blackshoe Posted December 16, 2014 Report Share Posted December 16, 2014 Seriously? You really think that aphorisms by a writer of science fiction should be seen as guiding principles? Heinlein's ideas, as usually uttered by his character Lazurus Long, appealed to me greatly when I was in my late teens, but I've grown up since then.No, I don't think that. I thought it was an amusing juxtaposition given the comment which caused me to think of it. If you're implying I need to grow up, well, you're about 50 years too late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mycroft Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 I understand the need to respond. I really do. But I look at two other things as well: So, we responded. How's that working out?We've killed more Americans responding than the hijackers did. What did that get us? Now, of course, the body count is right; tens more of the uniformed enemy are dead as well (and many more civilians). Do any of their survivors have feelings? Do they feel like we do? Of course they do. Do they want revenge? Of course they do. And when the guy in the black outfit comes up and explains how he can get that revenge, what happens?[*]The U.S. has spent *how* much with the whole DHS thing in the last 13 years? And how much has business paid, 30 minutes of aggravation at a time, because of the new regulations (never mind you and me)? And the rest of the world? And the "no, you haven't done anything wrong, you just can't get on this aircraft. I can't tell you why, I can't tell you how to fix it"? And the secrets? And the loss of freedom (which of course can't be quantified, because that's a secret, too)? And the damage to our countries' reputations because of some of the things our reactions caused us to do? Come on, al-Qaida *won*, man - [Edit, added: and it cost them effectively nothing after Sept 12; we did it to ourselves]. Two middle fingers and a "you can't get me to inconvenience my life even one iota with your silly games"; where would that have got us? (My guess is "different problems", but I'm almost certain it wouldn't include "a Twin Towers every year", especially because of the two [Edit, missed: things Schneier says was critical: locking cockpit doors during flight, and the knowledge passengers have now that, in a kidnap situation, it's no longer best to sit back and wait for release.] Especially if, somewhere, some time, "legally" (at least within the bounds of Cold War-era, or Bismarck-era international relations), there was a Seal Team Six... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 If we become convinced that the Taliban/Isis/jihadists/whoever only want to behead their own people and shoot their own school children than no doubt wewill stay out of it. Americans have no plan or desire to rescue the world. We have ignored genocide in Africa. We ignored the Iraq-Iran war in the 80s, except for giving Saddam some satellite intelligence so that he could make more effective use of his poison gas. Americans have a long history of staying out of other people's troubles. We stayed out of the European war in the middle of the last century until the Japanese insisted that we get into it. We stayed out of most of the Great War also, I am not really sure why we got in near the end. In the current situation we hope to do something, maybe, as long as it doesn't actually involve any ground troops. We are drawing various lines of various colors here and there, but everyone understands that we don't really mean it. And are al-Qaeda et al winning? Yes, I would say so. No doubt they think so, and that helps with recruiting. If we really are a bunch of war crazy nuts here, we are some of the most ineffective war crazy nuts in the long history of war crazy nuts. But we are not war crazy nuts. Most of us are perfectly content to sit back while Syrians of one persuasion kill Syrians of another persuasion. As long as they do it in Syria. We desperately need to find our way out of this. Assad is psychologically equipped to deal with jihadists, as was Saddam. We are not, we just aren't. And I hope we never become ready to go down that path. Syrians, Egyptians, I raqis, they all have all been torturing each other for ages. They are up for this sort of thing, we aren't. We are in over our heads and we need to find the exit. If just packing up and going home is truly practical, I am all for it. I wish I believed that this were so. Convince us it is so, and we are out of there tomorrow, Sitting back and watching while other people kill each other is totally consistent with American history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 Obama's response to ISIS is making me question this. President Obama puzzles me - how can someone so adept at getting elected be so poor at framing himself and his party in the best light? Bill Clinton was masterful at framing - Clinton would frame being against a bill that increased dairy farm subsidies so cheese could be given to low income families as being against "feeding children". How can you be against feeding children? But Obama attaches an "us" to the Iraq problems, making the war his and ours instead of theirs. He should have framed responsibility for that war directly on the new conservative hawks like Paul Wolfowitz and Dick Cheney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PassedOut Posted December 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 If just packing up and going home is truly practical, I am all for it. I wish I believed that this were so. Convince us it is so, and we are out of there tomorrow, Sitting back and watching while other people kill each other is totally consistent with American history.I think "totally" might be an overbid. I remember Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq, and the US hasn't been timid about using military force in the past either: List of wars involving the United States Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackshoe Posted December 17, 2014 Report Share Posted December 17, 2014 We stayed out of most of the Great War also, I am not really sure why we got in near the end.Two reasons: The increased German submarine warfare offensive starting in early 1917, targeting US ships, when we were officially neutral, and the Zimmerman telegram, in which Germany offered Mexico a military alliance against the United States. Both of these outraged the country, and Wilson asked for, and Congress granted, a declaration of war against Germany on April 6, 1917. BTW, the Germans increased their submarine warfare offense knowing that it would likely bring the US into the war. