Yet Another Pre-Empt From Opps

[MrAce]

If 4♠ is going light, 5♣ is probably light too. You might get away with a reasonable sacrifice if 4♥ makes, but I would let sleeping dogs lie and pass. A bit wussy I know, but trying to explain to your teammates a 1100 or similar penalty (if you were playing a team match) is not worth the hassle.

 

The better your teammates the less hassle you will deal with, regardless of your choice in this hand. Only those who has little or no clue will raise hell over your decision if it turns out to be wrong. Some people play to win, rather than trying to avoid the hassle. That does not mean you have to put your 2 cents into every auction of course...

 

As we see in replies, some people look at this hand and see 8 hcp. And they naively believe it needs 13-15 hcp and 4 card spades in order to make game for us.

When I look at it, I see a void heart when opponents opened and raised to game in hearts. I also see a 6-5 hand, holding the boss suit. I also see all my 8 hcps are in my long suits.

Some imagine that RHO may have raised with only 2 hearts and a giant defensive hand while I imagine a lot of other hands too besides feared half trap half making intended 4♥. Including game for both sides.

 

Of course both actions can fail miserably. But I have a simple question to passers and you. Imagine a team game, 20 boards. You will hold exactly this same hand, and in all 20 boards LHO will have a vulnerable 2♥ opener, pd will pass, and RHO will raise to 4 vulnerable. Opponents will not know that you hold the same hand so they can not set you up intentionally and they will have their bid for this auction. You are allowed to choose pass or 4♠. Since you talked about money bridge, which one would you put your money on to come on top after 20 boards?

[bdegrande]

BINGO!! Although I agree with the comment that distribution matters as well. Is not the question still pds pass? If I was playing in a pick up game and had a pd who passed this with 13-15 point count and 4 spades. they would go on the blacklist.

 

Points don't matter, there are only a few key cards that are meaningful. Game could be cold opposite lots of hands partner wouldn't dream of bidding on ♠KJXX and a singleton club could be enough. On many other hands 4♠ or 5♣ could be a good save against a making game.

[PhilKing]

OK, I have dug up a few similar hands from the database, so try this quiz. On each hand the bidding starts 2♥-pass-4♥:

 

1. Game All. ♠ KQJ95 ♥ A ♦ T3 ♣ J9643

 

2. Vul v non vul. ♠ QT862 ♥ A6 ♦ 3 ♣ AQ872

 

3. Non vul v vul. ♠ KQ876 ♥ 96 ♦ 6 ♣ AQ832

 

4. Vul v non vul. 2♥ = Fantunes.♠ KT743 ♥ J ♦ QT ♣ AQJ84

 

So, do you feel lucky?

[Jinksy]

I feel lucky on all of them, though the Fantunes one at that vul scares me. Probably not enough to make me pass, though.

 

ETA - actually, sod that. On 2 I'll pass at this vul.

 

ETA ETA - Before you give the results, I'd like to know your selection method for the hands, though :P

[kuhchung]

i admit, all four of PhilKing's hands terrify me. for the actual hand I think 4S is clear. so if PK is implying that 4S worked on those 5-5 hands...

[PhilKing]

I feel lucky on all of them, though the Fantunes one at that vul scares me. Probably not enough to make me pass, though.

 

ETA - actually, sod that. On 2 I'll pass at this vul.

 

ETA ETA - Before you give the results, I'd like to know your selection method for the hands, though :P

 

I just picked all four occasions where there was a marginal 2-suiter with 5 spades.

[masonbarge]

I'm not saying that just the 5 spades are the distribution - you've got an overall distributional hand - if you were 5332 then sure, that comment makes sense. You're 6/5 - come alive!

 

When the heart ace hits the table those clubs are going to be garbage unless you can pull trumps.

[ArtK78]

OK, I have dug up a few similar hands from the database, so try this quiz. On each hand the bidding starts 2♥-pass-4♥:

 

1. Game All. ♠ KQJ95 ♥ A ♦ T3 ♣ J9643

 

2. Vul v non vul. ♠ QT862 ♥ A6 ♦ 3 ♣ AQ872

 

3. Non vul v vul. ♠ KQ876 ♥ 96 ♦ 6 ♣ AQ832

 

4. Vul v non vul. 2♥ = Fantunes.♠ KT743 ♥ J ♦ QT ♣ AQJ84

 

So, do you feel lucky?

4♠ on all of them. On all 4 hands, it is quite possible that both sides can make 9 or 10 tricks (possibly more).

 

Aside from everything else, the 4♠ bid may push them to 5♥.

[steve2005]

Aside from everything else, the 4♠ bid may push them to 5♥.

 

Yes this gives you 2 ways to win. Opps may have been stretching themselves on distribution and may find it hard to double you even if you are going for a number

 

 

 

 

 

[the hog]

This hand will pass if you bid 4s? Dream on, Rik.

[johnu]

I found the split on poster opinions interesting. With few exceptions, the posters I consider to be advanced or expert chose 4♠, while there are a lot of new posters I don't know anything about who passed.

[GrahamJson]

Other posters have made much of having a heart void. This may not be such a great holding as it makes it more likely that partner is sitting with KQ10x or better and can't wait to defend. In many respects xxx would be a better holding as then partner is likely to be short and have a fit for one of your suits.

[GrahamJson]

Ok, if partner had xxx that would give him 14 cards, but you get the idea. Voids are great once you have found a fit, but in competitive situations like this they are often warnings of a misfit.

[chasetb]

Ok, if partner had xxx that would give him 14 cards, but you get the idea. Voids are great once you have found a fit, but in competitive situations like this they are often warnings of a misfit.

