Double or Pass

[eagles123]

[hv=pc=n&s=sj8765hjt92d7ckj9&d=n&v=e&b=9&a=ppp2np6c]133|200[/hv]West very weak East very strong. 2n is 20-22 scoring =MP

 

double or no double?

is it close?

thanks,

 

Eagles

[kuhchung]

pass, not close

[MrAce]

PASS

[ArtK78]

A double may tell declarer how to play the slam. Clear pass.

 

 

[billw55]

A double may tell declarer how to play the slam. Clear pass.

This. Sometimes double will change +100 into +200. Other times it will change +100 to -1370. Lousy odds.

[rmnka447]

Pass!!!

 

Are the opponent's in a bad spot? Yes!

 

Might a double give the opponent's a clue how to play the hand? Yes

 

Might a double let the opponent's find a better place to play? Probably not, but 6 NT might be an alternative.

 

As the cards sit, you want to defend 6 ♣. If a double may allow the opponents to find a better contract or give potential information on how to play the hand, as here, then pass.

[neilkaz]

Easiest pass ever dealt to anyone.

[whereagles]

Surely RHO was dealt with ♣AQ.

 

I would dbl no sweat. Little to lose and lots to gain.

 

By the way, what does this mean? "West very weak East very strong."

[cherdano]

Did the passers see it's Matchpoints? I would double. I mean, it's possible RHO bid 6♣ on Q-7th and dummy shows up with ♣AT. But most of the time I am turning +100 into +200, and EW may go down at other tables, too.

[whereagles]

Did the passers see it's Matchpoints?

 

Not a passer, but actually I did. Anyway, it doesn't matter: if dummy comes up with a club honor, declarer was going to play me for the king anyway.

[akwoo]

After a good deal of thought which I wouldn't do at the table, I pass.

 

I think most of the field, say 70%, is at 6N. This means a wrong double takes us from 70% to 0%, whereas a correct double takes us from 65% (or even 80%, if there is say a round suit squeeze for 6N) to 100%. I'd double at even odds, but not at 2-1 against.

 

If the field is not in a slam, then it makes no difference what I do.

 

I can't imagine the field is actually in 6♣. I don't know a field that routinely manages to find minor suit slams over a 2N opening.

[Cthulhu D]

I open ekrens 3rd in. Having done that, I pass.

 

But more seriously, I like pass more than double. I don't think I get any vig from +200 vs +100 and if this and 6NT makes it costs - see Akwoo's reasoning. The biggest danger is it helps in the play of the hand. I don't have strong convictions though - Cherdano's logic, that the advantage in the play of the hand is low and I get some vig because matchpoints is quite reasonable too.

 

It's an evaluation question about what do you think is the field action vs the cost to the play, and that is hard to estimate and depends on a ton of things.

[whereagles]

Well, I really don't think 6♣= is going to be a good score for our side. Which is why I would dbl.

 

Maybe I'm wrong and 6NT is cold and the field is playing it. But I doubt.

[The_Badger]

hi Eagles,

 

I know exactly where you are coming from on this. Usually it is right to pass so as not to direct declarer's play BUT what exactly has happened with the bidding? East has passed vulnerable in 2nd spot, partner has opened 2NT in 4th (which could be a slightly shaded opening, 19 perhaps) and East has zoomed into 6 ♣ without further ado. What exactly is going on?

 

Why didn't East open, if he has enough to bid 6♣ direct? I believe some of the logic behind the 6♣ direct bid is that 3♣ is Stayman or Puppet, 4♣ is Gerber and 5♣ is a sign-off. So East had only one option available as finding keycards would have been tricky - bid 6♣ and hope for the best.

 

Which sorts of brings us to what sort of hand East may have for his bid. My guess is that he has a couple of controls, possibly a void, and a mediocre ♣ suit. (If the controls were in the ♣ suit then maybe East has a thin opening bid.)

 

All supposition, but I imagine East to have something like ♠void ♥Axx ♦Kxx ♣Q10xxxxx

 

A poor hand to pre-empt 3♣ vulnerable as an opening bid, but a reasonable hand to gamble 6 ♣ when partner opens 2NT.

 

But all in all, I still believe that pass is the best thing to do. You are under the 2NT bidder, and if you double you may certainly help him in the play. Remember that you have to discard first when he turns up with ♣ AQ and runs dummy's ♣ so you could be horribly squeezed after he rectifies the count, a ♣ winner being your side's only trick.

[cherdano]

What do the passers think East has? ♣T-7th and a 10 count? By a "very strong" player?

[GrahamJson]

No need to think about this. An automatic pass.

[Phil]

I'd double. RHO probably has a flawed preempt with 6-4 or 7-4. It's easily possible that LHO has the !cQ but their side suits are breaking horribly too.

 

I'm not sure if +50 or +100 is that great. Declarers in 3N will have a tough time as well.

[ArtK78]

What do the passers think East has? ♣T-7th and a 10 count? By a "very strong" player?

How about Q eighth? I don't know what this pair plays, but there are players who, for systemic or other reasons, can't open some number of clubs with a very long weak suit.

 

I wouldn't ask my opps about their methods, as the question might give away my club holding.

 

By the way, if the clubs are as I suggest, declarer may get them right anyway. But he will certainly get them right if we double.

[cherdano]

How about Q eighth? I don't know what this pair plays, but there are players who, for systemic or other reasons, can't open some number of clubs with a very long weak suit.