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 I think "totally" might be an overbid. I remember Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq, and the US hasn't been timid about using military force in the past either: List of wars involving the United States War is an ever present danger. I would be very happy for us to not be involved in any military way in the middle east or anywhere else. You, I and I believe virtually everyone would be very pleased to keep a low or non-existent military profile. Let us hope that we find a way to do it. I won't put words in your mouth, or at least I won't try to slant them, but I gather you are saying that the way to become militarily dis-engaged is, basically, to bring the troops home. Just do it. Perhaps that is so. Sometimes that works, sometimes it emboldens those who are not at all shy about the use of force. In Africa, we let people kill each other. I won't say that we don't care, but we don't care much. Certainly not enough to do anything about it. We gave it a try in Somalia a long time back, we got burned, we stay out. In the middle east there are two differences. We have a commitment to Israel and we need oil. The latter problem, over time, can be solved. The former can't. Well, I guess we could tell the Israelius that they are on their own. They have numes, they can defend themselves as they see fit. Not a great solution. I want out of the middle east. I want out. I want out. So does just about everyone I know. It's a trap, nothing good will come of anything there. What is it Joe Walsh sings? Oh yes. "it's hard to leave when you can't find the door". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PassedOut Posted December 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 I won't put words in your mouth, or at least I won't try to slant them, but I gather you are saying that the way to become militarily dis-engaged is, basically, to bring the troops home. Just do it. Perhaps that is so. Sometimes that works, sometimes it emboldens those who are not at all shy about the use of force.I don't oppose providing US air support to people who are fighting off aggressive invaders. But the fight has to be theirs, not ours. We do need to preserve a strong defense, especially considering the amount of rage we've aroused. We do (in my opinion) need to strike back hard at, specifically, those who strike us. It was a huge mistake not to do that, and only that, after the 9/11 attacks. It was in large part that weakness of the US administration that emboldened our enemies, and the ISIS situation we face now was the inevitable -- and foreseen (in general terms, anyway) -- result of our attack on Iraq. We might, and likely will, face additional terrorist attacks. I see no evidence that sending in US ground troops to fight ISIS will reduce the chances for that one bit. On the contrary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Ken, how can you say that it is consistent with US history to sit back and watch? Ok I suppose you could say that USA doesn't fight wars without reason. But there is always a reason to find. Even north korea or North Vietnam didn't threaten the US. Kosovo, well, milosevic was an asshole but when even the European nato partners didn't care, why should USA? I am not complaining, it was one of the few wars which I actually think were justified. But it just shows that you guys are happier getting involved than we are. Same with middle east. Isis doesn't thread usa who gets most of her oil from own wells or other American countries. Isis also helps securing Israël by diverting attention from the Palestine problem. EU has some vague intetest in the middle east because of oil and refugees although it is not clear how best to pursue them. But I think if I were American I would think that somebody else can save the middle east if they want. Panama? Ok the president might have been a drug dealer but so what? He didn't even shoot American tourists. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 To a Muslim terrorist, there can be only two outcomes to Jihad: we infidels all convert to Islam, and submit to Shari'a law, or we all die. We infidels, at least most of the ones I know, are not going to convert to Islam. For the Jihadist, that leaves only one option: we all die (or maybe become slaves, I don't know). For the infidels, there are two counters to that, at least in theory: 1) they all die, or 2) we somehow convince them to change their minds. I confess I would prefer the latter. Unfortunately, I don't see a way forward to that second option. If we do decide it's to be war, though, we should go all out*, quit pussy-footing around, find the terrorists and their associates, and destroy them. And when we're done, no "Marshall Plan" either, at least not for countries that harbor or actively aid the terrorists. It's harsh, yes, but I think the situation calls for harsh. It does not call for torture or any similar actions. * and war should be formally declared by Congress. And yet, if we cannot convince the Jihadists to change, what other choice do we have? Do you really believe this crap you are spouting or are you tro;;ing/? If the former, you are a nutter, if the latter ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Ken, how can you say that it is consistent with US history to sit back and watch? Ok I suppose you could say that USA doesn't fight wars without reason. But there is always a reason to