Well, when opponents have a guaranteed 9+ card fit, then you have AT LEAST one 8-card fit, and probably two fits, therefore, it cannot be a misfit! I bid 4♠ pretty quickly, because 10 tricks is easier than 11; if we don't have a Spade fit, I expect us to have a major Club fit and we'll find it then. If not, -500 is still better than -620.

[GrahamJson]

I don't trust oppo that much. These days players will open 2H on Kxxxx because "it's a bidders game", so there is no guarantee oppo have a nine card fit. Some days they may not even have eight. Yes, 4S could easily be the winning bid, but on average I think Pass is the percentage action. There is also partnership confidence. Partners aren't generally happy if you go for 1,100 by taking unilateral action when they re sitting on HKQJx. They are more likely to understand not coming in at the four level on Qxxxx. But maybe I'm still attached too much to Reece's ideas.

[PhilKing]

I don't trust oppo that much. These days players will open 2H on Kxxxx because "it's a bidders game", so there is no guarantee oppo have a nine card fit. Some days they may not even have eight.

 

From the database ...

 

The level of fit when the auction started 2♥-p-4♥, excluding all non-standard twos (Fantunes, Muideberg etc) was as follows:

 

11, 9, 9, 8, 11, 8, 9, 9, 8, 9, 10, 11, 10, 8

[the hog]

Well, when opponents have a guaranteed 9+ card fit, then you have AT LEAST one 8-card fit, and probably two fits, therefore, it cannot be a misfit! I bid 4♠ pretty quickly, because 10 tricks is easier than 11; if we don't have a Spade fit, I expect us to have a major Club fit and we'll find it then. If not, -500 is still better than -620.

Only if you play against idiots. If 4h was bid as a sac and 4s is wrong but 5c is right do you seriously expect your expert opp to x? Are you living in a dream world?

[MrAce]

Only if you play against idiots. If 4h was bid as a sac and 4s is wrong but 5c is right do you seriously expect your expert opp to x? Are you living in a dream world?

 

Yep, and opponents see our hand and pass when it is right and dbl when it is right also, We can't win against them if they are that accurate in all critical decisions anyway, regardless of what we do.

[steve2005]

I don't trust oppo that much. These days players will open 2H on Kxxxx because "it's a bidders game", so there is no guarantee oppo have a nine card fit. Some days they may not even have eight. Yes, 4S could easily be the winning bid, but on average I think Pass is the percentage action. There is also partnership confidence. Partners aren't generally happy if you go for 1,100 by taking unilateral action when they re sitting on HKQJx. They are more likely to understand not coming in at the four level on Qxxxx. But maybe I'm still attached too much to Reece's ideas.

Even solid citizens who only open on 6♥ partner can raise on 2♥ so 9-card ♥ fit not a guarantee. But I still bid 4♠.

[masonbarge]

 

As we see in replies, some people look at this hand and see 8 hcp. And they naively believe it needs 13-15 hcp and 4 card spades in order to make game for us.

 

That's not at all what I meant. Give me a little credit.

 

Your 8HCP are may be concentrated in your suits, but it's still 8 HCP. Or put another way, out of 20 HCP in your suits, you have less than half. You have no idea where the ace and king of spades are.

 

If you pass you will certainly lose a double game swing sometimes, but if you bid you're going to go -800 (or more) in some cases where the opponents are headed down.

 

The state of the match might make a difference. If you think you're behind, the argument for bidding becomes stronger. But it's an odds-off gamble. If you have confidence in your team, a pass is better.

[GrahamJson]

I agree with the last comment. It sounds to me like 4H was bid to make, in which case the distribution may come as an unpleasant surprise to declarer. I have seen it many times.

 

My observation on BBO is that players get too busy. They often get away with it because oppo get too busy too, for example by sacrificing ahead of partner. Against good oppo they would do so well.

[cherdano]

The state of the match might make a difference. If you think you're behind, the argument for bidding becomes stronger. But it's an odds-off gamble. If you have confidence in your team, a pass is better.

If your opponent at the other table in the same seat is a strong player, then passing is the risky move, and 4♠ is the bid that is likely to lead to a push.

[eagles123]

well bidders win here:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sjhakq87d9875ct53&w=sak53hjt65dqj6cj6&n=st84h9432dakt3ck9&e=sq9762hd42caq8742&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=2hp4hppp]399|300[/hv]

 

 

I have learnt a lot from this

 

thanks,

 

Eagles

[Cthulhu D]

From the database ...

 

The level of fit when the auction started 2♥-p-4♥, excluding all non-standard twos (Fantunes, Muideberg etc) was as follows:

 

11, 9, 9, 8, 11, 8, 9, 9, 8, 9, 10, 11, 10, 8

 

What was the 'correct' answer on the other hands you posted?

 

This hand is interesting - but you have a larger sample size.

[MrAce]

 

..... But it's an odds-off gamble. If you have confidence in your team, a pass is better.

 

If I had teammates who are passing a 6-5 hand with spades and void in heart when they opened and raised hearts to game, vulnerable, and wait for the perfect hand to bid 4♠ each time they opened and raised to 4♥....I would not have much confidence in my team tbh. I am simply stating my feelings, whether I may be right or wrong and you obviously have different opinions about the matter.

 

I am not that aggressive for all 6-5 hands in same situation, as you can see in another thread by Diana, I passed J KJxxx KT876 x love all, when LHO opened 4♠ and it came to me. But spades over hearts has significant advantage for obvious reasons and rejecting to use it seems weird to me. And believe me I am not talking due to result in this hand. I said what I had to say b4 result was posted. But bidding has so many other ways to win, including the ones where bidding actually was wrong, since opponents do not see your hand and what you bid 4♠ with. http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/wink.gif