Bad bidding or bad luck

[dickiegera]

[hv=pc=n&w=s953hk65daq72cj52&e=sakqha9743dk53c84&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=1np3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

South held AQxxx in clubs and NS took the first 5 tricks in NT.

The board was played 6 times the scores being 3@450 ,3@200 and us at -50.

Diamonds were 3-3. Those in 4♥ lost only a heart and a club.

 

THE BOOK says to open 1NT with 16pts and a 5 card major and

THE BOOK says to bid 3NT with a 3-3-4-3 hand after partner opens 1NT.

 

WE play puppet stayman [ 1NT -3 Clubs]

 

Were we the victim of bad bidding or bad luck?

[Jinksy]

Bit of both. There's 4333s and 4333s. If you have KQ9 xxx AQxx xxx and you don't bid five-card Stayman planning to play in 4♠ if a partner shows them, then you probably shouldn't bother playing it. This is milder, but as responder it's the ♠s that worry me. Jxx in a minor can look after itself most of the time, but if P is weak in ♠s and it goes 1N 3N, I expect them to find a ♠ lead. With two suits weak, it's maybe still worth a look.

 

I prefer MickyB/Meckwell's 5-card Stayman variant, which gives less away on the 95% of hands you don't find a worthwhile fit, and playing that I would certainly bid it (2N). Here... meh.

 

But opening 1♥ is awful.

[steve2005]

I never understood jumping to 3N on 4333 hands. What likely happens is you have a 3 card suit opposite a doubleton. So if you have none or one stopper in that suit your likely in trouble.

[ArtK78]

[hv=pc=n&w=s953hk65daq72cj52&e=sakqha9743dk53c84&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=1np3nppp]266|200[/hv]

 

South held AQxxx in clubs and NS took the first 5 tricks in NT.

The board was played 6 times the scores being 3@450 ,3@200 and us at -50.

Diamonds were 3-3. Those in 4♥ lost only a heart and a club.

 

THE BOOK says to open 1NT with 16pts and a 5 card major and

THE BOOK says to bid 3NT with a 3-3-4-3 hand after partner opens 1NT.

 

WE play puppet stayman [ 1NT -3 Clubs]

 

Were we the victim of bad bidding or bad luck?

What book says to open 1NT with 16 HCP and a 5 card major suit?

 

I can understand choosing to open 1NT and thus getting to the clearly inferior 3NT, but not being in any position to exercise judgment whether to open 1NT or 1♥ is just plain wrong.

 

I would open 1♥ on the East hand. It is a suit oriented hand with controls and a weak doubleton. The only reason that you might want to open 1NT on the East hand is to protect the ♦K, but at the same time you are exposing partner's hoped for values in clubs.

 

If you play puppet stayman over 1NT, then why not use it on the West hand? Just because it is 4333? If you won't use puppet stayman on the West hand, you had better not open 1NT on the East hand.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

I would have opned 1H, I can understand 1NT.

I would have used 3C, but I can understand 3NT.

 

Having taken the road you describe, I simply would shrug

it off, as long as you always open 1NT with the East hand,

always bid 3NT with the West hand.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[whereagles]

The book is probably right on statistical grounds. This is just a systemic (negative) random fluctuation.

[the_clown]

100% bad luck IMHO, I would have duplicated your bidding.

[neilkaz]

100% bad luck IMHO, I would have duplicated your bidding.

Me too, the principles of camouflage do often work out in bridge. This time they didn't. Sometimes you will find your 5-3 fit via puppet and 9 tricks is the limit of the hand since there's nothing to ruff in dummy and you have only 26 hcp. Other times you may get scuttled by a 4-1 trump fit.

 

What do you rebid after a 1♠ response if you open 1♥? How about after a 1NT response?

 

You pays your money and you takes your chances and I'll pay mine on opening 1NT and not using puppet to give the defense more info.

[ggwhiz]

I too would have the same auction and shrug off the result.

 

The style is comfortable to my partner and myself and wins much more often than it loses.

 

For interest, take 1 pt away from responder and we might have an auction of

 

1nt - 2♣

2♥ - 2nt (invitational, denies 4 spades (we bid 2♠ with that)

3♥ for us shows 5 hearts and is forcing, accepting the invite.

 

So in my partnership your responder was one lousy jack away from landing in the making game.

