Another "overcall or not" problem

[whereagles]

Thx all. Hands were

[hv=pc=n&s=saqj6hj5dq8caj963&w=st5hk7643dak7c752&n=sk8haqt92d96542cq&e=s97432h8djt3ckt84&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=p1c1hppdppp]399|300[/hv]

 

That was the auction at the table. This one does go for a telephone number... but I still think the overcall should be done. Surprisingly, the field (~30 tables) didn't reproduce the auction a single time, and only one other person went for a number (in 1♠X).

 

The good thing is they could have set us 4, but they slopped a trick :)

[Bbradley62]

Not really "surprisingly"... I'm guessing that many Souths opened 1N, in which case West keeps quiet?

[lordc]

I agree with this. A passer is not a partner I would eve rcontemplate playing with. Perhaps the passers have never heard of cue raises?

 

I would probably bid 1♥ while on bbo, to stay with the field, because of the propensity of bbo'ers to bid on junk. but I would pass happily anywhere else.

[PhantomSac]

So in your opinion players on BBO would overcall 1H while players "anywhere else" would not?

[johnu]

Recently we won the Kakinada Tournament because I declined to overcall an almost Identical hand (A8xxx H, 10 HCP). Opps played in 3NT for 430. At the other table, bidding went 1C-1H-Dbl-all pass for 1100

 

You can't argue with anecdotal evidence :), unless there is more anecdotal evidence that points the opposite direction :P

[mcphee]

Although I consider 1H a poor over call, poor suit, 3 small C, at best a part score struggle I think we have to go along with the majority and get in now. It will not surprise me if I go for a digit but even though I think 1H is not a good bid, the majority will get in.

[Trinidad]

Not really "surprisingly"... I'm guessing that many Souths opened 1N, in which case West keeps quiet?

Which, then again, shows what you can miss out on if you open 15-17 unbalanced hands (without a rebid problem) with 1NT.

 

I would have overcalled 1♥ myself as West. But it is fun to know that if I would have been South against Justin, I would have gotten a good board, since I certainly would not open a club-spade one-and-a-half-suiter with 1NT.

 

Rik

[sner66]

Anyone who passes deserves what they get when opponents rack up nine tricks in 3NT on a non-heart lead.

[cherdano]

I haven't heard any good arguments to change my mind. I still pass.

What sort of arguments did you expect, exactly?

The benefits of bidding (might find a heart partscore, or even game in the unlikely chance that partner has a big fit for us, might tip partner off to the right lead versus 3NT, or off a bad spade lead against other contracts, might take a bit of space away from opponents' constructive bidding sequence) versus passing (avoid giving information to opponents when they end up declaring, might talk partner out of a successful diamond lead, might go for a big number in the unlikely chance that LHO has a big fit for us and partner cannot rescue) are pretty obvious either way.

The only question which matters is how to weigh these advantages and disadvantages against each other. I don't see any arguments that could quantify them against each other. So all we can go by is the collective experience. So lots of strong players voting one way or the other should be more convincing, IMO, than any eloquent arguments.

[AyunuS]

I like to go for 1♥ with hands with at least this much strength. If your partner has around 10 HCP it could be a competitive auction where your team can reasonably compete. You might even take the auction or push them into one they can't make. On the other hand, I find that you very rarely get doubled for penalty with some level 1 bid like this so I find it to be pretty low risk.

[wank]

Who?

 

one of the england team from opatija. i don't like saying who, because name dropping often makes you look like a prat, and i wouldn't want people sticking my own name up on a public forum just because i gave an opinion on a bridge hand.

[wbartley]

There are good arguments on both side. I pass and my argument is that with so few tricks in my hand I can easily imagine our side buying the hand for two hearts, undoubled, and going off 200.

[quiddity]

What sort of arguments did you expect, exactly?

...

The only question which matters is how to weigh these advantages and disadvantages against each other. I don't see any arguments that could quantify them against each other. So all we can go by is the collective experience. So lots of strong players voting one way or the other should be more convincing, IMO, than any eloquent arguments.

 

Agreed with this. However, the interesting argument (for me at least) isn't so much about which of pass or overcall is better, but more about whether pass is ridiculous or very negative-EV. The fact that a strong player with an aggressive overcall style chooses to overcall here doesn't really suggest one way or the other whether pass is ridiculous. If the strong player felt that passing was terrible, that would be a better data point. If you polled a few strong players with a more conservative style and they thought this was a WTP overcall, that would be a very strong argument.

 

I think if someone wanted to run a simulation you could come up with a very rough estimate of the reward/risk by comparing the number of hands where we have a par plus score vs the number of partscore hands where we can't make anything.

[wank]

Anyone who passes deserves what they get when opponents rack up nine tricks in 3NT on a non-heart lead.

 

noone denies this might happen. similarly, noone would deny that you might turn partner away from a diamond lead from his qtxxx and onto a heart from Jx, or that you might go for 1100 on the hand. it's a matter of weighting the various possibilities as well as possible, not fixating on one aspect.

 

if your weighting gives a different result to mine, then fair enough, but it's silly to pretend there's no downside to any choice.

[akwoo]

I couldn't imagine forming a regular partnership with someone who thought this was a pass, because they'll overcompete to the 3 level when I bid, and I'll wrongly sell out to 2♣ or 2♠ when they don't.

 

I phrased this very carefully. I don't think passing is wrong. It's just such a fundamental difference in style that someone who passed and I would not be compatible as regular partners. For a one-off at a club or at a tournament partnership desk, I'll try to adjust.