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Strong hand behind a preempt - corrected version


Jinksy

  

39 members have voted

  1. 1. Pick a call for both vuls

    • NV - X
      2
    • NV - 3H
      0
    • NV - 3N
      1
    • NV - 4D
      0
    • NV - 4H
      34
    • NV - Other
      3
    • Vul - X
      2
    • Vul - 3H
      0
    • Vul - 3N
      0
    • Vul - 4D
      0
    • Vul - 4H
      36
    • Vul - Other
      1


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At IMPs (St Petersburg) LHO bids 3 and it's passed twice around to this:

 

x

AKQJ9xx

AQx

xx

 

Similar, but rather importantly different from the hand I originally gave! What's your call here?

 

(I completely messed up the original thread by getting the minors the wrong way around)

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Yeah, hopefully my comment from the other thread makes more sense now:

 

A bunch of decent players gave me funny looks when it drifted one off after P put down AJT9xxx T Tx Kxx, and on a C lead and D switch, I couldn't find a way to get rid of the loser.

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4 is the obvious call. I expect to make 10 or more tricks in hearts at least 85% of the time. Quite frankly, I am more worried about missing a slam than about going down in game.
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4 is the obvious call. I expect to make 10 or more tricks in hearts at least 85% of the time. Quite frankly, I am more worried about missing a slam than about going down in game.

 

I agree that it's the obvious call. That said, I wasn't mega-surprised given the running suit and stop in theirs that 3N is a much better game than 4H (laydown if P can play it), so I was wondering if anyone could offer a reason to find it.

 

Also, 85% seems very optimistic to me. I have 5 losers that I need P to cover 2+ of. The KD opposite is very unlikely, and any outstanding aces are likely to be with RHO, so my best chances of a good game are finding P with two bullets, or a stiff D and three trumps, or a bullet, stiff D and two trumps. None seem that likely, though I'd be surprised if they didn't easily sum to enough for it to be a good teams bid.

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I agree that it's the obvious call. That said, I wasn't mega-surprised given the running suit and stop in theirs that 3N is a much better game than 4H (laydown if P can play it), so I was wondering if anyone could offer a reason to find it.

I picked 3N NV, on the grounds that it was the most likely game to make. I was worried about all those 100s when V if I was wrong, though, since it could go very wrong when it went wrong, so I chickened out with 4H, like most others. But I wasn't entirely convinced by my own choices or reasons in either case.....

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