When you know the fineses aren't working

[Fluffy]

[hv=pc=n&w=st62ht654da93ct65&e=sakj7haq72dkq5ca7&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1cppdp1hp4hppp]266|200[/hv]

 

Lead is ♣3 (3rd/5th), what's your plan?

[madhu1955]

Duck the first C, take the second, D to A, C ruff,DK cashed, HA, HQ,hope that Opener started with Doubleton D

[awm]

I see two lines of play. They both start the same:

 

Duck the first club, win the second. Diamond to ace and club ruff. Cash both top diamonds. North will not be short in diamonds (given the 1♣ opening) and it does not help south to ruff (he will have to either return a heart into AQ or a spade into AKJ or give a ruff and discard for the spade loser).

 

At this point we have two options:

 

1. Ace of heart, queen of heart. This works if South started with ♥Kx, as he will be endplayed and forced to give us a spade trick (either by leading a spade or by giving a ruff and discard) and we will lose only one club and two hearts. It also works if South started with ♥Kxx, since the jack has fallen under the queen and we can pull the last trump with the ten (losing one heart, one club, one spade).

 

2. Low heart. This works if South started with ♥KJx, as he wins and is now forced to either lead into the hearts or spades, or give a ruff and discard for the spade loser. If North wins the ♥J, a minor suit return only helps me, so assume he returns a major; I plan to play ♥A next to pick up South with ♥Kx initially.

 

Since both lines work if south has ♥Kx, the question is which is more likely, South with ♥KJx or South with ♥Kxx. A priori they have equal odds (same number of combinations). However, if North has any points at all in the minors (say he has a minor suit jack) then assuming South doesn't normally open flat 11s he is marked with the ♥J. Of course there's a good chance I can tell who has the minor suit honors from the play to the first six tricks; if South has them all it's a pure guess but otherwise line 2 seems substantially better.

[ggwhiz]

I would first start with Ace and another club instead of ducking to put added pressure on south to duck or find an exit.

 

If they don't find a diamond out (club instead) I may be able to tighten the screws and get some help in diving the shape from less than perfect defense.

[the hog]

It looks clear to duck the first C, with the return, cross to dummy and ruff the last C. Winning the first C and exiting a C is pointless as a third C is likely to be returned. Now I will cash 3 Ds and exit Ace and a low H

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&w=st62ht654da93ct65&e=sakj7haq72dkq5ca7&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1cppdp1hp4hppp]266|200|

Lead is ♣3 (3rd/5th), what's your plan?

[/hv]

Guess: Win ♣A. Duck a ♣. Ruff the ♣ continuation. Cash ♦AKQ. Cash ♠AK. Play ♠T and hope for the best :)

[kenrexford]

I have a preference on how to play clubs, but I don't feel that strongly.

 

I have a stronger position in playing the red suits. I will cash the trump Ace and then three rounds of diamonds. If Opener has Kx in trumps and 4225, he can ruff the third diamond if he wants. If KJx in hearts and 4315 or 4324, same thing. If Kxx, I am ok with that, as I guess wrong in trumps anyway.

[PhantomSac]

I mean yeah I'm sure you'd be really happy if he ruffed with KJx of hearts since that's the only way to let you make.

 

edit: assuming you stripped clubs first which you did not say but implied heh.

[whereagles]

I would go with Ron's line.

[GrahamJson]

N is marked with a club honour by the lead, almost certainly the Q. This gives S a poor 11 count, so he must have some shape. He can't have 6 clubs, playing 3rd and 5th, so presumably 5 clubs and possibly a 4 card major, or maybe 3145. So 3 rounds of clubs, I don't think it matters much if you duck or win the first trick, then cash diamonds. If S follows all the way then either QS or aH honour will drop. If he ruffs a D he has no good exit. If he started with KJxx in H I think you are always going off.

[Fluffy]

If you want to make when north has ♥Jx, ♥Jxx or ♥xxx it is very easy, just win ♥A, come to hand with ♦A and lead a heart from hand.

[The_Badger]

Let's think outside the (bidding) box for a moment. We all know players who open in 1st with trashy 11-12 counts, and the vulnerability may be a factor too, but let's just think about South's hand. Most players worth their salt may open on semi-trash, but at least they will have a sensible rebid available if partner responds without the opps. intervening. This sort of suggests (as Graham pointed out)that South is more likely to be shapely. I am inclined to play him for 4315 distribution, or even 5215 with 5♠s and 5♣s as technically 1♣ is the correct opening bid. Not guaranteed. As for ducking the first ♣, that in itself is technically the right thing to do. The opps. may not continue ♣ and that, in itself, may provide the clue in how to play the hand.