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Lead Problem


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Did you really mean 1 ace and not 1 keycard? Anyway, it seems like our chances are

 

  • Try to lead and expect to defeat by taking 2 red tricks.
  • Try to cash A and expect to defeat when pd has Qxx

In both cases you need pd to hold a Q, so they are playing a slam with 28 hcp. This tells me that responder has shape for driving to slam with less than slam values. At least 5-5.

 

In order to lead to work, you need them to play a 5-3 fit otherwise they will be able to clear trumps and run clubs pitching losers OR all the diamonds NT opener holds. Of course there are exceptions to this but still. You also need the shapely hand not to be short in suit (5125 wont' help you even if you find Q with your pd)

 

But A lead will work each time pd has Qxx or Kxx in addition to when they hold a hidden 5-2 (responder 6142/5125 snd opener 3253/3352) so pd can ruff 2nd . Unlikely but possibility. Also another tiny chance that we can cash AK

 

This is why I asked the question whether 4 NT was asking only aces or keycards. In keycard system, responder could have asked about the trump Q, or maybe he did not bother?

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