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slam lead problem #1243


whereagles

  

13 members have voted

  1. 1. lead?

    • trump
      0
    • heart ace
      11
    • diamond
      1
    • club
      1
    • small heart? (lol)
      0


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On similarly uninformative auctions, Bird and Anthias found ace leads stood way out. Only thing to deter you from one here is P's failure to X 5, but I wouldn't personally do so with less than KJ in the suit, so I doubt that's much of a factor. Your best chance is prob hitting P with a singleton anyway.
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heart ace

 

Declarer either has long dia or long hearts. If they have

long diamonds (along with Kx of hearts) we need the red suits

to split in a way that will not allow declarer to toss enough

hearts on the diamonds to avoid 2 heart losers. That is asking

quite a bit though our club distribution increases the chances

of that holding from happening.

If declarer has long hearts the opening heart ace followed by

a heart might be the winner outright if p can ruff trick 2 and might

even be a winner if p has Q(x) of spades and dummy hits with AJ(xx) or

KJ(xx) of spades and a singleton heart (declarer might ruff with the top

spade and then lead the J intending to finesse p out of their supposed

Q(xx) of spades). Winning a trick with the trump TEN in the opps ten card

trump suit would rate to be a strong morale boosting experience :))))))))

 

Even odder if p has 2 hearts declarer might still ruff high and misguess

how to play spades figuring we would only lead the heart ace of we were

trying t give p a ruff (and they would be right about that anyway)

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Heart Ace, but with no real conviction at imps. (Better at matchpoints--could be worth something to stop the overtrick if slam can't be beaten). Wouldn't be surprised if a club turns out right. A diamond would surprise me--it would be a better lead if partner had the quick entry. No reason I can see for a trump. A low heart against a slam with these cards--if I have a substantial bet on opponents winning this tournament.

 

P.S. A real advertizement for uninformative auctions: slam makes whenever it should, and a fair amount of the time it shouldn't if you can't find the right lead.

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You may argue pard should have doubled 5. But the fact is he didn't.

An argument against doubling is that if partner's red suits were switched, they would want the A lead. And, of course, north must pass in tempo, or there will be unauthorized info.

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. . . .

P.S. A real advertizement for uninformative auctions: slam makes whenever it should, and a fair amount of the time it shouldn't if you can't find the right lead.

A real advertisement for cue bidding against a good field when possibly missing a cashing AK combination in a possible suit slam auction. With only the A in opening leader's hand 85% of those polled found the winning lead. 100% would find the lead if they had AK. With the AK in hearts in third hand it is mandatory to double 5 for the lead. If the A is in 3rd hand in a minor the absence of the heart double it is at least a 50% chance for a set(50% lead from cashing K + 50% leads from singleton. Only in the odd case where the missing A is in third hand and W does not double the heart reply to KKB will we miss cashing the first two tricks when we have cashing AK. Altogether it is less than a 40% slam missing a cashing AK combination.

 

It should be noted that the OP responder's bid took up all space below game for cue bidding, so there is no room for below game slam tries, and so all cue bidding must be above game, so there was possible ambiguity in finding the missing AK combination.

 

P.S. On this side of the pond the word is spelled "advertisement." Use an American spell checker. In Arizona, like Ohio, English is not spoken, only understood.

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