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Opps preempt and we got a problem


whereagles

  

13 members have voted

  1. 1. Bid?

    • pass wtp
      5
    • dbl (lebenshol by 6th applies)
      8
    • 2NT (12-16... lol)
      0


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PASS while the reasoning is a bit simplistic let's look at the problem from a

mathematical point of view. Let's give P a very generous 10 count and that means

we will have to probably play something at the 3 level. This means we own 18

of the 30 hcp outside hearts. Assuming we lose 2 heart tricks that means we

need to win at least 8 (for only down 1) of the last 11 tricks. The power ratio

is in our favor 3/2 but that means the tricks are likely split 7/4 in our favor.

 

Note that this assumes the opps dont x and that down 1 is to be considered a

success. That means to take action with this generally unexceptional hand we

start off with a 35% shot (we need 8/3 only have 7/4) at a decent or better

outcome if we play the hand.

 

Since we have good heart spots it is very unlikely p has any and will almost

always pull so to take action here seems doomed from the get go--at IMPS there is

so little upside and such huge risk (mitigated to only 1 board at MP) it borders

on hugely desparate to act under these conditions:)))))

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Sorry guys but I have been holding my breath for a long time about this.

 

Why is it that some people find the correct action, right after the OP revealed pd's hand, 7 and 9 days later, and why no reply was posted in this topic until then? I have seen those who replied now, was in BBF last 1 week and posting to other topics.

 

I do not mean that the comments after hands are revealed are worthless. But it really gets annoying when some of us do it a lot more than what would reasonably be considered as coincidence.

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