Is 4H a transfer to 4S?

[ArtK78]

You are in contention for the win in a sectional swiss team event. This is the last hand:

 

Swiss teams (IMPs converted to VPs). No one vul. LHO dealer.

 

AKQ97x

Kx

JTx

xx

 

The bidding:

 

(2♥) - P - (4♥) - ?

 

Your style is that a direct action over a preempt should be a good hand, if that matters. In other words, partner will not act over 2♥ without a sound hand.

[MrAce]

I'd pass. Too balanced for my taste.

[Jinksy]

I'll risk it, trying not to look nervous. If the honours are scattered, we might get away undoubled,

[Fluffy]

I wlould bid 4♠ also, even when wrong we might defend 5♥

[wank]

i'll take my chances on defence. i've got more than 2 tricks on average imo.

[whereagles]

Obv 4♠ for me.

[Fluffy]

knew I could count on you Nuno :)

[whereagles]

Hope this is not like Cardiff.. -800 to -1400 would be the outcome http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif

[Trinidad]

You win some, you lose some. I think I will win more than I lose when I accept the transfer. Chalk me up for 4♠.

 

Rik

[gnasher]

Pass looks obvious. I'm not sure why I'd be bidding. After partner's pass over 2♥ there's almost no hope that we'll make 4♠, and there's nothing about my hand that suggests it will be a cheap sacrifice.

[the hog]

Pass. Why go for a big minus?

[WesleyC]

Put me down for 4S.

 

Admittedly 4S on this hand is very risky and is probably a double dummy losing action, but you have to parlay that with the opponents actually punishing you. Its quite possible that the opponents end up with +150 on a layout where 4H is a lucky make.

[PhilKing]

Pass. I just can't see much upside to 4♠ here.

[gordontd]

Pass looks obvious. I'm not sure why I'd be bidding. After partner's pass over 2♥ there's almost no hope that we'll make 4♠,

Since we are told "Your style is that a direct action over a preempt should be a good hand", I think it's quite easy to construct hands where partner won't act and 4S is cold. You may still be right about it not being likely enough, but I think "almost no hope" is a big overbid.

[gszes]

4S

 

Far too easy for p to have been silenced when holding only 2 spades to let

this one go by. Rho gave no thought to slam search so P is rated to hold

at least something over there. We have few worries p will go beyond 4s since

they could take no action over 2h. We have many ways to come out ahead (and a

fair number of really good results) by bidding 4s and not all that many results

that will be a huge negative. It is not all that easy to x an unlimited opp

with no trump tricks:)

[jogs]

Pass.

 

As MrAce says,"too flat". Also don't like the location of the ♥K.

[AyunuS]

All your out of trump cards are likely losers, especially when LHO probably has A♥. Given the bidding I'd say your partner has at most 10 points, so I wouldn't count on your partner covering more than 2 of your 7 losers. So you'd probably lose ~5. I'd try to break it down to something like this:

down 4 / -800: ~10% -9 IMPs (-.9)

down 3 / -500: ~30% -2 IMPs (-.6)

down 2 / -300: ~50% +3 IMPs (+1.5)

down 1 / -100: ~10% +8 IMPs (+0.8)

Everything else: about 0%.

 

Add up the numbers on the right and you'll see that the total is positive +0.8 so it seems like a gain on average to me.

[cherdano]

All your out of trump cards are likely losers, especially when LHO probably has A♥. Given the bidding I'd say your partner has at most 10 points, so I wouldn't count on your partner covering more than 2 of your 7 losers. So you'd probably lose ~5. I'd try to break it down to something like this:

down 4 / -800: ~10% -9 IMPs (-.9)

down 3 / -500: ~30% -2 IMPs (-.6)

down 2 / -300: ~50% +3 IMPs (+1.5)

down 1 / -100: ~10% +8 IMPs (+0.8)

Everything else: about 0%.

 

Add up the numbers on the right and you'll see that the total is positive +0.8 so it seems like a gain on average to me.

 

How do you know 4H is making?

[brettnj]

Pass. Why go for a big minus?

 

I agree -- you have what appears to be 7 outside losers. Down 4 cannot be good. Bidding 4 spades is too unilateral.

Edited January 3, 2015 by diana_eva
closed quote

[rogerclee]

I would definitely bid, I think down 2 or 3 undoubled is definitely in the game when they make 4H.

 

Just out of curiosity to the passers, suppose I told you that you will take 7 or 8 tricks in 4S. What percent of the time do you think you are getting doubled? I would think about 40% of the time we are down 2 and maybe 70% of the time we are down 3.

[kevincline]

If 4♠ is -4 then EW can make 6♥. But with two key cards in my hand, my teammates won't bid 6♥. I'm still bidding 4♠ though. 4♠ will make opposite many hands that couldn't overcall or double. And it gives the opponents a chance to go wrong.

[Free]

I'd bid 4♠, in most cases we have 7 tricks on our own (after a ♥ start) and partner may bring something as well. Moreover, I don't think we can easily beat 4♥, so 2 off or better will be ok. And nobody says we'll get doubled ofcourse.

[MrAce]

I would definitely bid, I think down 2 or 3 undoubled is definitely in the game when they make 4H.

 

Just out of curiosity to the passers, suppose I told you that you will take 7 or 8 tricks in 4S. What percent of the time do you think you are getting doubled? I would think about 40% of the time we are down 2 and maybe 70% of the time we are down 3.

 

 

-What % of the time are you expecting to bid 4♠ and make?

-What % of the time are you expecting them to make 4♥?

-What % of the time are you expecting that you will be going down undoubled, stealing a cold 4♥ from them?

-What % of the time are you expecting your pd to make accurate slam decisions when you bid 4♠ over their 4♥, since you obviously expanded the hand types way too much that can overcall 4♠? (W/R pd can perhaps guess you may be saving)

-What % of the time are you expecting pd to be on same page with you when they bid 5♥ and know when to dbl, when to pass and when to bid?

 

After figuring out the imp exchange for all these then you can add what % of the time we will be doubled at the top of it. Idk the answer to which would come on top in long run. But if you think passers are only worried about being doubled when they bid 4♠ and this is the only reason why they pass, you are underestimating the reasons behind passing imho.

 

Welcome back btw, I missed ya. http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif

[rogerclee]

I didn't mean that the % of the time I get doubled in 4S when I am wrong to bid it is the only important factor, it's just that if my estimates are somewhat accurate then to me it is just really obvious to bid 4S and see what happens. There is also huge correlation in the sense that I have no problem with down 3 doubled, obviously it's a minus position but to me if I'm down 3 doubled then they were overwhelming favorites to make 420 or 450.

 

To me it is unnecessary to think about IMP expectation down to the last detail, just that to me, 4S is a big winner anytime LHO has a max 2H opener, since it is really likely that nobody can double but they are making 4H. If my opponents were very aggressive then I would pass since the % chance that 4S is a phantom, doubled or not, is very high -- and the chance that I am doubled in 4S is also much higher than usual.