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balance over weak 2


whereagles

  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. your bid?

    • obv pass
      15
    • dbl (lebenshol by 6th applies)
      2
    • 2S
      0
    • not so obv pass
      6


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I decided obv pass was a tad better than close pass :))) since the reward side

was sort of thin even if the area was kind of large while the risk side was

still quite strong. At MP I would x with little fanfare since the most I risk is

1 board and I expect x to succeed close to 65% (making or off 1 no x). The problem

at IMPS is when the other 35% kick in we could be talking large negatives that

may take quite a few hand one overtrick at a time to make up:(

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The heart length means that partner probably has shortage (unless its 6-3-1-3 around the table) so its likely that he doesn't have anything good. Combined with the poor shape I'd pass but it would get some thought at the table.

 

I actually think partners pass indicates length in hearts or rho has enough strength to try to buy it in 2. The downside to bidding is much to large for me at imps should rho have medium or better values with a stiff heart.

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I'm a passer.

 

Unless opener is a very aggressive 2 bidder who bids on 5 s a lot, it looks like there are 4 missing between partner and "responder". At favorable vulnerability for them, it would seem like responder would raise on most hands with 3 s. Since that hasn't happened, I think the odds favor either 2-2 distribution or partner having 3 s. If they are 2-2, then partner doesn't appear to have enough to overcall or double. If partner has 3 to nothing then it looks like potentially 3 quick losers in s. If partner has 3 to a stopper, then partner probably has less than enough for a 2 NT call.

 

You have a 9 loser hand despite the 11 points and 2 1/2 QTs. Even if partner has a 7 loser hand (i.e. about an opener), it suggests that 8 tricks may be the limit your side can make.

 

Responder can still have a pretty good hand when holding only 2 and pass. So at red pockets, discretion seems to dictate a pass rather than competing to the 3 level.

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I solved the "obvious pass" thing by thinking it is obvious to me; but, knowing it might not be obvious to others.

 

Justin, back when he was JLALL, i believe, explained that when he called an action "clear" or "obvious"..he didn't necessarily mean he hadn't seriously considered alternatives before coming to that conclusion.

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I hate passing but I must as I have so many losers in this flat hand.

That's one way of looking at it. A nine LTC hand, with no assurance that is accurate because no fit is established for us. Silly me, I just counted my 3 hearts. But, I prefer to be an optimist...count it as a 2-winner hand..so, if partner can contribute 6 fillers we are in business.

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