I am in the camp that leads a diamond on this auction, but had it been 1N 2D 2H 3N I would lead a spade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gszes Posted February 16, 2015 Report Share Posted February 16, 2015 We are in bad shape here. P has most of our assets and they are in front of the NT opener. Thatbodes ill for the defense. Maybe this is the right time to mix things up a bit and possibly convincedeclarer to take more (not less) finesses into partners hand. I opt to start the proceedings with thespade 3 and follow up with the 2 in the hopes everyone will think we have 5 spades. This can accomplishseveral things: 1. Declarer might put off setting up their own spades right away if they fear they will set up a trick for us2. If the lead is not horrible (as it was in case 1) we might actually set up our 4th spade or at the very leastwe might start messing with the opps communications.3. Declarer might misplay the hand based on faulty distributional assumptions. Assuming we start with 5 spadesthey miscalculate how the other suits are split.4. If they fear spades declarer might take more finesses into partners hand and that can hardly be a bad thing for us.5. The misinformation is hugely unlikely to steer partner the wrong way (they will know we have little outside spades)but declarer won't know. Isn't this game FUN???????:) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvr bull Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 I lead the CJ and hope for the best. Since no lead appeals, I can hope that dummy has CQ9x and declarer started with CKx in a 4=2=5=2. Then the CJ would be the killing opening lead. Even if partner's Cs are only Txx, he may still win the ten if Declarer plays me to have started with CJT8x and dummy has 4 Cs with an honor and the 9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awm Posted February 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2015 On the actual hand, it requires a spade lead to set. [hv=pc=n&s=sk76hq6daj82cak95&w=sa832h93d7653cj86&n=sq9hkj872dq9ct432&e=sjt54hat54dkt4cq7&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1np2dp2hp2np3nppp]399|300[/hv] At the table the lead was a high diamond to the nine, ten, and jack. Declarer started the hearts, partner winning the second round. Partner returned the diamond king, smothering the queen as declarer won and played three rounds of clubs. West pushed out the diamond eight, and declarer had three diamonds, three clubs, two hearts, and a spade (defense taking a club, a heart, a diamond, and the spade ace) for making three. A spade lead will defeat the contract of course. No swing, as the same lead was made at the other table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 A spade lead will defeat the contract of course.In the Expert forum, sure. But one might expect to make considerably more than 9 times out of ten against LOLs playing a ♥ to the queen followed by 3 clubs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antonylee Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 I was going to lead a spade because I'm not that imaginative here, but a quick sim (500 hands, South 16-17 with 2 hearts, North 8-9 with 5 hearts) suggests that hearts and diamonds are statistically tied as best leads, ~0.2 imp ahead of low spades or clubs.Retracting my previous sim here, as I had failed to notice that dummy probably doesn't hold 4S. This additional condition actually puts the small spade on top of the list, ~0.1(+/-0.05 s.e.) imp ahead of diamonds and 0.05(+/-0.05) ahead of hearts over 1000 boards.Note that I switched to "smartstacking" (for those who know Deal's terminology) and found a bug in my previous implementation, so while that's corrected, I'm not guaranteeing these results either -- at least they're consistent, in absence of the "dummy has 0-3 spades" condition the previous results still hold). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 In the Expert forum, sure. But one might expect to make considerably more than 9 times out of ten against LOLs playing a ♥ to the queen followed by 3 clubs...How are you gonna get 9 tricks this way Zel? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelandakh Posted February 23, 2015 Report Share Posted February 23, 2015 How are you gonna get 9 tricks this way Zel?Most LOLs would continue spades giving the defence only 2 spade tricks, one heart and the club. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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