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  1. 1. Lead Prob



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A spade lead is less likely to blow up partner's holding there than a trump declarer's play in that suit. It also may work by leading through strength, or finding partner's strength, not possible on a lead into declarer's long suit.
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When an auction goes bang-crash-wallop into slam without any subtlety, it's either cold or relying on a bit of fortune. A guesstimate is that North has solid(ish) s, good trump support (but possibly missing an honour in s) and something outside in or . So a or lead is passive and will hand the initiative to declarer. A looks passive too - though it might turn out to be the winning lead (who knows?) - so I will plump for a and attack. Partner could have the A or Q and a trick outside the. Fortune favours the brave!
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When opener's shown weakness and nothing else, odds are good that responder has a long suit rather than a tonne of HCP.

 

Leading a looks like it (approx) gains when the opps have 11 tricks and S the Q or when P has the K over the ace and an outside entry.

Leading a looks like it gains (approx) when they have no first or second-round control, or when P has the Q and an outside entry.

 

The latter looks more likely to me.

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i guess just most agree that declarer will make if given the time. Partner needs a control and we need another trick. If I lead a club I need partner to have the Q and then something somewhere. Leading anything else seems to require more from partner. It's true that even if partner has the club Q and, say, the ace of spades this might not be enough. Declarer wins, draws trump, runs diamonds tossing clubs, gives up a spade. But a spade lead wouldn't do it then either.

 

So I lead a club.

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well I was declarer on this hand, leader, I think even by Hog's standard an expert, did lead a club

 

just wanted to see what others would've lead

 

full hand:

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sqjt6hakt987d732c&w=s9432h6d864ckt864&n=sa75hq52dkqj9caq7&e=sk8hj43dat5cj9532&d=e&v=e&b=6&a=p1hp2dp2hp4np5hp6hppp]399|300[/hv]

 

thanks,

 

Eagles

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Bird/Anthias would recommend a passive lead from an unbid suit here, assuming that the opponents are skilled enough to avoid bidding the slam off a cashing AK. This advice is given in their chapter on what to lead against small slams when responder has shown a useful side suit. Incidentally, if the two side suits have comparable top cards, the shorter is preferable. They would lead a spade here. Right again!
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When an auction goes bang-crash-wallop into slam without any subtlety, it's either cold or relying on a bit of fortune. A guesstimate is that North has solid(ish) s, good trump support (but possibly missing an honour in s) and something outside in or . So a or lead is passive and will hand the initiative to declarer. A looks passive too - though it might turn out to be the winning lead (who knows?) - so I will plump for a and attack. Partner could have the A or Q and a trick outside the. Fortune favours the brave!

I agree entirely.

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