[kuhchung]

you still have an out if hearts are 4-1, clubs 4-4, and diamonds 3-3 :)

[mike777]

matter of style.

 

prefer to open 1h with xx in a side suit. I may or may not have a problem next round.

[y66]

1N 3N seems normal given your agreements.

[the hog]

There are 1NT openings with 5 card Ms and there are 1NT openings with 5 card Ms. Normally I have no hesitation about opening 1NT , 5 card M or not withstanding. However this hand is a bit different; it reeks of playing in a suit. Opening 1NT here shows poor judgement. Responder should certainly use puppet stayman.

[whereagles]

hmmm.. that the hand is more suit-oriented is clear. However, I wouldn't evade a systemic opening on grounds of a mere suspicion (that suit may be better).

 

I've seen players like Kit Woolsey doing it, but somehow their example hand always turns out nicely... http://www.bridgebase.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/default/cool.gif

[MrAce]

Auto 1 NT for me by E hand. and auto 3 NT by W.

 

There is only 1 downside of opening 1 NT with 5 card major that matters to me, and it is when we hold 2 card in the other M and play 5-2 fit with weak hands when 5-3 was available. But I still open them all 1 NT. It has a lot more advantages than downsides and it gives comfort to auctions when we open 1M.

[PhantomSac]

Don't play puppet stayman if you feel the need to use it with 4333, you'll do better without it.

 

As far as opening 1N vs 1H, of course that is a style/system thing. If your system is such that you open 1N then do so (I love such a style but I am from USA#1 so that's just how I was raised). Sometimes you don't get to the best contract, that does not necessarily mean someone did something wrong.

[sassan]

Victim of the bad THE BOOK.

 

No reponder jumps to 4♥ with 13HCP after 1♥ opening these days, 3NT by West is the same horrible thing. After all, responder's task is to get more info and put the partnership in the best contract, isn't it?

[phoenix214]

Bad luck, there is also the second point that 5332 vs 4333 plays better in NT than in 4M, the time when 4M loses, is when you have a suit which is not stopped when you can win 10 tricks otherwise.

There is also the possibility that you are off 4 top tricks in 4M, everything has its risks.

Id personally prefer the 1N-3N road, and if it goes -1, bad luck, next time it happens, 4H will go off because missing 4 tricks while you make 3nt..

Remember that you cant land in the correct spot 100% of the time. You have to be in the right spot most of the time.

[humilities]

Sometimes bridge is a crapshoot. Interchange West's diamonds and clubs, and I'd prefer taking 9 tricks to 10. There's no way to make that determination with natural bidding methods, and even if you could, would you really want to give that much direction to the defense?

 

I think your bidding was fine ... maybe 1H is 2% better, maybe puppet stayman is 3% better, I don't know. If you're looking to improve your game there's probably more significant items to spend brain cycles on... :)

[helene_t]

I never understood jumping to 3N on 4333 hands. What likely happens is you have a 3 card suit opposite a doubleton. So if you have none or one stopper in that suit your likely in trouble.

There is probably no way of checking for the stopper, let alone finding a playable spot when the stopper turns out not to be there. Even if you designed a system around showing small trippletons and scrambling for a 3M contract in a 4-3 fit when the stopper is not there, you would hurt yourself by telling the opponents how to lead and defend.

 

Maybe this poor 10-count is only worth an invite. In that case, opener could chose to show the heart suit instead of simply accepting the invite.

[WesleyC]

Good Bidding, Bad Luck.

 

On some days south holds [xx QJTx xxx AKxx] and you get to celebrate!

[beowulf]

A bit of bad luck, but also I think 1NT is wrong on the East hand. Yes, it is a balanced 16-count, and yes, you have weak hearts, and yes, you have three spades (so if partner transfers to spades while holding three hearts you won't be in the wrong major).

 

BUT, opening 1NT with a five-card major should still (IMO) show a hand that is notrump-oriented. You have all your values outside of clubs. The actual result wasn't all that surprising.

 

Also, if you play Puppet Stayman because you frequently open 1NT with a 5-card major, then why not invoke it to find out.

[Jinksy]

Maybe this poor 10-count is only worth an invite. In that case, opener could chose to show the heart suit instead of simply accepting the invite.

 

Sounds resultsy to me. It's not that bad a 10-count - at least you have a working diamond suit. Plus if your invite is 2♠, you're likely to make things worse for yourself by giving LHO a chance to double.