find. Even north korea or North Vietnam didn't threaten the US. Kosovo, well, milosevic was an asshole but when even the European nato partners didn't care, why should USA? I am not complaining, it was one of the few wars which I actually think were justified. But it just shows that you guys are happier getting involved than we are. Same with middle east. Isis doesn't thread usa who gets most of her oil from own wells or other American countries. Isis also helps securing Israël by diverting attention from the Palestine problem. EU has some vague interest in the middle east because of oil and refugees although it is not clear how best to pursue them. But I think if I were American I would think that somebody else can save the middle east if they want. Panama? Ok the president might have been a drug dealer but so what? He didn't even shoot American tourists. Nothing is absolute, of course, but I think I am closer to right than wrong. I was born in early 1939, before the invasion of Poland later that year. We entered the war ni late 1941 after Japan bombed Pearl Harbor and Germany declared war on us. in between, there were several countries that could hae used our assistance. We declined. After the war, France was hoping for our help in Indo-China. We declined. During the Suez crisis, as I recall although I have not looked it up, England and France were both quite upset with us for declining to be more forceful. We stayed out of European struggles in Africa, and after the Europeans left we have stayed out of various genocidal campaigns there. There have, of course, been examples in the other direction. Understatement is acknowledged here. Where are we headed? That's a good question. Everything in my life leads me to conclude that Americans have no appetite for war. Your phrase " if I were American I would think that somebody else can save the middle east if they want." resonated strongly with me and with everyone. Really it is not just Americans who are struggling with what to do. I was reading the other day that the UK is in a bit of a quandry over what to do about citizens who went off to fight in Syria, some of them making vidoes urging their fellow citizens at home to take action, Some of these folks are now coming back home, or rather thay wish to. There is, apparently, some question about this. For some reason, making videos urging people to blow things up is not regarded by everyone as an example of protected free speech. What to do? I give no advice here. There are people seriously interested in destruction, we have to cope as best we can. The question before the country is: Can we wish evveryone in the middle east the best of luck, pack our bags, and catch the next flight out? I can absolutely guarantee you that this would have great appeal to almost every American. We will all suffer through the ambiguities of the Obama presidency, but I think that by the end of 1916 we will have decided on an answer to this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mycroft Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 The U.S. entered the war in early 1940, if not 1939. It just didn't *declare war* or put uniformed servicemen in the line of fire until they got stung. Made a pretty penny out of it, too; as well as shepherding enough resources and enough tech to exit the war as a superpower. Of course, the ones the U.S. *did* put in the line of fire got, and get, minimal recognition (mostly because they weren't given anything to shoot back with, I guess). Everything in my life leads me to conclude that Americans have an infinite appetite for war - as long as their children aren't fighting it, or at least as long as we have such a technological advantage that our human losses are ignorable, and we "are winning". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 If we did not declare war and we did not put uniformed people in the line of fire, that is what is usually, I think, called not being at war. Yes, some guys enlisted in the RAF, and we shipped supplies to Britain, but really we were not at war, at least not as I would use that phrase. Before Pearl Harbor, we were not at war. After Pearl Harbor, we were. I seriously doubt that any soldier, or anyone else, was confused about the difference. I imagine it is correct that most everyone understood that it was just a matter of time, but not many were rushing into it. We went to war because we really were not given a choice. That's the same reason England went to war. It was not Oh goody, we get to go to war. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PassedOut Posted December 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 If we did not declare war and we did not put uniformed people in the line of fire, that is what is usually, I think, called not being at war. Yes, some guys enlisted in the RAF, and we shipped supplies to Britain, but really we were not at war, at least not as I would use that phrase. Before Pearl Harbor, we were not at war. After Pearl Harbor, we were. I seriously doubt that any soldier, or anyone else, was confused about the difference. I imagine it is correct that most everyone understood that it was just a matter of time, but not many were rushing into it. We went to war because we really were not given a choice. That's the same reason England went to war. It was not Oh goody, we get to go to war.I don't see WWII as the template for the wars the US has fought since then. We fought the Vietnamese to block them from having the government they wanted. We invaded Iraq "at a time of our choosing." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 The U.S. entered the war in early 1940, if not 1939. It just didn't *declare war* or put uniformed servicemen in the line of fire until they got stung. Made a pretty penny out of it, too; as well as shepherding enough resources and enough tech to exit the war as a superpower. Of course, the ones the U.S. *did* put in the line of fire got, and get, minimal recognition (mostly because they weren't given anything to shoot back with, I guess). Everything in my life leads me to conclude that Americans have an infinite appetite for war - as long as their children aren't fighting it, or at least as long as we have such a technological advantage that our human losses are ignorable, and we "are winning". Any suggestions on what the USA could be doing better on the topic of terror and war in 2015? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 Any suggestions on what the USA could be doing better on the topic of terror and war in 2015?These people seem to have an idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted December 18, 2014 Report Share Posted December 18, 2014 It looks like that is from 2008, do they still recommend all of this for 2015? It looks like we did all of this for years as far as I can tell, strong policing and info gathering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 I don't see WWII as the template for the wars the US has fought since then. We fought the Vietnamese to block them from having the government they wanted. We invaded Iraq "at a time of our choosing." I agree, or largely agree. The post of mine that you cited in your response was in fact my response to Mycroft's post (good grief this gets involved) in which he claimed that the U.S. entered the European war in late 1939 or early 1940. Humpty Dumpty had something to say about the meaning of words but really I felt that was not an accurate portrayal. With regard to terrorism, I thin we are at a crossroads. I see us as not really a warlike people. You and I and others watched the Roosevelts, and no doubt TR relished war. To me much of what TR said about war sounded nuts. His views may have resonated with people at the time of the Spanish-American war, but not now I think. I caught just a portion of an NPR discussion today. It was interesting and if I can see it in its entirety I would like to. They were reporting from Islamabad on how both the Pakistani people and the Pakistani government are dealing with recent events. One of the reporters was saying he thought that the government was uncertain about how to deal with the most radical groups. A Pakistani citizen responded that the government was not at all uncertain, the government supported the Taliban. The reporter obviously didn't like this answer so he repeated that this meant that the government was uncertain. If anyone really is sure about what to do, that someone isn't me. mostly I think that involvement in the middle east is a terrible terrible trap. If we could quarantine the area, I would favor that. It is not possible to do so.So we are stuck, we are all stuck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mycroft Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Ken, I am referring, of course, to the Merchant Marine of all nations, including the U.S. And you have given evidence of my statement that their efforts and dangers got minimal recognition - "we shipped supplies to Britain", "any soldier...was confused" "or anyone else". Ask the people on the ships running the German submarine blockade (and later, and possibly worse, the Archangel Run, but that was mostly post December) - the Merchant Marine - if they were sure they weren't at war before Pearl Harbor. Then, as now, doesn't matter much to the thousand pounds of high explosive coming quickly toward you... Mike: no, not really, except what I've said above. If we admit that these tactics are doing nothing but satisfying our revenge lusts and breeding new terrorists to satisfy *their* revenge lusts, admit to the previous mistakes (including in court), and switch to a "I'm better than you, you can't touch me" strategy, in 30 or 40 years the fires will have consumed themselves and no major new ones lit to replace them. Of course, you can't get elected espousing that strategy, and you certainly can't get *re-*elected. And without the money from those who profit from U.S. Forever War (or more particularly, with it against you, promoting you as a "coward" and a "pushover" and "soft on (fill-in-the-blank)") you will quietly disappear. Realistically, I can't imagine anything we've done in the last 7 years that would change what the RAND Corporation (not exactly a "leftie liberal peacenik" organization, but also not one to ignore facts that don't support their desired argument (or avoid looking for them, either)) found in 2008. We had 5 years of post-September 11 under our belts, and we haven't really changed. If anything, instead of treating the problem more like a police problem than a military one, we seem to be treating a lot of actual police problems as military ones now (and wondering why those actors are being looked at as "the enemy" rather than the "guardians of peace"). Perhaps the only thing that can save the U.S. is a true "return to Jesus" moment (you know, the one of "the good Muslim Samaritan" and "the least of these" fame, not the "Nuke a Commie Whale for Jesus" one) or perhaps someone who knew not only that Eisenhower was right, but what to do about it now, 50 years after we ignored him. Perhaps I should be less cynical, or less caring, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barmar Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Maybe I'm looking through rose-colored glasses, but I don't see America as having an "appetite for war" (although there certainly are some legislators who do). Rather, due to our ideals and the fact that we have the most powerful military force on the planet, we've effectively become the policement for the world. If we don't do it, who will? The argument then becomes whether it needs to be done in the first place. Unfortunately, it seems like it does. The world is too small to say "What happens in the Middle East isn't our problem." When people point to Africa and say that we're not intervening there, I don't see that as an argument for also staying out of the Middle East, I think we should also try to help Africa. Of course, I know why our government treats them differently: oil. But if we were living up to our humanitarian ideals, we would be in both places (in fact, we probably should have been trying to resolve problems in Africa for a long time). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackshoe Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 If we don't do it, who will?China? Not right now, perhaps, but they would almost certainly try to fill that vacuum eventually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackshoe Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 As I see it, the difference between Africa and the Middle East, from a "US involvement" standpoint, is that Africa is a disaster waiting to happen, while the Middle East is a disaster that's already happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilkaz Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 As I see it, the difference between Africa and the Middle East, from a "US involvement" standpoint, is that Africa is a disaster waiting to happen, while the Middle East is a disaster that's already happened. FYP "while the Middle East is a disaster that will continue to happen for as long as you, I, or our children will live." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winstonm Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 It looks like that is from 2008, do they still recommend all of this for 2015? It looks like we did all of this for years as far as I can tell, strong policing and info gathering. My understanding is that a Rand comprehensive review of best tactics to use with terrorists and the threat of terrorism is not like a high school yearbook, updated every year, so I doubt there is any change in recommendations; however, there is an example, fairly recent, of not following the Rand suggestions and instead using the least productive method, i.e., military action, to combat terrorists and terrorism. If you find better information, please let us all know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Maybe I'm looking through rose-colored glasses, but I don't see America as having an "appetite for war" (although there certainly are some legislators who do). Rather, due to our ideals and the fact that we have the most powerful military force on the planet, we've effectively become the policement for the world. If we don't do it, who will? The argument then becomes whether it needs to be done in the first place. Unfortunately, it seems like it does. The world is too small to say "What happens in the Middle East isn't our problem." When people point to Africa and say that we're not intervening there, I don't see that as an argument for also staying out of the Middle East, I think we should also try to help Africa. Of course, I know why our government treats them differently: oil. But if we were living up to our humanitarian ideals, we would be in both places (in fact, we probably should have been trying to resolve problems in Africa for a long time).what humanitarian ideals? The US is no different from any other superpower that has existed in history. It has a propaganda that it uses on its own citizens, and with lesser effect on the rest of the world, while its actions are almost always motivated by the self-interest of the ruling class. The land of the free systemically murdered the original inhabitants in vast numbers, while importing slaves. It cynically attacked Spain through the use of a false pretext (remember the Maine). It stayed out of both WWI and WWII for years, making huge amounts of money while doing so. It invaded Panama because of the canal, and overthrew elected governments around the world in order to install dictators friendly to it. It fought wars to sustain other dictators in power and treated entire nations as pawns in its strategic contests with the USSR and China. Its military routinely used weapons of (limited) mass destruction on civilian populations, including chemical warfare (remember agent orange? remember napalm? Remember the illegal bombings of Laos and Cambodia?)It dropped a second a-bomb, on Nagasaki, too soon after Hiroshima to expect the Japanese government to be able to assess the situation, and arguably did so to show Stalin that the US had more than 1 bomb and was prepared to be ruthless. It imprisoned its own citizens of Japanese descent in WWII. It turned away ships loaded with jewish refugees before WWII. It supports a brutal state in Israel without in any meaningful way attempting to force it to stop using reprisal methods for which The US and allies prosecuted Germans after WWII for committing war crimes. It maintained Jim Crow laws in much of the South for a hundred years after the Civil War, and now has a society in which socio-economic mobility is virtually non-existent and a plutocracy funds very effective campaigns that get the middle class voting against its own self-interest, to support the plutocrats. It has only a semblance of a civilized health care system. Many states actively disenfranchise entire classes of voters. It imprisons far more of its citizens than almost any other nation, and routinely, in some states, executes people. One of its leading jurists has said that it is better to execute an innocent man than disturb precedent, and he routinely speaks for the majority of the Supreme Court. Note that there is nothing exceptional about this. It doesn't make the US any worse, or any better, than any other super-power or indeed any other nation. Smaller nations, less powerful and lacking the resources to ever become so powerful, can claim a higher moral ground, but I don't have any illusions that that makes, say, Canadians, any 'better' as individuals than 'Americans'. I forget the name of the 19th century English stateman who said in relation to the Empire's foreign policy, and I paraphrase: England does not have friends...she has only interests Humans are tribal animals and we don't seem able to set aside the consequences of that even when our tribe is numbered in the hundreds of millions. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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