If RHO has Q-8th and LHO has Ax, then the odds are 7:1 that RHO has the T. I am happy to double with these odds.

[gszes]

X marks the spot. I need to be hugely clear that the club 9 is the deciding

factor as w/o that card I would consider pass automatic. The one suited

nature of rho hand makes it hugely unlikely the opps will suddenly be able

to make 6n without the club suit and for us not to score 2 club tricks with

this holding would be extremely unlucky. This is ALSO a MP decision vs an

IMP decision. If our x tips off declarer at MP it is merely one board. It this

happens at IMPS the outcome is significantly more dire and our X would probably

have to work be around 95% of the time and while I think it is over 80% it falls

well short of the 95%:)

[MrAce]

If RHO has Q-8th and LHO has Ax, then the odds are 7:1 that RHO has the T. I am happy to double with these odds.

 

Arend, you are looking at it in a vacuum. We all have been in this position so many times. Double will achieve either;

 

a-turn 100 to 200

b-doubled slam making which was always making.

c-doubled slam making when it could be defeated

d-they bid something else, such as 6 NT or 6♦ and it is probably cold if they do so, since pd seems to have very little if any. 5d+3h+3s+1cl or 4d+4s+3h+2cl or different combo of tricks. Good luck to you discarding on diamonds. You give declarer so much info that any end play, squeeze will be performed easily.

 

And LHO, who is a very good player, probably wanted the hog the hand or did not trust their own slam bidding tools and made a bold bid and already put themselves in a bad contract even if it is making.

[akwoo]

Well, I really don't think 6♣= is going to be a good score for our side. Which is why I would dbl.

 

Maybe I'm wrong and 6NT is cold and the field is playing it. But I doubt.

 

Are you really thinking that your side can make some part score?

 

If 6 ♣ = is a bad score for your side, then by the same reasoning, 6 ♣ -1 will be just as good a score for your side as 6♣X -1.

 

It's not the amount of downside that's important, but rather the ratio of upside to downside.

[Phil]

 

Arend, you are looking at it in a vacuum. We all have been in this position so many times. Double will achieve either;

 

a-turn 100 to 200

b-doubled slam making which was always making.

c-doubled slam making when it could be defeated

d-they bid something else, such as 6 NT or 6♦ and it is probably cold if they do so, since pd seems to have very little if any. 5d+3h+3s+1cl or 4d+4s+3h+2cl or different combo of tricks. Good luck to you discarding on diamonds. You give declarer so much info that any end play, squeeze will be performed easily.

 

And LHO, who is a very good player, probably wanted the hog the hand or did not trust their own slam bidding tools and made a bold bid and already put themselves in a bad contract even if it is making.

 

Arend is looking at this clearly.

 

a-turn 100 to 200 (great, we are turning an average plus into a top)

b-doubled slam making which was always making. (unfortunate, but we are probably turning a 10% board into a zero)

c-doubled slam making when it could be defeated (pretty inconceivable).

d-they bid something else, such as 6 NT or 6♦ and it is probably cold if they do so (even more inconceivable. Who will pull? The balanced 20 or the hand with the short diamonds?)

 

But don't forget:

 

e-the other tables are in 3N going down, and we are getting a much better bonus (per 'a' above).

[MrAce]

Arend is looking at this clearly.

 

a-turn 100 to 200 (great, we are turning an average plus into a top)

b-doubled slam making which was always making. (unfortunate, but we are probably turning a 10% board into a zero)

c-doubled slam making when it could be defeated (pretty inconceivable).

d-they bid something else, such as 6 NT or 6♦ and it is probably cold if they do so (even more inconceivable. Who will pull? The balanced 20 or the hand with the short diamonds?)

 

But don't forget:

 

e-the other tables are in 3N going down, and we are getting a much better bonus (per 'a' above).

 

It's not really unfortunate. It happens all the time. Especially when it is your LHO who opened 2 NT. Any Axx- AT-Qx with LHO will do it. I mean you can sit and excuse yourself saying that it is unfortunate but do not expect others to see it the way you see it. Do not tell me people don't bid 6 with a suit of Axxxxx vs a 2 NT opener. They don't do it very often but the odds that they would do vs a weak player in order to hog the hand or prevent an accident are increased. Or they may be simply guessing that pd will hold some values in club suit. Or they may be in need of a good board. Or RHO may be frustrated with his pd the previous round and trying silly things.

 

And you contradict yourself when you say "probably turning % 10 to %0" Because if this is the case, double is turning %90 to %100. I mean LOL...when they go down doubled it becomes an average score turning into a top, but when they make %10 to %0? Cmon now, you can make better replies than that. http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif

 

EDIT: In fact I do not see much of a good reason, if any, for doubling. Look at your hand, if it is bad slam you are in good shape for going plus. If it is a slam that everyone will bid, it may be making, if not it may be makeable after double. Ohh and about running to 6♦ or 6 NT, it does not matter whether they can or not, you are giving them a life out of nowhere. There is a good chance that they already ended up in bad slam and with slow bidding other pairs ended up in 6♦ or 6 NT making, which means your double (if it does not let them make due to dbl and get a good zero) will achieve turning %90 to %100 at best.

[PhantomSac]

Timo is exactly right, if when we double and it is cold we are turning a 10 % into a zero, that indirectly means that doubling is terrible.