[PhantomSac]

 

 

Also, if you play Puppet Stayman because you frequently open 1NT with a 5-card major, then why not invoke it to find out.

 

Because you are 4333? More often than not 4333 opp 5332 will play better in 3N. Yes, it's possible that 4M will be better because you are off a suit and have 10 tricks, but a lot of the time since you won't take a trick with a ruff 3N will have as many tricks as 4M.

 

As for "opening 1H because it's a suit oriented hand" that's great, I'm sure everyone who said that has methods to show this hand (notably gazilli). Because without methods I don't really relish the thought of opening 1H and rebidding 2D and passing 2H (nor do I like opening 1H and rebidding 2D and bidding 2N after a preference). I don't like 1H p 2x p ?, there is not a great way to show this hand type (though I'm sure you all have methods like 2N showing extras to enable you to open 1H). How about 1H p 1S p ? That really sucks, I guess we all play gazilli. How about something like 1H 1S X 2S ? I guess 2N shows this since we might open 1H with this, and with a bal 18 we bid 3N?

 

And you know what, even if you play all of that, you have still lost something in the process. There are lots of advnatages to eliminating a certain NT range from your opening bids. For instance I don't know if any of you include xx xxx AKJ AKT9x into a 1C opener. Personally, I'd prefer to be able to open 1C on that. Unfortunately most bidding systems don't allow you to show a bal 15 after opening 1C (assuming strong NT). A 1M opener is different since there are more gains to opening 1M on hands like that (like finding a major suit partial) but it still is hard to deny eliminating a bal 15-16 from a 1M opener helps the rest of your system/competitive auctions even if you have great agreements. That is why a lot of people just open 1N with a 5332 16 regardless of suit oriented or not, because the strain of including it in your system in uncontested and contested auctions is pretty big, esp if it's optional.

 

Certainly it is playable either way (though you need better followup methods if you open 1M), but the idea of bidding puppet stayman with 4333 (or regular stayman, or puppet then show your 4 card major) is really terrible even if you (like me) open 1N with AK AKJxx xxx xxx.

 

Creating a thread about having these hands and going 1N 3N and having a bunch of people say you shouldnt bid 1N or you shouldnt bid 3N or blah blah is missing the point. Sometimes pairs take probabilistic actions that don't work. Sometimes pairs open something that in a vacuum you would not but because it is required by your system or you gain enough from the whole system concept that it's worth it. I mean everyone here seems to love fantunes, they open 1N on 4441 and 5242, that is clearly terrible but they do it for the rest of their system to work. It is a trade off.

 

Another example is playing 14-16 NT that 1M p 1N p 2x shows 4. That means you have to open 1N on AKQTx xx Axx xxx (or open 1S and pass 1N and miss game sometimes). That sucks. But you gain a lot by 2m showing 4. Also playing semi forcing NT it sucks when you have 7 hearts or 3 spades and a 5 count and you respond 1N and it goes all pass. But you can't really post a hand and be like yo who bid it wrong when the worst part of your system occurs. The worst part of your system sometimes happens to make the whole unit better.

[Wackojack]

I thought I would do a quick and slightly unscientific study using Playbridge deal generator. I put in Openers hand as it was and constrained responders hand to exactly 10 points and with the type of distribution that would raise 1NT directly to 3NT. Viz: 2-3♠, 2-3♥, 2-4♦, 2-4♣.

Saved as FR8126Q

Results from 32 boards:

 

5-2 ♥ fit on 5 hands, 4 making 3N, 1 down 1 when 4♥ was also down 1.

Responder had 4 clubs on 31 hands, 1 club on 1 hand (Q107), and 2 clubs on zero hands.

 

After an admittedly quick eyeballing of the hands this is what I saw:

Of the 27 hands with a 5-3 fit:

12 3N and 4♥ made

9 3N and 4♥ down

6 3N made 4♥ down

0 3N down 4♥ made

 

So if partner has a 4333 distribution and 10HCP:

 

1. Do not worry that partner will not have a club stop. This is will be extremely rare and partners 4 card suit is very likely to be clubs.

 

2. If you open 1NT on this hand and partner responds 3NT you will make it about 70% of the time.

 

3. If alternatively you open 1♥ on this hand and get to 4♥ when partner has 3 card support, you will make it only about 45% of the time.

 

 

Amen to Justins post above