Final decision time

[inquiry]

[hv=pc=n&s=skjt9haq65dak5cq6&d=n&v=0&b=1&a=1hp2n(jacoby-like)p3h(6%2Bhearts%2C%20something%20more%20than%20min%20no%20singleton%20or%20void)p4np5d(3%20keys)p5s(king%20ask%2C%20assumption%20is%20we%20have% hearts,no short suit extra2010%2B%20!h%20fit%20so%20no%20queen%20ask)p6c(one%20king)p6d(side%20queen%20ask)p6h(no%20side%20queen)p?]270|400|North has shown:

 

 

• -- 6-7 hearts
• -- No singleton or void
• -- 3 key cards
• -- One side sit king
• -- No side suit queens

 

 

3♥ = 6-7 hearts, no singleton or void; 5♦ = 3 keys, 5♠= king ask because the assumptionis we have a 10+ card fit, no queen ask or show is used on this auction, 6♣ = one side king, 6♦ ask side queens, 6♥ no side queen

 

 

In theory, after being asked for side queens, north would blast 7♥ with a seven card suit, in practice he has never remembered such. But lets assume he has only six hearts.

[/hv]

 

 

 

 

If you take too long to bid at the 6 level, and your partner wakes up to a 7th heart in his hand, and corrects to the seven level, would do you anticipate a director call.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[eagles123]

delete

[TWO4BRIDGE]

What am I missing ?

6C shows 1 outside K -- obviously the ♣K .

 

Doesn't that add up to 13 tricks ?

2 Sp

6 Hts

2 Diam

3 Cl

 

Bid 7NT over 6C .

[eagles123]

ah i see the problem now lol, partner is some 3622 so 2 to 1 odds AK clubs is tight?

 

i guess we still have the option of spade finesse :)

[manudude03]

I'm choosing 7H. Partner's most likely distribution is 2-6-2-3. However, when he has a doubleton club, we have a spade guess, likely with a few clues courtesy of the opponents.

[Jinksy]

I'm bidding 7♥ to cover against the possibility of his AK♣ being doubleton. The tiny risk of a first round ruff is surely outweighed by the chance that he's 1642, and we have a ruffing finesse for the contract.

 

ETA: We might also gain if he's 2632 with Jxx in Ds. I think then it's better odds than a straight finesse to play to drop the QS in three rounds of the suit then try to squeeze E in the pointy suits if it doesn't show up.

[Jinksy]

Btw, maybe I'm channeling mikeh, but why did I blast RKCB if I didn't know what I was going to do over all the responses? I seem to have given up a bunch of cueing room, and whateever 3N might have been.

 

On this bidding I deserve to hear 5♠ over 4N when he has AQx KJxxxxx Q Jx.

[wank]

 

On this bidding I deserve to hear 5♠ over 4N when he has AQx KJxxxxx Q Jx.

 

i presume 5s is impossible in their methods with 2 keycards (QH is known to be unnecessary). Still, over 5H, you wouldn't be in a very good position.

[ggwhiz]

I can't imagine not bidding 7 and can imagine hesitating even less. I'm certainly expecting a Director call and a rollback.

[nige1]

Partner has 6+ ♥, 3 keys, another K, no singleton or void, so 7 is on a ♠-finesse at worst and is often cold. If you bid a slow 6♥ and partner then bids a successful 7♥, you would expect an adverse ruling and, perhaps, a PP for partner. So far, however, none of the pollees are in any such danger :)

YOU: ♠ K J T 9 ♥ A Q 6 5 ♦ A K x ♣ Q 6

OXO1 ♠ A x ♥ K x x x x x ♦ x x ♣ A K x

OXO2 ♠ A x ♥ K x x x x x ♦ x x x ♣ A K

OXO3 ♠ A x x ♥ K x x x x x ♦ x x ♣ A K

[whereagles]

Bid 7. It's like 75%:

if pard has ♠Q it's cold.

if he hasn't, maybe we can finesse it lol

[Fluffy]

Bidding grand is obvious, but playing in hearts will hardly be better, can only thinkg of ♠Ax ♥KJxxxx ♦J10x ♣AK where we can try to ruff out ♠Q before taking a diamond finesse. I think this is too specific, and avoiding a ruff at trick one might be better.

 

So at MPs 7NT is obvious, at IMPs not so much but I don't think it will matter.

[chasetb]

I would have bid 7NT after counting to 13 within 5 seconds, without thinking about the likely chance that partner has ♣ AK and NOT 2722 shape, giving me only 12 cold tricks.

 

I don't know if you play this, but something I do over the 3♥ bid is use 3♠ as a shape ask. You can set it up how you want, but I go:

3NT = 3622 // 4♣ = 2632 // 4♦ = 2623 // 4♥ = 2722, and min for your 3♥ bid // 4♠ + = non-min 2722, showing KC

 

If you luckily own 17+ HCP and partner tries to sign-off, you can directly answer KC. This way, you can find out shape when needed, and bid those perfect-fitting slams on less than 30 HCP.

[Jinksy]

Bid 7. It's like 75%:

if pard has ♠Q it's cold.

if he hasn't, maybe we can finesse it lol

 

P has denied the Q♠.

[Jinksy]

Bidding grand is obvious, but playing in hearts will hardly be better, can only thinkg of ♠Ax ♥KJxxxx ♦J10x ♣AK where we can try to ruff out ♠Q before taking a diamond finesse. I think this is too specific, and avoiding a ruff at trick one might be better.

 

So at MPs 7NT is obvious, at IMPs not so much but I don't think it will matter.

 

The chance of a ruff must be small with 10 cards between the suits. You also have the layout I mentioned above, and another small chance I just thought of - finding P with 3622 and an opp showing out on a ruff of the third ♦, marking the S finesse.

 

At MP 7N is prob better in a strong room, but most of the time I bid MP grands, I prefer to bid the one I'm most likely to make.

[NickRW]

I think I would have bid 7, probably hearts unless MP scoring.

 

If I had chosen 6, I am not sure whether opps would call the director when P woke up to holding 7 hearts - I would hope not and I would *not* expect a rollback - what the devil is partner supposed to think with a 7th trump after all this poking around for a grand anyway?!

[gszes]

7NT

 

First NT vs hearts. The only real benefit of hearts is trying to ruff out

the spade Q which is likely to succeed in only 36% of the relevant cases

far less than 50% we would have for a spade finesse. Fluffy notes an additional

benefit if opener happens to hold dia JTx but I did not bother to look and see

if that holding would come even remotely close to covering the massive 14%

difference. Hearts also benefits from 70 spades (if opener has 2) since we

would have an assured finesse or ruffing finesse but that is barely 1/2%.

 

With 12 top tricks we can easily imagine making 13 on at worst a spade finesse

(either way) so maybe a tad above 50%, finessing the player short in hearts, and

while that is not even close to the recommended 80% for a grand the roughly 33.3%

chance of opener holding 3 clubs pushes our chances to well around 85%. I say go for it.

[Jinksy]

The only real benefit of hearts is trying to ruff out

the spade Q which is likely to succeed in only 36% of the relevant cases

far less than 50% we would have for a spade finesse.

 

Bollocks.

 

Give opener A KJxxxx xxxx AK (not a hand on which he'd show ♠ shortage in my book), and if the queen doesn't drop in 2 rounds, 7♥ is on the ruffing finesse while 7N looks like it needs E to have 5♦s and the ♠Q.

Give opener Ax KJxxxx JTx AK, and we can try to ruff out the SQ, then fall back on the D finesse, whereas in 7N we just have to pick one.

Give opener Axx KJxxxx xx AK, and we can ruff the third D to see if either opp shows out before deciding which way to play the ♠ finesse.

 

Are you seriously claiming the combined odds of these add up to less than the chance of a first round ruff when, (unless P is 1642), the biggest chance of that is P with 3622, meaning Ss need a mere 6-0 split the wrong way round (approx 0.0035% by my reckoning + Wikipedia. Plus the added chance of ♣s 9-0 or ♦s 7-0, pushing it up to a meaty ~0.0052%, assuming the opps passed throughout NV)

 

while that is not even close to the recommended 80% for a grand the roughly 33.3%

chance of opener holding 3 clubs pushes our chances to well around 85%. I say go for it.

 

By my calculation (before accounting for the possibilities of 2722 and 1642), it's more like 66%. I dunno where this 'recommended 80%' comes from, though. It depends a lot on context, but for most purposes, I'll happily take 66% + the extra chances for 7♥s.

[Trinidad]

One advantage of 7NT is that you become declarer. The opponents know everything about partner's hand and nothing about yours, other than that you have 4 hearts and -supposedly- a hand good enough to bid 7NT.

 

In 7♥, there is no hope that the defense will err when they know partner's hand and see yours in dummy. In 7NT your hand will be hidden. It will be harder for the opponents to decide which cards to hold on too when you start running the heart suit.

 

Rik

[MrAce]

One advantage of 7NT is that you become declarer. The opponents know everything about partner's hand and nothing about yours, other than that you have 4 hearts and -supposedly- a hand good enough to bid 7NT.

 

In 7♥, there is no hope that the defense will err when they know partner's hand and see yours in dummy. In 7NT your hand will be hidden. It will be harder for the opponents to decide which cards to hold on too when you start running the heart suit.

 

Rik

 

Unfortunately, playing the hand from unknown side is not a big advantage, if at all, in grandslams. Forget about expert opponents, any average player will easily construct the hands to figure where your problem is due to no claim in grandslams.

 

I think if you believe 7♥ has better odds, then you should really not worry about them seeing your hand in defense.

[WesleyC]

An interesting phenomenon on hands like this is that once you know partner has specifically the AK of clubs and 6322 shape, they become LESS likely to hold AK tight and more likely to also hold a small club.

 

To describe this in another way: 9 of partner's cards are already known: ♥Kxxxxx, ♠A, ♣AK. This means there are 4 small cards which remain to be distributed among the other suits. These small cards are more likely to be distributed evenly among the suits which in turn makes it more likely partner will have a third clubs.

 

I did a quick sim on the hand and found the approximate chance that partner holds each shape is:

 

2623 ~ 59%

3622 ~ 24%

2632 ~ 17%

 

So grand-slam is at least 80%.